LSU2001 wrote:By nail do you mean enhance the chances of RI or decrease the chance of RI?
Enhance it.
ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Enhance it.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hasn't it already classified as RI?? If not how much more would it have to go up to be considered RI? and what would it take for ERI?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Big cold pool at 550mb to the west of Delta.
This indicates high lapse rate and therefore lift.
The infeed of high TPW air being injected into Delta from Gamma is hitting this creating the enhanced convection.
Big old Carnot heat engine is firing on all cylinders.
This indicates high lapse rate and therefore lift.
The infeed of high TPW air being injected into Delta from Gamma is hitting this creating the enhanced convection.
Big old Carnot heat engine is firing on all cylinders.
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Keldeo1997
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
18z HWRF is showing a 935mb Yucatan landfall but even that maybe too conservative for peak intensity. Simu IR suggests T7.0+
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Not nearly as much of a pressure drop as last time, but this pass might be enough for Delta to be upgraded to a hurricane.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Anybody else getting Wilma vibes?
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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hammy wrote:Anybody else getting Wilma vibes?
We have been getting it all day today...
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:https://i.ibb.co/TL9xcw2/ezgif-com-resize-4.gif
Eyewall alert
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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shiny-pebble
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:Not nearly as much of a pressure drop as last time, but this pass might be enough for Delta to be upgraded to a hurricane.
I would imagine it's trying to mix winds down. Very very low pressure for a TS/C1. We might not see huge pressure drops for the next few hours like we did this evening.
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Not an meteorologist! Just someone who is interested in weather. Please refer to the NHC and local weather officials to make decisions.
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Keldeo1997
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:Hammy wrote:Anybody else getting Wilma vibes?
We have been getting it all day today...
I think I was the first to say it.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
985.6 to 973.6 mbar extrapolated between 19:38z and 22:56z yields a mean intensification rate of 2.8 mb/hr, which could get back up to ~4 mbar/hr as the eyewall further solidifies. This rate of intensification is fast enough for Delta to be in the mid to low 940s by 7am tomorrow morning.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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EquusStorm
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It's rare that it can be said category five is actually a distinct possibility, but this may be one of those cases IF the eyewall completely closes off and it keeps deepening for 36 hours or so... ridiculous to think this thing was only named overnight
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
New VDM confirms a closed eyewall with Delta. Pressure down to 981 mb.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
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