ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

The next 24 hours are going to be wild...and extremely suspenseful for those in the Yucatan.

I think they need to be preparing for a Cat 5, because that is what it is looking like it could very well be, with the likely hood of a 60 Knot increase in speed at 60+%

[us89]

We'll see what the dropsonde says, but going off extrapolated surface pressures from the two center passes, Delta is currently deepening at a rate of almost 4 mb/hr.

Wow.

[aspen]

We'll see what the dropsonde says, but going off extrapolated surface pressures from the two center passes, Delta is currently deepening at a rate of almost 4 mb/hr.

Wow.

You beat me to it. I just calculated a pressure drop of 4.08 mb/hr between the two passes, separated by 1hr 46min. This is the steepest pressure drop this year (surpassing Amphan’s 3 mb/hr), and if this continues for another 18 hours, Delta will be approaching 900 mbar.

[CrazyC83]

978 mb, but winds are still under hurricane intensity

I don't know if this is a record for the lowest pressure recorded in a Tropical Storm

In the deep tropics, fairly close. In storms in higher latitudes, I've seen much lower - as low as about 960 - while below hurricane intensity.

[RL3AO]

Probably not Wilma 2, but damn if this dont feel familiar. Probably because the Western Caribbean has been so quiet.

[EquusStorm]

This one has 'that' feeling, folks; look how fast this is dominating the Caribbean but with such a tiny compact core. Dry air intrusion could always break down a nascent eyewall and throw a wrench in things, but unless that happens, classic WCarib October monster coming up after a near decade break.

[tigerz3030]

Models moved west today, is it too early think if this turns into
Michael 2.0?? My in-laws were hit hard with Cat 5 winds in
SW GA! I’m wanting them to watch carefully for sure

[DestinHurricane]

Models moved west today, is it too early think if this turns into
Michael 2.0?? My in-laws were hit hard with Cat 5 winds in
SW GA! I’m wanting them to watch carefully for sure

It could possibly shift east but it won't be cat 5 landfall, water is too cold. However, it could be a cat 2 landfall with cat 3 surge.

Also no one got cat 5 winds in SW GA. Cat 2 winds in that area during mike. The only cat 5 winds were directly on the coast in eastern Bay county.

[ElectricStorm]

We'll see what the dropsonde says, but going off extrapolated surface pressures from the two center passes, Delta is currently deepening at a rate of almost 4 mb/hr.

Wow.

You beat me to it. I just calculated a pressure drop of 4.08 mb/hr between the two passes, separated by 1hr 46min. This is the steepest pressure drop this year (surpassing Amphan’s 3 mb/hr), and if this continues for another 18 hours, Delta will be approaching 900 mbar.

With the conditions and SST's it's got over the next couple of days, 900 could actually be a possibility. I know it's still early and I try not to over hype any storms but this one just seems prime to become a monster. I'll be more surprised if it doesn't become a Cat 4/5 then if it actually does. Either way, I don't know exactly how populated the eastern Yucatan is but they need to get out of there if they can. This storm is no joke. Praying for everyone that will be affected by this thing.

[supercane4867]

With more than 10 years of untapped energy awaiting ahead, the Caribbean is putting up a show.

[Blinhart]

Models moved west today, is it too early think if this turns into
Michael 2.0?? My in-laws were hit hard with Cat 5 winds in
SW GA! I’m wanting them to watch carefully for sure

It could possibly shift east but it won't be cat 5 landfall, water is too cold. However, it could be a cat 2 landfall with cat 3 surge.

Also no one got cat 5 winds in SW GA. Cat 2 winds in that area during mike. The only cat 5 winds were directly on the coast in eastern Bay county.

The water isn't too cold for a Cat 5 in the GoM, like I said earlier the water is 79+ in the whole GoM, and most of the cool water is within 100 miles of the Coast so that is the only spot that can have a slight effect on a system, but it all depends on how strong this system gets before it gets to this very small area of cooler water (but definitely not cold). Just got to hope for the wind shear to have some type of effect on this system.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Probably not Wilma 2, but damn if this dont feel familiar. Probably because the Western Caribbean has been so quiet.

Both were in October, had a similar structure, and a similar wind/pressure relationship at this point in development.

[Blinhart]

With more than 10 years of untapped energy awaiting ahead, the Caribbean is putting up a show.

https://i.imgur.com/ajFuKDj.gif

Definitely looks like this system has the potential to become a very large and powerful system, with inflow from the Pacific over Panama and Gamma making sure that the dry air is taken away .

[Hypercane_Kyle]

With more than 10 years of untapped energy awaiting ahead, the Caribbean is putting up a show.

https://i.imgur.com/ajFuKDj.gif

I believe Sandy (2012) was the last major hurricane in the western Caribbean.

[ClarCari]

What’s even more scary is regardless how much of a monster this becomes, there will still be plentyyyyyy of very warm SST’s the second half of the month when things are really supposed to light up again (as if it isn’t lighting up already). Many of us weren’t expecting something with this much potential until a little later...which may very well still happen .....

[supercane4867]

With more than 10 years of untapped energy awaiting ahead, the Caribbean is putting up a show.

https://i.imgur.com/ajFuKDj.gif

I believe Sandy (2012) was the last major hurricane in the western Caribbean.

Sandy was more like central Caribbean. The last major in that region east of Yucatan was Rina in 2011, which was barely a major. The last real one was Dean wayyy back in 07.

[MississippiWx]

Wow. The structure has improved dramatically the past couple of hours. Buckle up.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like the NOAA plane's done. AF on the way

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow. The structure has improved dramatically the past couple of hours. Buckle up.

[Airboy]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 21:48Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 26 in 2020
Storm Name: Delta (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 17

A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 21:24:57Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.26N 79.32W
B. Center Fix Location: 206 statute miles (331 km) to the SW (234°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,966m (9,731ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 235° at 9kts (From the SW at 10mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 64kts (73.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNE (22°) of center fix at 21:22:38Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 112° at 63kts (From the ESE at 72.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) of center fix at 21:22:03Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 61kts (70.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the SSW (208°) of center fix at 21:30:33Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 305° at 55kts (From the NW at 63.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (215°) of center fix at 21:31:35Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,071m (10,075ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) from the flight level center at 21:22:03Z