ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

Recon appears to be going in for another center pass.

[GCANE]

Drop was 984 mb

[ConvergenceZone]

Whether this is a tropical storm or a minimal hurricane when it landfalls along the Gulf Coast is the only question. So it is fun to watch it RI Strengthen just as long as it doesn't hit Cuba........It's much easier to enjoy it just knowing how quickly it's going to get shredded once it gets into the Central Gulf.

[TheProfessor]

The cone should not be ignored, it gives a solid idea of the possible areas where the center of the storm can track. However, it should be known that impacts occur outside the cone so you shouldn't use the cone as a source on whether or not you need prepare. Instead you should continue to keep track of NHC forecasts and read their discussions. Following the information from local NWS office is also very helpful.

[ElectricStorm]

Whether this is a tropical storm or a minimal hurricane when it landfalls along the Gulf Coast is the only question. So it is fun to watch it RI Strengthen just as long as it doesn't hit Cuba........It's much easier to enjoy it just knowing how quickly it's going to get shredded once it gets into the Central Gulf.

Eh maybe... The stronger it gets though before entering the gulf (if it misses Cuba and the Yucatan), I would think the shear would not weaken it all the way down to a TS, it will significantly weaken for sure but maybe not that weak when it comes in. Hopefully it won't be anything more than a TS at landfall though.

[DestinHurricane]

So much for my vacation and comp days this week... Delta is tracking west of south now, but should be turning NW soon. Adjusted my landfall point west to eastern Vermilion Bay mid afternoon Friday. Could be a hurricane at landfall, but I do think it will be weakening due to a combination of wind shear, dry air, and cooler water after it makes the N-NNE turn early Friday.

Hmmmm, so you're putting SE Texas in the cone now?

Beaumont is in the "cone" but that is absolutely irrelevant. The cone does not define either track uncertainty in this case or Delta's wind field. All the cone identifies is typical track error over the past 5 seasons. It never changes all season long for each storm and for each advisory. Ignore the cone! With a SW-NE jet stream along the TX coast Thu/Fri, we should be "protected". Also, Delta will be a relatively small hurricane, with hurricane force winds extending only about 20-25 miles west of the track. Finally, new guidance indicates landfall may be delayed until late Friday evening. All models do indicate significant weakening after it makes the NNE turn on Friday.

Do not ignore the cone! The cone is an estimation of where the center will track, they can not pin down an exact track this early but the cone gives people an idea of where the center will track. The cone is for the track, not impacts. Hazardous conditions can extend well outside the cone. For wind, the NHC has another product called wind speed probabilities that give people the % chance they will experience TS, 50kt, and hurricane winds.

[ColdMiser123]

Drop was 984 mb

10 kt of surface wind, so that supports 983 mb for the 5 pm advisory.

Extrapolated pressure was actually a tad high compared to the actual dropsonde pressure, which is somewhat unusual.

[SoupBone]

Not the GFS or parallel.

Don't know what you're referring to.

They're referring to the west shift by the GFS Para I think.

[cheezyWXguy]

Whether this is a tropical storm or a minimal hurricane when it landfalls along the Gulf Coast is the only question. So it is fun to watch it RI Strengthen just as long as it doesn't hit Cuba........It's much easier to enjoy it just knowing how quickly it's going to get shredded once it gets into the Central Gulf.

Latest gfs brings it into LA at 962mb, and NHC brings it to the coast as a cat2. I think the possibilities are wider than you are suggesting.

[Stormcenter]

The NHC has this making landfall as a hurricane
so not sure if that what someone would refer to as a
a “shredded” storm.

[SoupBone]

Hmmmm, so you're putting SE Texas in the cone now?

Beaumont is in the "cone" but that is absolutely irrelevant. The cone does not define either track uncertainty in this case or Delta's wind field. All the cone identifies is typical track error over the past 5 seasons. It never changes all season long for each storm and for each advisory. Ignore the cone! With a SW-NE jet stream along the TX coast Thu/Fri, we should be "protected". Also, Delta will be a relatively small hurricane, with hurricane force winds extending only about 20-25 miles west of the track. Finally, new guidance indicates landfall may be delayed until late Friday evening. All models do indicate significant weakening after it makes the NNE turn on Friday.

No. You should know better than to tell people to go against officials, if you are in the cone do not ignore it, prepare.

That was exactly his point, to not focus on the cone because conditions can exist beyond it.

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy just climbed to 700 mb.
They are switching gears to hurricane mode.

[ConvergenceZone]

Whether this is a tropical storm or a minimal hurricane when it landfalls along the Gulf Coast is the only question. So it is fun to watch it RI Strengthen just as long as it doesn't hit Cuba........It's much easier to enjoy it just knowing how quickly it's going to get shredded once it gets into the Central Gulf.

Eh maybe... The stronger it gets though before entering the gulf (if it misses Cuba and the Yucatan), I would think the shear would not weaken it all the way down to a TS, it will significantly weaken for sure but maybe not that weak when it comes in. Hopefully it won't be anything more than a TS at landfall though.

You could be right. It could possibly be stronger than a tropical storm at landfall IF it gets stronger than forecast in the short-term.... They were mentioned significant weakening on the TV channel as well. So it looks to be just a rain-event, even if it is still a minimal hurricane at landfall.....

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy just climbed to 700 mb.
They are switching gears to hurricane mode.

I take that back, they are climbing higher.

[Fancy1001]

Not the GFS or parallel.

Don't know what you're referring to.

You said that all the models have it weakening from Friday onward as it heads North towards the gulf shore. The GFS and GFS parallel do not have it weakening.

[ConvergenceZone]

Whether this is a tropical storm or a minimal hurricane when it landfalls along the Gulf Coast is the only question. So it is fun to watch it RI Strengthen just as long as it doesn't hit Cuba........It's much easier to enjoy it just knowing how quickly it's going to get shredded once it gets into the Central Gulf.

Latest gfs brings it into LA at 962mb, and NHC brings it to the coast as a cat2. I think the possibilities are wider than you are suggesting.

We know that models have been HORRIBLE this year. So I'm just going by what the METS are saying and the shear, dry air and cooler water. It's one thing if you only have only one of those 3 working against it, but when you have all 3 working against it, significant weakening is extremely likely.

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy just climbed to 700 mb.
They are switching gears to hurricane mode.

I take that back, they are climbing higher.

Something's up.
They just did a weird loop.

[Fancy1001]

Not the GFS or parallel.

Don't know what you're referring to.

They're referring to the west shift by the GFS Para I think.

I was referring to him saying that all the models showed it weakening, and was pointing out that the GFS and GFS parallel did not show it weakening

[ConvergenceZone]

The NHC has this making landfall as a hurricane
so not sure if that what someone would refer to as a
a “shredded” storm.

I think the NHC is just being careful. Probably taking a better safe than sorry approach.....

[GCANE]

VDM calls out an open eye

F. Eye Character: Open in the west-northwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)