ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#421 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:27 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:
GCANE wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:
Does this also help Delta's outflow from a WISHE perspective? As you pointed out, PVS mixes in low theta-e air in the storm's environment; if that is gone, parcels conserving theta-e likely have a trajectory further out from the storm center.


Outflow is high up in the troposphere.
WISHE is heat exchange of the water to the air induced by high-speed winds.
This occurs at the ocean surface and the troposphere boundary layer.
The parcel trajectory comes from the cold pool over the CoC creating buoyancy.
The warm-core above the cold pool then slings the parcels away from the CoC as they move higher into the troposphere which creates the outflow.


Right but the trajectory is also dependent on it's theta-e in the WISHE model. The enthalpy exchange is isothermal, the ascent is pseudoadiabatic. Figured having low-entropy air mixed out would increase the buoyancy and this secondary circulation is enhanced which exacerbates stronger radial flow, increased enthalpy fluxes, etc, but could be thinking about it wrong.


I haven't heard about the relationship of theta-e with respect to WISHE.
Do you have a reference?
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#422 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:30 pm

Hot towers appear to be starting a periodic phase.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#423 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:35 pm

tailgater wrote:Sure wish we had that 1 minute floater over it before nightfall. I’d like to see the RI if it does happen. These 10min intervals seem so 2010. Spoiled
It’s starting to look more likely Delta could clip the NE tip of the Yucatán


Slider has it on Sector Mesoscale 1.
Rapidscan 1 min interval

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 000&y=1000
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#424 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:42 pm

So much for my vacation and comp days this week... Delta is tracking west of south now, but should be turning NW soon. Adjusted my landfall point west to eastern Vermilion Bay mid afternoon Friday. Could be a hurricane at landfall, but I do think it will be weakening due to a combination of wind shear, dry air, and cooler water after it makes the N-NNE turn early Friday.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#425 Postby p1nheadlarry » Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:45 pm

GCANE wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:
GCANE wrote:
Outflow is high up in the troposphere.
WISHE is heat exchange of the water to the air induced by high-speed winds.
This occurs at the ocean surface and the troposphere boundary layer.
The parcel trajectory comes from the cold pool over the CoC creating buoyancy.
The warm-core above the cold pool then slings the parcels away from the CoC as they move higher into the troposphere which creates the outflow.


Right but the trajectory is also dependent on it's theta-e in the WISHE model. The enthalpy exchange is isothermal, the ascent is pseudoadiabatic. Figured having low-entropy air mixed out would increase the buoyancy and this secondary circulation is enhanced which exacerbates stronger radial flow, increased enthalpy fluxes, etc, but could be thinking about it wrong.


I haven't heard about the relationship of theta-e with respect to WISHE.
Do you have a reference?


Sure. It's referenced in this article with Michael Montgomery as a coauthor https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/qj.1969
Here's a ppt also that goes into a few TC theories but WISHE is in there and outlines it with second law of thermo which is what I was [trying to] describe. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjB6s_6jJ7sAhUcoHIEHUEbBToQFjABegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usna.edu%2FUsesr%2Foceano%2Fbarrett%2FSO442%2FSO442_Lesson07_TCPotentialIntensity.pptx&usg=AOvVaw1SwqfPar2NGK_2zN-eprZm
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#426 Postby kevin » Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:48 pm

When even wxman calls for a possible hurricane at landfall, that's when you know you gotta pay attention :wink:.

Here's another loop of Delta just before recon gets there.

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#427 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:57 pm

Delta still does not have a well-organized inner core probably due to dry air intrusions from the northwest. You can see the arc clouds in the NW quadrant signifying dry air issues. The CDO it was building fell apart and now another burst of convection is giving it a go. Believe strengthening should be more tamed until this issue resolves.

Strengthening is still ahead of schedule.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#428 Postby SoupBone » Mon Oct 05, 2020 1:59 pm

wxman57 wrote:So much for my vacation and comp days this week... Delta is tracking west of south now, but should be turning NW soon. Adjusted my landfall point west to eastern Vermilion Bay mid afternoon Friday. Could be a hurricane at landfall, but I do think it will be weakening due to a combination of wind shear, dry air, and cooler water after it makes the N-NNE turn early Friday.


Hmmmm, so you're putting SE Texas in the cone now?
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#429 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:00 pm

Pooping out outflow boundaries, definitely struggling with some dry air.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#430 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:03 pm

Recon has descended to flight level.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#431 Postby Blinhart » Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:03 pm

I think anywhere from Beaumont to Mobile needs to keep an eye on this system for landfall, but all eyes of the Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye out for possible effects from this system.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#432 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:03 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Pooping out outflow boundaries, definitely struggling with some dry air.

caused by the PV streamer, once that abates this will take off
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#433 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:05 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:
GCANE wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:
Right but the trajectory is also dependent on it's theta-e in the WISHE model. The enthalpy exchange is isothermal, the ascent is pseudoadiabatic. Figured having low-entropy air mixed out would increase the buoyancy and this secondary circulation is enhanced which exacerbates stronger radial flow, increased enthalpy fluxes, etc, but could be thinking about it wrong.


I haven't heard about the relationship of theta-e with respect to WISHE.
Do you have a reference?


Sure. It's referenced in this article with Michael Montgomery as a coauthor https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/qj.1969
Here's a ppt also that goes into a few TC theories but WISHE is in there and outlines it with second law of thermo which is what I was [trying to] describe. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjB6s_6jJ7sAhUcoHIEHUEbBToQFjABegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.usna.edu%2FUsesr%2Foceano%2Fbarrett%2FSO442%2FSO442_Lesson07_TCPotentialIntensity.pptx&usg=AOvVaw1SwqfPar2NGK_2zN-eprZm


Great presentation, much thanks.
Yes, the classic Carnot cycle.
One thing I may want to add is the relationship of Vmax on Tout. Tout being approximately the temperature of the top of the troposphere. Not just dependent on the difference in sea-surface temperature but inversely proportional as well.
So as the upper troposphere seasonally cools off, much stronger TCs are possible. Accounts why such later season TCs are so powerful, case in point Wilma. Delta maybe another case.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#434 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:07 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Pooping out outflow boundaries, definitely struggling with some dry air.

caused by the PV streamer, once that abates this will take off

Isn’t it already almost gone? I believe GCANE posted an image a few hours ago showing it had split.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#435 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:09 pm

aspen wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Pooping out outflow boundaries, definitely struggling with some dry air.

caused by the PV streamer, once that abates this will take off

Isn’t it already almost gone? I believe GCANE posted an image a few hours ago showing it had split.


Last I saw from CIMSS is that its still there but decaying. Usually, these take many hours to clear out. This one was particularly strong this morning.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#436 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:10 pm

aspen wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Pooping out outflow boundaries, definitely struggling with some dry air.

caused by the PV streamer, once that abates this will take off

Isn’t it already almost gone? I believe GCANE posted an image a few hours ago showing it had split.


It should be wiped out soon, if not already. The more convection Delta fires, the more heat it releases to destroy the PV.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#437 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:So much for my vacation and comp days this week... Delta is tracking west of south now, but should be turning NW soon. Adjusted my landfall point west to eastern Vermilion Bay mid afternoon Friday. Could be a hurricane at landfall, but I do think it will be weakening due to a combination of wind shear, dry air, and cooler water after it makes the N-NNE turn early Friday.



Yea WXMAN, unlike previous storms this season, this doesn't have near as favorable conditions in the Gulf. You are a bit more bearish than me though, thinking it only MAY be a hurricane at landfall. I think it will be a hurricane, but more than likely a minimum to medium Cat 1, maybe 85 mph at best. I didn't even realize there was so much dry out and cooler water out there until you mentioned it. I was more focused on Shear, so yea, Good news for the Gulf States that's for sure! But bad news if some of this goes over Cuba, as a think it can hit 2 status by then, but we'll see....
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#438 Postby edu2703 » Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:13 pm

Probably the highest RI probabilities i've ever seen from SHIPS

Image
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#439 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:16 pm

edu2703 wrote:Probably the highest RI probabilities i've ever seen from SHIPS

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ejll0CDWkAAbMGB?format=png&name=medium

95%... Once that PV streamer is gone... Its gonna put on a show...
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#440 Postby SconnieCane » Mon Oct 05, 2020 2:17 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
edu2703 wrote:Probably the highest RI probabilities i've ever seen from SHIPS

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ejll0CDWkAAbMGB?format=png&name=medium

95%... Once that PV streamer is gone... Its gonna put on a show...


Surprised HWRF is comparatively bearish (by its standards, and compared to some of its earlier runs) based on those probabilities and the conditions ahead.
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