ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: TWENTY-SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#361 Postby Steve » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:30 am

Blinhart wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
NXStumpy_Robothing wrote: Hey, just catching back up on this thread/reply. You're right on pointing out how the first two points have been close to nullified thanks to Delta's organizational trends and Gamma's lack of well... much of anything, really. However, wouldn't Gamma still impart a mild amount of shear at the low to mid-levels? This probably would not have much of an impact on Delta (if it organizes a strong inner core like it appears to be doing so), but it might be worth seeing if it serves as a bit of an inhibitor on Delta's potential as it approaches Cuba.

In terms of Gamma pivoting Delta westward, such a scenario seems to be getting further and further unlikely. Although, it must then be wondered why this morning's runs have shifted westward regardless...


There may not be much of anything left of the system at 500mb in a few days, especially if it fails to regenerate any convection (think VHTs) near the center. I suspect its entire 3D vortical structure will continue to degrade. Watch for this trend in the 500MB height/vort/wind init panels, which serve as a decent proxy for analyses.


I think you might be in the wrong thread, this is for Delta not Gamma.


He's talking about the ability of Gamma to exert some influence over track of Delta.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#362 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:31 am

Looking better as time goes by.

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#363 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:34 am

Well we been saying WCarib is overdue... time soon to reset the counter I guess

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Re: ATL: TWENTY-SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#364 Postby Blinhart » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:36 am

Steve wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
There may not be much of anything left of the system at 500mb in a few days, especially if it fails to regenerate any convection (think VHTs) near the center. I suspect its entire 3D vortical structure will continue to degrade. Watch for this trend in the 500MB height/vort/wind init panels, which serve as a decent proxy for analyses.


I think you might be in the wrong thread, this is for Delta not Gamma.


He's talking about the ability of Gamma to exert some influence over track of Delta.


OK, I can understand that now.

I just know that I'm going to fill up my truck and start preparing because I have a very suspicious feeling I will be having more effects than I had with Laura.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#365 Postby La Breeze » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:40 am

Blinhart wrote:
Steve wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
I think you might be in the wrong thread, this is for Delta not Gamma.


He's talking about the ability of Gamma to exert some influence over track of Delta.


OK, I can understand that now.

I just know that I'm going to fill up my truck and start preparing because I have a very suspicious feeling I will be having more effects than I had with Laura.

Blinhart, do you really think that we'll have more effects than with Laura? I'm in Kaplan.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#366 Postby ClarCari » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:45 am

Will the dry air in front of it impact it?
Looking at the dry air loops it appears that the dry air is moving ahead of the storm so will that means Delta won’t catch up to it?
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#367 Postby Blinhart » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:49 am

La Breeze wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
Steve wrote:
He's talking about the ability of Gamma to exert some influence over track of Delta.


OK, I can understand that now.

I just know that I'm going to fill up my truck and start preparing because I have a very suspicious feeling I will be having more effects than I had with Laura.

Blinhart, do you really think that we'll have more effects than with Laura? I'm in Kaplan.


I'm not sure about for along the Coast, but further in, yeah I think Crowley could see more damage. The trees that were weakened by Laura could very much come down this time. I was without power for about 36 hours, hoping not as long this time, but could be longer. Just gut feelings, will see in a couple days with how strong Delta gets and where it goes.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#368 Postby Steve » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:57 am

Blinhart wrote:
La Breeze wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
OK, I can understand that now.

I just know that I'm going to fill up my truck and start preparing because I have a very suspicious feeling I will be having more effects than I had with Laura.

Blinhart, do you really think that we'll have more effects than with Laura? I'm in Kaplan.


I'm not sure about for along the Coast, but further in, yeah I think Crowley could see more damage. The trees that were weakened by Laura could very much come down this time. I was without power for about 36 hours, hoping not as long this time, but could be longer. Just gut feelings, will see in a couple days with how strong Delta gets and where it goes.


SWLA's impacts will be very dependent on storm structure as well. As you know, some recent systems affecting the Gulf Coast had situations where the west was almost devoid of weather. And we've seen that on the northern side as well (Isaac '12). So that's something to pay attention for. Obviously the farther east the system comes in, the better for y'all. I'm not sure a landfall near Fourchon or Cocodrie would have that many impacts over toward St. Landry and Acadia.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#369 Postby Blinhart » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:00 pm

Steve wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
La Breeze wrote:Blinhart, do you really think that we'll have more effects than with Laura? I'm in Kaplan.


I'm not sure about for along the Coast, but further in, yeah I think Crowley could see more damage. The trees that were weakened by Laura could very much come down this time. I was without power for about 36 hours, hoping not as long this time, but could be longer. Just gut feelings, will see in a couple days with how strong Delta gets and where it goes.


SWLA's impacts will be very dependent on storm structure as well. As you know, some recent systems affecting the Gulf Coast had situations where the west was almost devoid of weather. And we've seen that on the northern side as well (Isaac '12). So that's something to pay attention for. Obviously the farther east the system comes in, the better for y'all. I'm not sure a landfall near Fourchon or Cocodrie would have that many impacts over toward St. Landry and Acadia.


Agreed. I think it all depends on when and where it turns from moving NW to NE that will have the ultimate decision on where the landfall and most damage will be.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#370 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:08 pm

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Re: ATL: TWENTY-SIX - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#371 Postby Steve » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:09 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Steve wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
I'm not sure about for along the Coast, but further in, yeah I think Crowley could see more damage. The trees that were weakened by Laura could very much come down this time. I was without power for about 36 hours, hoping not as long this time, but could be longer. Just gut feelings, will see in a couple days with how strong Delta gets and where it goes.


SWLA's impacts will be very dependent on storm structure as well. As you know, some recent systems affecting the Gulf Coast had situations where the west was almost devoid of weather. And we've seen that on the northern side as well (Isaac '12). So that's something to pay attention for. Obviously the farther east the system comes in, the better for y'all. I'm not sure a landfall near Fourchon or Cocodrie would have that many impacts over toward St. Landry and Acadia.


Agreed. I think it all depends on when and where it turns from moving NW to NE that will have the ultimate decision on where the landfall and most damage will be.


Yeah, I definitely agree with that. Also, how much dry air is up around the coast will matter. I know that coastal air will moisten up a bit between now and landfall and don't expect a June like dry-line running N/S just west of the system. It doesn't look to become a really large overall system though it for sure could be moderate sized.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#372 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:11 pm

About to have an eye start to show itsself more and more.. convection building in the SE eyewall.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#373 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:11 pm

The IR hole from the PVS is just about gone.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#374 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:13 pm

Todd Kimberlain, for the uninitiated, is a former NHC hurricane specialist. Rather ominously bold wording.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#375 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:13 pm

GCANE wrote:The IR hole from the PVS is just about gone.

I don't know a whole lot about PVS... But does this mean that once it's gone, Delta will have a more favorable environment to RI?
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#376 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:13 pm

aspen wrote:When is recon expected to take off?


NOAA plane just acended from base.

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#377 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:13 pm

First recon flight is heading out to Delta.

Edit: posted at the exact same time as cycloneye’s response
Last edited by aspen on Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone 26 - Discussion

#378 Postby MarioProtVI » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:13 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:
Keldeo1997 wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/762466191579021312/image0.png

Camille could actually be a good track analog for this

Definitely not intensity-wise though unless for a minuscule chance (<0.00001%) Delta decides to completely 2020 itself and bomb to a Cat 5 which is not going to happen most likely it seems

Might have to revise this prediction of mine given today’s trends...maybe like 10% now if it really bombs like some models think..
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#379 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:14 pm

PVS is decoupling from the UL Trof

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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#380 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 05, 2020 12:15 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
GCANE wrote:The IR hole from the PVS is just about gone.

I don't know a whole lot about PVS... But does this mean that once it's gone, Delta will have a more favorable environment to RI?


Absolutely
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