ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Looking at Gamma & 26L’s 120-144 position for the TVCN on the early 00z guidance, they both arrive at the LA coast about the same time... Thinking that’s unlikely so something will give...

[Ubuntwo]

Looking at Gamma & 26L’s 120-144 position for the TVCN on the early 00z guidance, they both arrive at the LA coast about the same time... Thinking that’s unlikely so something will give...

It looks like the Gamma TVCN is picking up on 26's low as it weakens since they are so close.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1312944106583199750

[Blown Away]

Looking at Gamma & 26L’s 120-144 position for the TVCN on the early 00z guidance, they both arrive at the LA coast about the same time... Thinking that’s unlikely so something will give...

It looks like the Gamma TVCN is picking up on 26's low as it weakens since they are so close.

The 00z early intensity guidance keeps Gamma a moderate TS through that period, so at least it’s not showing remnant low.

[edu2703]

NHC increased the peak forecast to 90 kts

[Steve]

26 TD’s is insane. I guess this will make 25th named storm (21 + 4).

[SconnieCane]

Here we go boys...a bit ahead of schedule I think.

[us89]

Here we go boys...a bit ahead of schedule I think.

Not a good thing...the sooner this develops an organized inner core, the more time it has to explode into something big.

[ElectricStorm]

NHC has it strengthening to 105mph in the gulf now, not weakening. If 26 gets intense before entering the gulf there may not be a whole lot putting the intensity in check until it reaches the cooler coastal waters. But I wouldn't think that would do a whole lot to it considering it's not going to be anything like Sally stalling on the coast. Seems like every update on this system has me even more concerned...

[St0rmTh0r]

The dreaded classic la nina October pattern for a powerful cyclone in the Western Carribean. The theme this year has been storms coming in twos. A weak storm followed by a powerful one. That's an interesting thing to research. Why do storms come in twos?

[shah83]

The thing I'd be worried about most is a slowdown or stall around the yucatan channel, because that would allow a stronger storm hitting Florida and maybe a nor'easter hybrid storm up the east coast.

[edu2703]

Saved loop

[Fancy1001]

The thing I'd be worried about most is a slowdown or stall around the yucatan channel, because that would allow a stronger storm hitting Florida and maybe a nor'easter hybrid storm up the east coast.

I'm getting worried about a Wilma type set up.

[EquusStorm]

Boy this thing looks ominous tonight. No guarantee that structure holds at all, but if it doesn't hiccup until it hits the Gulf someone is in for a rough time.

[chaser1]

Looks like the only certainty with 92L....is uncertainty for the time being...to me it seems that whatever evolves from this system, would occur in the Eastern Gulf?....are there not cold fronts pushing any systems in that general direction?...

Naw, not really. Seems like there's a shortwave impulse dipping south of the Great Lakes around the 50-60 hr.s time range but the flow is very progressive and this doesn't really do much to break down the mid level ridging over Florida and Eastern GOM. 'Course if this were the same set up in the middle of the MDR, i'd bet we'd see 92L shoot northward into the decaying ridge faster then 100 chain-saw's pushing through a beaver dam LOL. Now, interestingly the GFS long range (around Oct. 14-18) does depict a strong and very deep short wave trough that extends south to the NW GOM and appears to progress east over time. This looks like that set up that would need to keep Cuba and Florida on it's toes for any potential W. Caribbean systems that would likely track primarily northward in response to deep layer steering. Long way off though and it'll remain to be seen if this trough and related cold front will verify (let along whether any developing TC is in place to our south.

I could not ask for a better informational response than than that chaser.....thank you for that...

You're most certainly welcome

[ElectricStorm]

Saved loop

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/goes16_ir_26L_202010050045.gif

Already some <-80 C cloud tops in there... if those wrap around the center and an eye clears out...

[Ptarmigan]

The thing I'd be worried about most is a slowdown or stall around the yucatan channel, because that would allow a stronger storm hitting Florida and maybe a nor'easter hybrid storm up the east coast.

I'm getting worried about a Wilma type set up.

I would not be surprised.

[AutoPenalti]

The thing I'd be worried about most is a slowdown or stall around the yucatan channel, because that would allow a stronger storm hitting Florida and maybe a nor'easter hybrid storm up the east coast.

I'm getting worried about a Wilma type set up.

A Wilma setup would require a stronger trough and we aren’t seeing that at the moment.

[tiger_deF]

Some of the shelf waters are already at 24 degrees, wouldn't this cause Delta to rapidly weaken as it approached landfall?

[ElectricStorm]

Some of the shelf waters are already at 24 degrees, wouldn't this cause Delta to rapidly weaken as it approached landfall?

Hopefully. I think it's supposed to move pretty quickly as it comes in so it may not hurt it too much.