ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

HWRF is no joke.

[Ryxn]

Hurricane Delta.........striking a delta (the mouth of Mississippi)...the name seems fitting.

Also if it somehow reaches Category 5 strength, it would mark the 5th consecutive year the Atlantic Hurricane Season contained at least one Category 5 storm. Would have been 6th had Joaquin strengthened 5 mph more from its 155 mph peak in October 2015.

2016: Matthew
2017: Irma, Maria (almost Jose)
2018: Michael (almost Florence)
2019: Dorian, Lorenzo
2020: Delta? (Likely not) (Almost Laura)

[St0rmTh0r]

HWRF is no joke.

https://i.imgur.com/vSA8TJA.png

Is that a cat 5?

[edu2703]

HWRF is no joke.

https://i.imgur.com/vSA8TJA.png

Jesus! That pinhole eye would allow explosive intensification if it verifies.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF is no joke.

https://i.imgur.com/vSA8TJA.png

That's extremely concerning because
1) Gamma was able to go from a TD to nearly a Cat 1 in less than 24 hours, and Delta will have much more time in similar conditions than Gamma did
2) The HWRF has nailed the structure of most of the storms this season so the fact that it shows a pinhole has me very concerned.

[CrazyC83]

It's literally bath water for the next 48-72 hours. I see no reason why that can't happen.

[aspen]

HWRF is no joke.

https://i.imgur.com/vSA8TJA.png

That southern shift is also as worrying. If Delta goes any further south, it won’t make landfall in Cuba at all, and it will enter the Gulf stronger.

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1312924783324073985

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Nothing simpler than tropical soup. But bowls of clouds are alot better. Part of this complete breakfast. So wash your hands and have 2 weeks worth of vacation

[caneman]

CrazyC83,
Is that person implying that if Delta strengthens more quickly that it would get pulled more North and East?

[DestinHurricane]

I know there's been some confusion in this thread with posts contradicting the NHC and whatnot. As Storm2k is visited by random guests that may or may not be knowledgeable about the tropics, I think it is important to understand what is actually being forecast here.
Here's the cone for PTC 26 (will be named delta)


NHC is currently forecasting category 2 intensity in the gulf:
INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 05/0600Z 17.1N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 05/1800Z 18.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH TS
36H 06/0600Z 19.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH TS
48H 06/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W 60 KT 70 MPH TS
60H 07/0600Z 23.1N 85.4W 70 KT 80 MPH Cat 1
72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 87.9W 80 KT 90 MPH Cat 1
96H 08/1800Z 26.5N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH Cat 2
120H 09/1800Z 28.6N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH Cat 2

Please know that the "professional meteorologist" label on this site does NOT make it an official forecast. Disagreements on the forum are allowed and welcomed but just know that they are not official forecasts, even from a pro-met.
The best hurricane experts in the world are expecting a cat 2, go with that. They have their scientific reasoning lined up for making this forecast. Consider them before you believe a post on the internet that is not backed up with sound scientific data.

We've seen the same disagreements time and time again with posters vs the NHC. The NHC wins 9 times out of 10.

[EquusStorm]

My mom lives just inland the Alabama coast and went through Sally's eyewall. She is understandably highly nervous about future storms; have given her the link to s2k in the past multiple times so she can keep up with discussions when local news and apps aren't discussing upcoming threats as much. I certainly don't want her or those she talks with at work to have their decisions to stay/prepare affected by anything but the official NHC forecast and I would hate for them to have to deal with another cat 2+ hurricane after preparing for just a high end TS/low end cat 1. Lots of amazing contributors and contributions, but for the general public reading, it's hard to tell the reasoning behind forecasts if they differ from the NHC without explicit reasoning as to why, so yeah I'm definitely for sticking close to the NHC or offering very detailed reasons why it differs from that. Could certainly be far more correct than the NHC, but it's a heavy burden being responsible for evacuations or lack of evacuations by the general public reading and I wouldn't want blame that to fall on anyone's shoulders should decisions be changed by specific sources. Bottom line, hurricane intensity forecasting is very difficult lol

[EquusStorm]

On topic for PTC 26 though, this has the makings of a very compact storm in the short term which makes me a bit concerned about RI for the time it has in the Caribbean. Gulf, definitely less perfect environment, but gotta get past the Yucatan Channel first.

[LarryWx]

As I mentioned earlier, longterm climo says that a track as far west as to LA is quite believable even though I think areas to the east to at least to the FL Panhandle are very much at risk. This map of Oct 1-10 geneses tells me this:



However, had the upcoming genesis been a week or so later (say, during Oct 11-20), I would have been much more skeptical of a track to LA based on Oct 11-20 genesis climo:

[Aric Dunn]

CrazyC83,
Is that person implying that if Delta strengthens more quickly that it would get pulled more North and East?

That is what they are implying and what

several of us on here have mentioned. but it also requires Gamma to weaken and move farther SW.

[aspen]

Absolutely bonkers OHC for the next 2-3 days.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1312931182825349122

[EquusStorm]

Wow. Right up the SST spine. That's certainly not ideal especially for the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

[tolakram]

This evenings tropical tidbits.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/mAFaXkKWk6o[/youtube]

[Ryxn]

There has been a crazy long streak of Atlantic Hurricane Seasons featuring at least one Super-Typhoon-equivalent 150mph+ storm. It goes back to 2015. The previous record was already broken by Florence in 2018 when he strengthened to 150 mph. This year has extended the record streak to a crazy 6 consecutive years which is double the previous record of 3 set during 1928-1930 and 2003-2005. The 2000s decade has the record for number of 150mph+ storms with 11. The 2010s came close but was 1 short with 10 storms. The 2003-2005 streak had EIGHT 150mph+ storms but the current streak surpassed it with Lorenzo and is currently at 10 storms with the inclusion of Laura. 2017 had the ONLY occurrence of simultaneous 150mph+ storms with Irma and Jose in September 2017. The current streak would be 7 had Gonzalo of 2014 strengthened 5 mph more from its 145 mph peak.

Streaks of at least 3 seasons below

1928: "Okeechobee" (C5)
1929: "Bahamas" (C4)
1930: "Dominican Republic" (C4)

2003: Isabel (C5)
2004: Charley (C4), Ivan (C5)
2005: Dennis (C4), Emily (C5), Katrina (C5), Rita (C5), Wilma (C5)

Current streak
2015: Joaquin (C4)
2016: Matthew (C5)
2017: Irma (C5), Jose (C4), Maria (C5)
2018: Florence (C4), Michael (C5)
2019: Dorian (C5), Lorenzo (C5)
2020: Laura (C4), Delta? (C4/5?)
Season ongoing

2020 is also the FIFTH consecutive above-average Atlantic Hurricane Season (2016-2020) and SIXTH consecutive season with at least one pre-season storm (2015-2020). Just further evidence that the active era is not ready to end yet! (Well the pre-season storms have more to do with climate change than how busy the season will end up being but still an impressive feat) Thanks for the read