Tropical Wave in the East-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 92L)

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like vorticity may be on the increase with this wave. Not saying it happens quickly but definitely getting the feeling we will be getting Delta from this.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... t=vis-swir

[aspen]

HWRF-P starts to develop this as early as Sunday.

[northjaxpro]

This vort I believe poses the greatest threat to Florida as we get into the week beginning Oct 4 (next week)

It already has a very vigorous mid-level signature. This system has my attèntion!

This post above was from Sept 30.

I always felt that this wave would be the one to pose the greatest potential threat to the Florida peninsula.

Looks like my thoughts from that post above just may come to fruition. Vorticity is on the increase this morning for this wave and the models are definitely signaling development in the medium term. Time for another invest designation, which should come fairly soon.

[SFLcane]

This vort I believe poses the greatest threat to Florida as we get into the week beginning Oct 4 (next week)

It already has a very vigorous mid-level signature. This system has my attèntion!

This post above was from Sept 30.

I always felt that this wave would be the one to pose the greatest potential threat to the Florida peninsula.

Looks like my thoughts from that post above just may come to fruition. Vorticity is on the increase this morning for this wave and the models are definity signaling development in the medium term. Time for another invest designation, which should come fairly soon.

Let’s tag this...

[caneseddy]

12z Icon sends this into Northern Gulf Coast as a sheared system; starts developing Monday

[LarryWx]

This vort I believe poses the greatest threat to Florida as we get into the week beginning Oct 4 (next week)

It already has a very vigorous mid-level signature. This system has my attèntion!

This post above was from Sept 30.

I always felt that this wave would be the one to pose the greatest potential threat to the Florida peninsula.

Looks like my thoughts from that post above just may come to fruition. Vorticity is on the increase this morning for this wave and the models are definity signaling development in the medium term. Time for another invest designation, which should come fairly soon.

6Z GEFS from this wave for sub 1,000 mb CONUS landfalls has out of 31 members:
1 hitting far SW FL, one Sarasota, 2 hitting FL Big Bend, 1 hitting FL Panhandle, and 2 hitting LA.

*Edited

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1312059537847996417

[SFLcane]

12z GFS develops this potentially by late this weekend.

[northjaxpro]

12Z ICON moves this entity from the NW Caribbean and traverses potential Delta in 165 hours as a 998 mb strong TS in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico

[Hurricaneman]

If one chooses the path between the Euro and GFS it would be the HWRF and thats what I'm going for in terms of the path, intensity is another thing as a system goes as if it takes the Euro path it could be a big Florida panhandle issue, if it takes the HWRF path it could be a Florida Peninsula hit and might have the biggest potential with that path and the GFS path which would be almost a nothing burger so I feel this is definitely one to watch for the eastern GOM

[northjaxpro]

If one chooses the path between the Euro and GFS it would be the HWRF and thats what I'm going for in terms of the path, intensity is another thing as a system goes as if it takes the Euro path it could be a big Florida panhandle issue, if it takes the HWRF path it could be a Florida Peninsula hit and might have the biggest potential with that path and the GFS path which would be almost a nothing burger so I feel this is definitely one to watch for the eastern GOM

Pretty much agree with you on this assessment. This system has always bought me a bad vibe for the past several days.

[SFLcane]

[edu2703]

12z GFS shows a brief development near Jamaica, moving across Cuba and south Florida.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS shows a brief development near Jamaica, moving across Cuba and south Florida.

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh6-126.gif

06z Nogaps was similar..

[northjaxpro]

12Z CMC moves potential Delta in 192 hours northeast from the Central Gulf, and shows it approaching Panama City as a 992 mb Cat 1.
.

[cycloneye]

Time to tag it.

A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and
thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea, with locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds affecting portions of the ABC
Islands, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form next
week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about
15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[SFLcane]

Wow! 10-40%

[tomatkins]

12z GFS shows a brief development near Jamaica, moving across Cuba and south Florida.

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh6-126.gif

06z Nogaps was similar..

https://i.imgur.com/DwtdCWK.gif

Looks like we might get that two storms in the Gulf afterall.

[caneseddy]

12z NAVGEM send this to Big Bend area one week from today; development begins Sunday near Jamaica

[cycloneye]

Wow! 10-40%

Agreed. Is time to tag it.