Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[GCANE]

It appears the first system will reinforce the Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break in the GoM.
As RW and TC pull away from the area, a long-term synoptic anticyclone will be left in the GoM.
Opens the door for the second TC to ramp up.
No shear, no dry air, saturated air from head to toe, cooling off of the upper troposphere.
All the ingredients I was worried about coming together to possibly form a monster.

[robbielyn]

GFs buries 1st one into mexico after crossing yucatan, 2nd now hits oct 12th just east of panama city again at 967mb.

[SconnieCane]

GFs buries 1st one into mexico after crossing yucatan, 2nd now hits oct 12th just east of panama city again at 967mb.

Of all the monster hurricane scenarios, can we *not* do a Michael redux, please?

Peninsula force field in effect...

[SouthFLTropics]

GFs buries 1st one into mexico after crossing yucatan, 2nd now hits oct 12th just east of panama city again at 967mb.

Of all the monster hurricane scenarios, can we *not* do a Michael redux, please?

Peninsula force field in effect...

Overnight we had the Wilma sequel at 00z and then the Michael sequel at 06z. Long way to go with these solutions. Not too long ago the models had the first system impacting Florida and now they are burying it into the YP. Many variables to play out. But the general consensus is that the Western Caribbean is coming to life and is putting out warning signs.

[robbielyn]

GFs buries 1st one into mexico after crossing yucatan, 2nd now hits oct 12th just east of panama city again at 967mb.

Of all the monster hurricane scenarios, can we *not* do a Michael redux, please?

Peninsula force field in effect...

While this is far from set in stone, unfortunately this happens more often than not vs hitting the peninsula. Lets hope this is totally wrong.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is
expected to move westward over the next couple of days and
interact with a frontal system, producing a broad area of low
pressure over the western Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Gums]

Salute!

Don't like it all.

Thinking of Michael Redux or Opal. Same time of the season, to boot.

Gums watches, waits.....

[toad strangler]

GFs buries 1st one into mexico after crossing yucatan, 2nd now hits oct 12th just east of panama city again at 967mb.

Of all the monster hurricane scenarios, can we *not* do a Michael redux, please?

Peninsula force field in effect...

Overnight we had the Wilma sequel at 00z and then the Michael sequel at 06z. Long way to go with these solutions. Not too long ago the models had the first system impacting Florida and now they are burying it into the YP. Many variables to play out. But the general consensus is that the Western Caribbean is coming to life and is putting out warning signs.

Yep, strong signals and it will be ALL about 500mb at that range if a vigorous TC meanders into the region. That's something that IS tough to pin down under 5 days let alone 10 plus.

[SFLcane]

Salute!

Don't like it all.

Thinking of Michael Redux or Opal. Same time of the season, to boot.

Gums watches, waits.....

Maybe a bit of confusion here but The models are not bullish with this wave it’s the second wave east of the islands which there is a thread for it.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121432

[Evil Jeremy]

The Florida Peninsula has already had several lucky breaks already this year.

A Southern Caribbean system in October as seasonal troughs start digging South.... We all know the potential of that set up.

[toad strangler]

The Florida Peninsula has already had several lucky breaks already this year.

A Southern Caribbean system in October as seasonal troughs start digging South.... We all know the potential of that set up.

And troughs many times mysteriously show up in the near to mid range unexpected by the models.

[Aric Dunn]

Now we are getting somewhere.. models should begin to narrow down genesis/track with the convection and vorticity increasing.

[chaser1]

Now we are getting somewhere.. models should begin to narrow down genesis/track with the convection and vorticity increasing.

Exactly! And as expected, EURO will probably soon show up to the party as well later today/tonight bring party-favors for all. Then with the beat of the music becoming far more audible, the cyclone dance will truly begin.

[AutoPenalti]

Now we are getting somewhere.. models should begin to narrow down genesis/track with the convection and vorticity increasing.

But isn't all this convection shear-induced? Seems like that was the story for the past 3 days.

[Weatherboy1]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/DyTkr76W/D9048943-51-A7-437-D-BF08-C00134-F1239-A.jpg

Howdy “Wilma”!

[Hurricaneman]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/DyTkr76W/D9048943-51-A7-437-D-BF08-C00134-F1239-A.jpg

Howdy “Wilma”!

That’s not this wave, that’s the wave East of the Lesser Antilles

[chaser1]

Now we are getting somewhere.. models should begin to narrow down genesis/track with the convection and vorticity increasing.

But isn't all this convection shear-induced? Seems like that was the story for the past 3 days.

Good question and actually that's broadly correct. We see this in the Atlantic especially in the sub-tropics. Often times it is the upper shear itself that kind of "fan's the fire". A continuation of bursting convection aids vertical lift and further warms and moistens the upper air as well. As for the Caribbean disturbance, it seems that a strengthening upper Anticyclone is building over the far southwest Caribbean and is better aiding the convection much further south. As of this morning it seems that this would be an area more likely to induce cyclogenesis and possibly why there's still a lack of model consensus (well, primarily from the EURO).

[Dean4Storms]

Just don't need this again in this country right now. Here's hoping a shear monster raises its head!

[SFLcane]

[robbielyn]

GFS has the second wave doing a serious curve ball up and around to LA then going east and landing in appalachicola.