Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[cheezyWXguy]

12z CMC with an intensifying cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean Sea moving into the GOM.

https://i.imgur.com/xydDjEf.gif

First sub-1000mb run I’ve seen of the cmc in a while

[StPeteMike]

I’ll go and bet $20 models will swing back to a stronger system in the NW Caribbean for the remainder of the time.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO has no change to the % in 5 days:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cp79]

The trend seems to be two systems forming in the Caribbean with the first one being weaker and the second one being a possible concern, esp for the Fla west coast or panhandle. I do think Florida’s west coast needs to be on alert here bc the winds are setting up for a storm to push their way in the next two weeks should one form.

I’ll never forget living in Tampa and the meterologist saying that when Tampa gets the big one, it’s most likely to be an early-to-mid October system. Well, guess what time of year we’re getting into.

[chaser1]

I’ll go and bet $20 models will swing back to a stronger system in the NW Caribbean for the remainder of the time.

I tend to agree with your thinking for now but with a caveat that beginning this Friday, the windshield wipers all shift back toward weaker and little more than a minimal to moderate T.S. (or maybe little more then a wave of low pressure) sliding northeast over S. Fla.)

[gatorcane]

12 Euro animation. Consensus of the two big models is buried into the Yucatan / Central America:

[StPeteMike]

I’ll go and bet $20 models will swing back to a stronger system in the NW Caribbean for the remainder of the time.

I tend to agree with your thinking for now but with a caveat that beginning this Friday, the windshield wipers all shift back toward weaker and little more than a minimal to moderate T.S. (or maybe little more then a wave of low pressure) sliding northeast over S. Fla.)

Totally understandable and that’s $20 I’ll lose.... I guess dropping it on the ground.... if I am wrong.

[Loveweather12]

Doesn’t mean to that’s going to happen considering we don’t have a storm to track yet. Common sense

12 Euro animation. Consensus of the two big models is buried into the Yucatan / Central America:

https://i.postimg.cc/yxY0114C/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-168.gif

[AutoPenalti]

12 Euro animation. Consensus of the two big models is buried into the Yucatan / Central America:

https://i.postimg.cc/yxY0114C/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-168.gif

No consensus here, lol ... just have to keep watching.

[aspen]

If I’m not mistaken, the northern portion of the wave have been flaring with convection again over the last few hours.

[northjaxpro]

12 Euro animation. Consensus of the two big models is buried into the Yucatan / Central America:

https://i.postimg.cc/yxY0114C/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-168.gif

No consensus here, lol ... just have to keep watching.

Correct. The waiting game continues.....

[aspen]

Looks like this is why most of the models are so insistent on the southern scenario; much of the 850mb vorticity is over South America, not in the more convectively active northern side of the wave axis.

[chaser1]

I’ll go and bet $20 models will swing back to a stronger system in the NW Caribbean for the remainder of the time.

I tend to agree with your thinking for now but with a caveat that beginning this Friday, the windshield wipers all shift back toward weaker and little more than a minimal to moderate T.S. (or maybe little more then a wave of low pressure) sliding northeast over S. Fla.)

Totally understandable and that’s $20 I’ll lose.... I guess dropping it on the ground.... if I am wrong.

That or, $40 that we BOTH lose if all the models suddenly drop this like a hot potato Stranger things have happened.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS-P... This run our hurricane turns SW in the GOM and goes into the BOC... Another strong TS moves up from the Central Caribbean on a Matthew type track...

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/WiZKPJO.gif
12z GFS-P... This run our hurricane turns SW in the GOM and goes into the BOC... Another strong TS moves up from the Central Caribbean on a Matthew type track...

LMFAO, that run is the funniest thing I've seen all day - Florida force-field is in full effect.

[boca]

Our luck continues and going against climatology I’ll stay here and watch all the storms miss the peninsula in the safe zone.The panhandle is not under the deflector shield.

[Emmett_Brown]

Consensus is in the eye of the beholder. At 120 hours, the GFS, GFS Para, Euro, CMC, NAV, Icon... all have a close low of varying degrees of intensity in the vicinity of the Yucatan or the Yucatan channel. Also support from ensembles. After 120 hours things diverge. This is a pretty strong signal considering that we don't have anything close to a defined system yet.

[AnnularCane]

https://i.imgur.com/WiZKPJO.gif
12z GFS-P... This run our hurricane turns SW in the GOM and goes into the BOC... Another strong TS moves up from the Central Caribbean on a Matthew type track...

"Oops, I better go this way instead. Florida is too scary!"

[Laminar]

Consensus is in the eye of the beholder. At 120 hours, the GFS, GFS Para, Euro, CMC, NAV, Icon... all have a close low of varying degrees of intensity in the vicinity of the Yucatan or the Yucatan channel. Also support from ensembles. After 120 hours things diverge. This is a pretty strong signal considering that we don't have anything close to a defined system yet.

Agree - and its been like that for the last few days. Something is making the models believe!

[Loveweather12]

So you’re saying not to watch this storm anymore?

Our luck continues and going against climatology I’ll stay here and watch all the storms miss the peninsula in the safe zone.The panhandle is not under the deflector shield.