Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#241 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:07 pm

SFLcane wrote:Evening view of tropical wave moving through the eastern Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/ivOm7Ex.gif

Looks very anemic, but not moving much either.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6367
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#242 Postby boca » Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:12 pm

Looks like the tropical wave is moving north not west.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#243 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:18 pm

boca wrote:Looks like the tropical wave is moving north not west.


Illusion. The wave axis stretches form the N most part of that convection all the way and WELL S into SA. Northern part of the axis is more active by as Aric said it's looking weak right now. More so than all day.
Last edited by toad strangler on Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#244 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:18 pm

boca wrote:Looks like the tropical wave is moving north not west.

Dying convection makes it seem that way.
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#245 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:32 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
boca wrote:Looks like the tropical wave is moving north not west.

Dying convection makes it seem that way.

Yep, mostly shear driven convection heading north on an outflow boundary. Seeing some mid level rotation at about 15N 67W, although it looks like there’s a little bit of turning at 10N 67W as well, right on the coast. Wonder which part will win.
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ubuntwo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1406
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#246 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:34 am

0z model roundup thus far:
GFS stalls and does a little dance around the Yucatan, before shooting off west. Peaks as a mid grade TS.
Canadian has a short-lived TD from this wave, mostly favoring the wave behind it which becomes a big TS in the Gulf moving north.
ICON has a very slow moving system in the West Caribbean, not getting particularly intense.
UKMET shows no development within 144h.

Most models have some kind of interaction between this wave and the one behind it, which may also develop.
0 likes   
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC

Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Top
LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#247 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:46 am

0Z UKMET 144: strung out/weak:

Image
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#248 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:39 am

Looks like the discussion poofed alongside the shear-driven convection.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#249 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:59 am

Para still going at it... :roll:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#250 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:04 am



Much further west then it has been.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#251 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:25 am


It takes a full day longer to reach the longitude of the Yucatán Peninsula in the GFS-Para run, which is why it bombs out. The GFS has landfall in 96-102 hours and is just able to squeeze out a strong TS. Speaking of the GFS, it still gets this stuck on the Yucatán Peninsula, and does the same for the disturbance behind it.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1921
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#252 Postby otowntiger » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:58 am


Well at least it’s consistent albeit a lone wolf at this time. That solution is possible, but less than likely due to what all the other ‘reliable’ models are presenting at this time and the fact that climatologically/historically most systems in that locale with the pending synoptic pattern would be a sheared weak t.s. At best. But obviously we’ve been fooled before, especially this season. So we must watch....
0 likes   
Top
Loveweather12
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:37 pm

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#253 Postby Loveweather12 » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:00 am

Yes those other reliable models have had problems this season too! I’m not going to discount the Gfs para. Just best to watch & not discount it cause it’s the para. The NHC knows the deal & we should trust them


otowntiger wrote:

Well at least it’s consistent albeit a lone wolf at this time. That solution is possible, but less than likely due to what all the other ‘reliable’ models are presenting at this time and the fact that climatologically/historically most systems in that locale with the pending synoptic pattern would be a sheared weak t.s. At best. But obviously we’ve been fooled before, especially this season. So we must watch....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#254 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:01 am

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1310909229386039298


2 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#255 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:01 am

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1310901454828384257


2 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#256 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:07 am

GEFS still active this morning.

That’s under 5 days now

Image


Image
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#257 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:24 am

Development as early as Friday per GEFS.

Image

Image
2 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#258 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:27 am

SFLcane wrote:GEFS still active this morning.

That’s under 5 days now

https://i.imgur.com/x0kZliH.png


https://i.imgur.com/9qMPBz1.png


...and further West.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#259 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:33 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
SFLcane wrote:GEFS still active this morning.

That’s under 5 days now

https://i.imgur.com/x0kZliH.png


https://i.imgur.com/9qMPBz1.png


...and further West.


Lots of variables on were an actual vortex forms if any.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean

#260 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:37 am

06z Para..

Image
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: BobHarlem, KeysRedWine, StormWeather, Stratton23, TomballEd and 44 guests