Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[AutoPenalti]

This is 12z at 6hr (18z) vs IR at 17z (CT)




There's a difference for sure. It's ahead of schedule.

[gatorcane]

Here comes the strong cold front, lows in the low 60s down into West-Central Florida. Should help cool some of those shelf waters.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40% in five days.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

[SFLcane]

But I thought there was suppose to be shear in the Caribbean?

[ElectricStorm]

Up to 40% in five days.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while
the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

Low expected to form in a few days... Isn't it already there south of PR?

[psyclone]

Here comes the strong cold front, lows in the low 60s down into West-Central Florida. Should help cool some of those shelf waters.

It's not just the cool air...more than that it is the dry air. it is tough to moderate such a dry polar airmass once it barges onto the scene. It has me bearish on the maintenance of a storm of consequence once it leaves the northwest caribbean. Obviously stuff can still happen...but this is a huge of amount of sand in the gears of tropical machinery and definitely worthy of discussion as this reels in. My gut instincts are bearish at this point and they have been all along. then again...my track record is a tad iffy..

[xironman]

Tampa looks very close to climo, DPT is low Wed through Sat, but back to 70 by Sunday.

KTPA GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 9/28/2020 1200 UTC
FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192
TUE 29| WED 30| THU 01| FRI 02| SAT 03| SUN 04| MON 05|TUE CLIMO
N/X 76 86| 67 83| 66 84| 67 84| 67 83| 70 82| 73 88| 74 70 86
TMP 77 77| 68 76| 68 78| 69 76| 68 77| 70 76| 74 80| 74
DPT 74 71| 62 57| 59 59| 60 60| 61 64| 66 70| 72 71| 71
CLD OV OV| OV CL| CL CL| PC CL| PC OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV
WND 4 14| 12 10| 6 8| 6 9| 8 10| 8 7| 7 7| 7
P12 37 78| 39 9| 4 6| 13 9| 10 21| 34 58| 31 36| 25 13 21
P24 83| 39| 6| 13| 26| 62| 45| 27
Q12 1 4| 2 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 5| |
Q24 4| 0| 0| 0| 0| 5| |
T12 18 56| 23 0| 0 0| 1 4| 2 11| 8 27| 11 23| 8
T24 | 56 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 29 | 27
PZP 0 0| 1 0| 0 0| 2 1| 1 1| 1 1| 2 0| 1
PSN 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 1| 0
PRS 0 0| 0 0| 1 1| 0 0| 0 1| 0 0| 1 1| 0
TYP R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R R| R

Eastern gulf does not appear to have a dry air problem.

[cycloneye]

Good to see the the squadron folks are are already watching it and waiting for the call to go to work.

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1310642944009998336

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1310644361613520897

[WeatherEmperor]

Euro showing stronger system




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[toad strangler]

12z Euro doing the SW shuffle too

[SFLcane]

Lol euro... Vorticity goes west moisture goes north.

[SFLcane]

GFS-P is alone and likely wrong here apparently. We shall see.

[AutoPenalti]

This may have been said already, but why is the 12z GFS-P all over the place on TT?

[WeatherHoon]

GFS-P is alone and likely wrong here apparently. We shall see.

Majority of ensembles are still far east.

[Loveweather12]

It could be right. You don’t know & I don’t know. I know the experts are giving this 40%. I’m just watching this & not being Naive & telling everyone a storm isn’t going to form considering the model performance this year.

Lol euro... Vorticity goes west moisture goes north.

[SFLcane]

Gfs -p won’t budge...

[SFLcane]

Big outlier for now.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1310657557560688641

[aspen]

When is shear expected to become favorable for development? That wave is really vigorous, and given how everything wants to spin up this year, there’s a chance it could develop earlier than even when the GFS-Para is showing.