Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[cheezyWXguy]

Lol up to Brownsville and then darts east by hour 348. We may not even get a landfall in the 16 day period. Think it’s safe to throw this one out

[Hurricaneman]

Lol up to Brownsville and then darts east by hour 348. We may not even get a landfall in the 16 day period. Think it’s safe to throw this one out

If Mitch didnt happen in 1998 I'd agree with you but there is a small chance this pulls such a track but have to think its causing too much interaction with the wave behind it

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro Ensembles and Operational seems to be more in line with what is going on with this rather than the GFS and its weird track

[cheezyWXguy]

Lol up to Brownsville and then darts east by hour 348. We may not even get a landfall in the 16 day period. Think it’s safe to throw this one out

If Mitch didnt happen in 1998 I'd agree with you but there is a small chance this pulls such a track but have to think its causing too much interaction with the wave behind it

The reason I think it’s bunk is because of the steering mechanism. Mitch was pushed south by a developing ridge, while this storm’s erratic movement is caused by a fujiwara interaction with the system behind it, which moves unreasonably fast through the Caribbean, in my opinion.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS ensembles are centering on the NW Caribbean at hr 216, I'm not sure if its this system or the one behind

[AJC3]

The GFS ensembles are centering on the NW Caribbean at hr 216, I'm not sure if its this system or the one behind

If you follow the H85 streamline/vort fields over the next week, you can see that the cyclogenesis is a combination of large scale mass convergence associated with two features:

1) NW-N flow pushing southward into the western Caribbean behind a strong cold front that stalls out over the area.
2) The eastern Caribbean tropical wave approaching from the east

As you mentioned, there may even be a third wave coming into the western Caribbean from the east around day 8-9, provided the system is still hanging around in the area by then. And as is usually the case, given the pattern and time frame, op-model runs are pretty 'meh' to look at compared to the ensembles.

[GCANE]

Looks like tomorrow a deep wave will start to interact with the persistent surface lows that normal sit offshore of Panama and Columbia
GFS spins a warm core up a couple days later.

[GCANE]

Tons of LL TPW convergence from the typical land interaction with Nic / Hon and then with the very-strong front.

[GCANE]

The Rossby Wave associated with the strong front pulls back and falls apart once this gets in the GoM setting up a very broad Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break in the GoM for this to develop.

[GCANE]

ICON is right on the money with GFS for genesis, time and location.

[GCANE]

Appears ICON wants to take this thru the Yucatan Channel

[GCANE]

Navgem spins it up later and more north where ICON and GFS would have it then.
Very aggressive development into the east GoM.

[GCANE]

GFS-Para same as Navgem.
Takes it to Tampa Bay.

[tiger_deF]

That's some serious trofage being modeled, depending on how potential future gamma interacts with it it could either weaken from cold, dry air and lower sst interaction, or spin it up significantly through baroclinic interactions

[chris_fit]

06 GFS Is Really Odd. ENS though show the same story as previous runs.




ENS

[SFLcane]

06 GFS Is Really Odd. ENS though show the same story as previous runs.

https://i.imgur.com/N0d7lKn.gif


ENS

https://i.imgur.com/VjY5cdE.png

One would argue trof should recurve this NE eventually.

[SFLcane]

Can I post the Nogaps? It sure is bullish

[Fancy1001]

Can I post the Nogaps? It sure is bullish

https://i.postimg.cc/zv18Y8n6/2-DEA3951-E9-F9-444-A-A781-E1-B59890-AA33.jpg

Whats the strength?

[SFLcane]

Can I post the Nogaps? It sure is bullish

https://i.postimg.cc/zv18Y8n6/2-DEA3951-E9-F9-444-A-A781-E1-B59890-AA33.jpg

Whats the strength?

A major hurricane.

[Fancy1001]

Can I post the Nogaps? It sure is bullish

https://i.postimg.cc/zv18Y8n6/2-DEA3951-E9-F9-444-A-A781-E1-B59890-AA33.jpg

Whats the strength?

A major hurricane.

https://i.postimg.cc/Hstc3s5r/45878426-4-A29-4128-B199-7520-FFDE95-FB.jpg

Looks like I might get to fill out another space on my 2020 bingo card within the next few weeks at this rate. CAT 4 or 5 hurricane into either tampa or miami.