2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[lovingseason2013]

The last sentence is interesting. What exactly does he mean another run of weaponizing hurricanes? "We can see this stuff coming due to past patterns" this just really makes you think. That movie Geostorm might be on to something.

Without getting political here, I think he means some will use it as a way to promote the climate change theory as they have done previously or like they are doing with the wildfires. I'll leave it at that.

As opposed to him already accusing people of doing exactly what he's doing - weaponizing climate. Many of his clients are fossil fuel/oil & gas interests, and plenty of his followers are rubes. I'll leave it at that (not suggesting you are, obviously. We've been posting together for 25 years).

I believe this should be moved to another topic.

[wxman57]

57 what are your thoughts?.. I see you

I'm erecting a barricade across the southern Gulf to prevent hurricane intrusions, similar to my cold air wall on the Canadian border.

Yeah, I've seen the long-range GFS. We typically plan a Disney vacation around the 15th-20th of October (cancelled this year). In almost every year, a hurricane threatens or hits Florida the week before we go. The 12Z GFS may have caught on to the fact that we've cancelled our trip and will remain here in Houston. That's why it is building a ridge over the eastern U.S. and indicating a west Gulf threat instead.

On a more serious note, I think it's indicative that the model is seeing "something" the first week of October in the western Caribbean. It's not uncommon for the GFS to start forecasting development there late season, and it is a prime region for late-season development. Take a look at the 500mb pattern at 240 hrs on the GFS & Euro. Two completely different solutions.

For now, I'll keep an eye on the area but I'm getting to take the rest of the week off and probably next Thu-Fri, too. I think there's a fair chance something may form in the region in early October, but I'm not worrying about it today.

[TheProfessor]

12z GEFS is much more active.

https://i.imgur.com/84pKzuN.png

It's more bullish because it was updated from what was previously the Para on Tropical Tidbits, in regards to the Para it isn't much different than what was being shown before.

[CourierPR]

As opposed to him already accusing people of doing exactly what he's doing - weaponizing climate. Many of his clients are fossil fuel/oil & gas interests, and plenty of his followers are rubes. I'll leave it at that (not suggesting you are, obviously. We've been posting together for 25 years).

I believe this should be moved to another topic.

Why? Someone quoted him discussing models and the tweet in question was an advance attack. caneman answered a question, and I responded. I was in no way being political. If I was, the board and probably 43% of the posters would be burned alive with the fires of truth. Why? Because I don't follow cultish leaders, I don't lie, and I don't get conned. Also, I don't respond to emotion. And I'll leave it at that.

I apologize for starting the firestorm. I posted Bastardi's tweet last evening only to show that a certified meteorologist was seeing possible Caribbean mischief in early October.

[Steve]

I believe this should be moved to another topic.

Why? Someone quoted him discussing models and the tweet in question was an advance attack. caneman answered a question, and I responded. I was in no way being political. If I was, the board and probably 43% of the posters would be burned alive with the fires of truth. Why? Because I don't follow cultish leaders, I don't lie, and I don't get conned. Also, I don't respond to emotion. And I'll leave it at that.

I apologize for starting the firestorm. I posted Bastardi's tweet last evening only to show that a certified meteorologist was seeing possible Caribbean mischief in early October.

It's all good man. I watch his videos most Saturdays. He's always slipping in some agenda on those too. I take all that with a grain of salt. I self-reported my post in case it needs to get deleted. You are all good.

[LarryWx]

12z GEFS is much more active.

https://i.imgur.com/84pKzuN.png

It's more bullish because it was updated from what was previously the Para on Tropical Tidbits, in regards to the Para it isn't much different than what was being shown before.

Excellent point. Related to this, folks need to keep in mind is that there are 31 members in this new GEFS version 12 (the former “para GEFS”) as opposed to the 21 members of the prior GEFS. So, that alone could additionally make the transition seem a bit more active.

Regardless, the 12Z GEFS is pretty active even if it isn’t too much different from the 6Z para GEFS.

[SFLcane]

12z GEFS is much more active.

https://i.imgur.com/84pKzuN.png

It's more bullish because it was updated from what was previously the Para on Tropical Tidbits, in regards to the Para it isn't much different than what was being shown before.

Excellent point. Related to this, folks need to keep in mind is that there are 31 members in this new GEFS version 12 (the former “para GEFS”) as opposed to the 21 members of the prior GEFS. So, that alone could additionally make the transition seem a bit more active.

Regardless, the 12Z GEFS is pretty active even if it isn’t too much different from the 6Z para GEFS.

Yea had forgotten about new gefs having 31 members now. Regardless a good chunk heads northeastward towards FL.

[SoupBone]

57 what are your thoughts?.. I see you

I'm erecting a barricade across the southern Gulf to prevent hurricane intrusions, similar to my cold air wall on the Canadian border.

Yeah, I've seen the long-range GFS. We typically plan a Disney vacation around the 15th-20th of October (cancelled this year). In almost every year, a hurricane threatens or hits Florida the week before we go. The 12Z GFS may have caught on to the fact that we've cancelled our trip and will remain here in Houston. That's why it is building a ridge over the eastern U.S. and indicating a west Gulf threat instead.

On a more serious note, I think it's indicative that the model is seeing "something" the first week of October in the western Caribbean. It's not uncommon for the GFS to start forecasting development there late season, and it is a prime region for late-season development. Take a look at the 500mb pattern at 240 hrs on the GFS & Euro. Two completely different solutions.

For now, I'll keep an eye on the area but I'm getting to take the rest of the week off and probably next Thu-Fri, too. I think there's a fair chance something may form in the region in early October, but I'm not worrying about it today.

Well this would be a 2020 thing to do. Instead of threatening Florida, threaten Texas. The problem with that is that Texas is closed. No canes allowed.

[WeatherEmperor]

Maybe...just maybe the Euro is hinting at lower pressure starting to form at the end of the run? Here is the GFS and Euro both at 240hrs. The Euro shows hints of low pressure forming but maybe the GFS is stronger to my untrained eye? The overall setup looks almost identical for being so far out at 240hrs





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[TheStormExpert]

57 what are your thoughts?.. I see you

I'm erecting a barricade across the southern Gulf to prevent hurricane intrusions, similar to my cold air wall on the Canadian border.

Yeah, I've seen the long-range GFS. We typically plan a Disney vacation around the 15th-20th of October (cancelled this year). In almost every year, a hurricane threatens or hits Florida the week before we go. The 12Z GFS may have caught on to the fact that we've cancelled our trip and will remain here in Houston. That's why it is building a ridge over the eastern U.S. and indicating a west Gulf threat instead.

On a more serious note, I think it's indicative that the model is seeing "something" the first week of October in the western Caribbean. It's not uncommon for the GFS to start forecasting development there late season, and it is a prime region for late-season development. Take a look at the 500mb pattern at 240 hrs on the GFS & Euro. Two completely different solutions.

For now, I'll keep an eye on the area but I'm getting to take the rest of the week off and probably next Thu-Fri, too. I think there's a fair chance something may form in the region in early October, but I'm not worrying about it today.

Well this would be a 2020 thing to do. Instead of threatening Florida, threaten Texas. The problem with that is that Texas is closed. No canes allowed.

In a typical season Beta would likely be the last threat to the Texas Gulf Coast. But as you said 2020 does what it wants.

[aspen]

12z CMC clearly shows a tropical wave entering the central/western Caribbean by October 3rd, right when the GFS is developing the WCar system.

[SFLcane]

Let’s see if the 18z GFS continues as previous runs with a track north instead of heading into Central America.

[WxEp]

12z ECMWF ensembles backed off on the potential WCar system compared to 12z yesterday and 00z today.

[SFLcane]

12z ECMWF ensembles backed off on the potential WCar system compared to 12z yesterday and 00z today.

There hasn’t been much support to begin with from EPS.

[WxEp]

12z ECMWF ensembles backed off on the potential WCar system compared to 12z yesterday and 00z today.

There hasn’t been much support to begin with from EPS.

That is true, but by my count yesterday's 12z had around 10 members showing development. Today's 12z only has 2-3.

[Blown Away]

Oct/Nov hurricanes that impacted Florida... The red lines just to show when a hurricane moves in between those lines during Oct/Nov there is a high chance of a Florida landfall, basically from the NW Yucatan to W Central Cuba...Oct/Nov becomes mostly NW Caribbean and Florida time for hurricanes...

[cheezyWXguy]

I am betting the 18z gfs is going to a north-mover. Trough is further south and sharper. As of hour 246 development looks to be taking place just off the Yucatán/Honduras, but theres another low pressure to the southeast

[cheezyWXguy]

Yep, moves NNE into Florida as a sheared ts. Trough evolution is noticeably different than 12z so I don’t theres much takeaway beyond that it’s another run that develops the system in the same general timeframe. Not taking this seriously until development is depicted within 7 days or we get some pattern consistency

[SFLcane]

18z GFS Weak shredded mess into FL.

[Visioen]

Ok interesting. I'll check back in a week.

Which actually means I'm going to look at it again first thing in the morning.