2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[galaxy401]

Besides Laura and Nana, the northern Caribbean has gone relatively untouched. No major cruisers and it’s hard to say that the area has had any brewed storms, considering Nana took her time to develop and finally did so while in the area. Anything that goes through there will bomb out pretty quick, I won’t be surprised. I could see RE similar to Wilma with a potential system there.

The Western Caribbean in general has been untouched for almost a decade now. Some storms like Michael formed in that region but mainly strengthened in the Gulf. Other storms were too weak to take advantage of the hot waters in the area and were making landfall when they did start to organize. I think Rina in 2011 was the last time we had a strong hurricane in that region.

[TheProfessor]

GEFS has the same convective bias as the GFS in these situations. We can't really use the rest of the hurricane season as a comparison unfortunately. I would like to see this on the EPS

The EPS has been bad and has missed storms this year, waiting for that might mean waiting until the systems forms in the Caribbean. If the GEFS-para and GEFS were on their own, that would be one thing, but they also have the GEPS on board(which is likely a bit too aggressive right now.).

Burned to many times but this ridiculous model bias on the gfs. Meh...

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1308457623897993217?

Look at my reply to his tweet.

[SFLcane]

The EPS has been bad and has missed storms this year, waiting for that might mean waiting until the systems forms in the Caribbean. If the GEFS-para and GEFS were on their own, that would be one thing, but they also have the GEPS on board(which is likely a bit too aggressive right now.).

Burned to many times but this ridiculous model bias on the gfs. Meh...

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1308457623897993217?

Look at my reply to his tweet.

I see... well we shall see.

[TheProfessor]

Burned to many times but this ridiculous model bias on the gfs. Meh...

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1308457623897993217?

Look at my reply to his tweet.

I see... well we shall see.

It will likely be obvious in the next 5-7 days instead of 10-14 days. Since the source of this storm is from a tropical wave and not a random phantom, if that wave doesn't survive the MDR then we should see the ensembles show less and less support.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS-p ensembles...

[SouthFLTropics]

If you watch this loop of the 12z Euro Ensembles, late in the period when you get into the 200+ hour range you will notice that it starts to light up in the South Central Caribbean. Early indicators of what's to come on future runs??? Maybe it is, Maybe it isn't. Stay tuned...

[SouthFLTropics]

Meanwhile, while we post the 12z runs, I'm over here tapping my fingers waiting for the 06z run of the GFS-Para to complete on TT... I want to see if shows the same hijinks that the 00z run did last night.

[cheezyWXguy]

Look at my reply to his tweet.

I see... well we shall see.

It will likely be obvious in the next 5-7 days instead of 10-14 days. Since the source of this storm is from a tropical wave and not a random phantom, if that wave doesn't survive the MDR then we should see the ensembles show less and less support.

I’m not even sure where ventrice is getting this. The storm is clearly still there on the gfs and forms at the same time. The only reason it doesn’t get very strong is because of land interaction. I don’t see a decrease in signal on the gfs, gefs, para, or para ensembles, even though the tracks are all over the place

[WxEp]

12z EPS starting to come onboard. This system does not appear to be a phantom to me, especially because it is coming from an existing wave and not a GFS phantom CAG like we sometimes see.

[SFLcane]

12z EPS starting to come onboard. This system does not appear to be a phantom to me, especially because it is coming from an existing wave and not a GFS phantom CAG like we sometimes see.

https://i.imgur.com/EUTe9QP.png

Ok now this is something.

[AutoPenalti]

12z EPS starting to come onboard. This system does not appear to be a phantom to me, especially because it is coming from an existing wave and not a GFS phantom CAG like we sometimes see.

https://i.imgur.com/EUTe9QP.png

Ok now this is something.

Time to @ Mikey on his Twitch chat.

[aspen]

12z EPS starting to come onboard. This system does not appear to be a phantom to me, especially because it is coming from an existing wave and not a GFS phantom CAG like we sometimes see.

https://i.imgur.com/EUTe9QP.png

What’s even more interesting is the strong signal for a strong TS or a hurricane in the MDR. Maybe Hurricanes Gamma and Delta are coming for early October?

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

Meanwhile, while we post the 12z runs, I'm over here tapping my fingers waiting for the 06z run of the GFS-Para to complete on TT... I want to see if shows the same hijinks that the 00z run did last night.

[SFLcane]

Caribbean is now highlighted for potential TC development.

[SFLcane]

Interesting...

[toad strangler]

Caribbean is now highlighted for potential TC development.

https://i.postimg.cc/KcDrbtxW/6-A425183-3367-450-E-84-E5-1038-EA911181.jpg

OK that is intriguing.

[cheezyWXguy]

Meanwhile, while we post the 12z runs, I'm over here tapping my fingers waiting for the 06z run of the GFS-Para to complete on TT... I want to see if shows the same hijinks that the 00z run did last night.

https://i.postimg.cc/W4YCXxfM/A45-C8-AD4-9-B4-B-4-EBF-BC36-EDACF955-A410.jpg

Ha that’s a pretty bizarre looking evolution of that system. Like a TS and cat1 joined at the hip

[SouthFLTropics]

Meanwhile, while we post the 12z runs, I'm over here tapping my fingers waiting for the 06z run of the GFS-Para to complete on TT... I want to see if shows the same hijinks that the 00z run did last night.

https://i.postimg.cc/W4YCXxfM/A45-C8-AD4-9-B4-B-4-EBF-BC36-EDACF955-A410.jpg

Ha that’s a pretty bizarre looking evolution of that system. Like a TS and cat1 joined at the hip

Probably a sloppy and sheared TS or low end Cat 1 getting pulled quickly out of the Caribbean and riding the front North Northeast. Large coverage area but quick moving. You can see it gets snatched out of the Caribbean and is up to near Georgia within 36 hours. Irene from 1999 may be a good analog.

[MetroMike]

I see... well we shall see.

It will likely be obvious in the next 5-7 days instead of 10-14 days. Since the source of this storm is from a tropical wave and not a random phantom, if that wave doesn't survive the MDR then we should see the ensembles show less and less support.

I’m not even sure where ventrice is getting this. The storm is clearly still there on the gfs and forms at the same time. The only reason it doesn’t get very strong is because of land interaction. I don’t see a decrease in signal on the gfs, gefs, para, or para ensembles, even though the tracks are all over the place

May be a case of Ventrice wanting to see something develop but if it does not at least he was right.