Area over Cuba
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: Area SE of Florida
Hmm... 12Z GFS shear map shows an anticyclone and hence very low shear by hour 72 over the FL Straits and W Cuba. If our nascent vorticity/LLC happens to be under it at that time, it certainly would favor some development. Water temps in the FL Straits and around Cuba are running 30C+, about as warm as you ever see them. GFS shows Mid level dry air currently behind the front begins to modify and moisten by then. The suppressive phase of the CCKW could hamper it, but late September is still prime time for this area, so that factor is probably just neutral. Considering how fertile a zone this has been, I will go with 40% chance this becomes a named system, at least a low end TS.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Area SE of Florida
Emmett_Brown wrote:Hmm... 12Z GFS shear map shows an anticyclone and hence very low shear by hour 72 over the FL Straits and W Cuba. If our nascent vorticity/LLC happens to be under it at that time, it certainly would favor some development. Water temps in the FL Straits and around Cuba are running 30C+, about as warm as you ever see them. GFS shows Mid level dry air currently behind the front begins to modify and moisten by then. The suppressive phase of the CCKW could hamper it, but late September is still prime time for this area, so that factor is probably just neutral. Considering how fertile a zone this has been, I will go with 40% chance this becomes a named system, at least a low end TS.
Yes, I saw the things you mentioned here at work assessing my analysis above Emmett. This is why I agreed with Stewart last night as well. I think this has a decent shot to develop.
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Re: Area SE of Florida
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Re: Area SE of Florida
MetroMike wrote:aspen wrote:Do we know how north into the eastern Gulf this is expected to go? Due to Sally's upwelling, SSTs take a pretty sharp drop north of 25-27N, and would probably not be good for another slower-moving system.
Still sufficient warmth in the Gulf to support development as we have seen many subtropical systems developing in even cooler SST's.
Plus the SSTs in the northern Gulf aren't that cool, even after Sally. They just look cold when you compare them with the 30-31C bathwater elsewhere in the Gulf and west Caribbean.
Lowest I'm seeing on the map right now is somewhere around 27.5C. We probably won't get anything to RI to a major up there, but that water is still above the usual 26.5C limit for tropical cyclogenesis.
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- DestinHurricane
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Re: Area SE of Florida
Pompano321 wrote:Boynton beach today High tide
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/932x ... 6UuhqN.jpg
Tide was very high here in boca as well.
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Michael 2018
Re: Area SE of Florida
DestinHurricane wrote:Pompano321 wrote:Boynton beach today High tide
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/932x ... 6UuhqN.jpg
Tide was very high here in boca as well.
Pretty high in Fort Pierce as well, with some minor street flooding on Hutchinson Island and the waves are running all the way up to the dunes.
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Re: Area SE of Florida
If shear relaxes down in the straits of Florida and the adjacent areas, this could be a real home grown washed out front menace. Latest visible shows the familiar look of a developing TC and five point thunderstorm look that is pretty symmetrical. Still low probability at this time, but definitely worth keeping an eye on. Forecast is for this area to migrate north over the peninsula later this week.
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- stormhunter7
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Re: Area SE of Florida
FYI, there is a low level spin in the GOM, to the wNW of key west.
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Re: Area SE of Florida
There is a large anticyclone over the gulf and the trough is still drifting south.
20% sounds about right since there is already a broad area with some slow turning west of Andros island.
20% sounds about right since there is already a broad area with some slow turning west of Andros island.
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Re: Area SE of Florida
Singer Island live cam of the waves
https://video-monitoring.com/beachcams/ ... stream.htm
Loads better of Jupiter
http://www.evsjupiter.com/
https://video-monitoring.com/beachcams/ ... stream.htm
Loads better of Jupiter
http://www.evsjupiter.com/
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- cycloneye
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Re: Area SE of Florida
An area of showers and thunderstorms located over the Central
Bahamas, the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida is associated
with a frontal system. This disturbance is forecast to continue
moving southward over central and western Cuba during the next
couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through
Saturday. Marginally conducive environmental conditions are
expected when the system approaches the Florida Keys and South
Florida late this week, and development, if any, should be slow to
occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across the Florida Keys tonight, and over western Cuba
on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Bahamas, the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida is associated
with a frontal system. This disturbance is forecast to continue
moving southward over central and western Cuba during the next
couple of days, and then move back northward on Thursday through
Saturday. Marginally conducive environmental conditions are
expected when the system approaches the Florida Keys and South
Florida late this week, and development, if any, should be slow to
occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across the Florida Keys tonight, and over western Cuba
on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Area in Florida Straits

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- cycloneye
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Re: Area over Cuba
8 AM TWO:
Showers and thunderstorms extending from the southeastern Bahamas
westward through Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are
associated with a cold front. This system is forecast to move
slowly southward during the next couple of days, and then move back
northward on Thursday through Saturday. Development, if any, over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week is expected to be
slow to occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
is possible over portions of Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday and over
the Florida Keys and south Florida on Thursday and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
westward through Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are
associated with a cold front. This system is forecast to move
slowly southward during the next couple of days, and then move back
northward on Thursday through Saturday. Development, if any, over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week is expected to be
slow to occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
is possible over portions of Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday and over
the Florida Keys and south Florida on Thursday and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: Area over Cuba
Convection slowly starting to build in the southern GOM and off the west coast of Cuba this morning, southern GOM just might be the area to watch... tbd
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif
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- cycloneye
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Re: Area over Cuba
Showers and thunderstorms extending from the southeastern Bahamas
westward through Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are
associated with a cold front. This system is forecast to move
little for the next day or so, then move back northward on Thursday
through Saturday. While development of this system over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week is very unlikely, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Cuba through Wednesday
and over the Florida Keys and south Florida on Thursday and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
westward through Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico are
associated with a cold front. This system is forecast to move
little for the next day or so, then move back northward on Thursday
through Saturday. While development of this system over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week is very unlikely, locally
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Cuba through Wednesday
and over the Florida Keys and south Florida on Thursday and Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

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Re: Area over Cuba
SFLcane wrote::blowup:
Rain for Florida late week.
I'm already bored of yesterday's rainfall.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- cycloneye
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Re: Area over Cuba
8 PM TWO= No mention.
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Re: Area over Cuba
And...gone
Looks like the Atlantic will take a short break on tropical cyclones.
Looks like the Atlantic will take a short break on tropical cyclones.
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Re: Area over Cuba
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