NWS MIAMI FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON........

[dixiebreeze]

South Florida area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
255 PM EST Sat Nov 1 2003


Discussion...
surface low currently south of Bermuda continuing to track toward
South Florida. GFS seems to have a much better handle on the
situation as it initialized parameters more realistically. As this
low approaches showers will be on the increase over the Atlantic
with this trend already showing up on satellite imagery and local
radars. Will therefore up the probability of precipitation tonight along the east coast
although still keep them at isolated. This low is mainly a middle to
upper level feature so would not be surprised to see thunder also on
the increase as the associated airmass will become quite unstable as
it passes over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. The low will be
just about over mia by 12z Monday so will likely see a decrease in
activity from east to west during the day as it continues moving
westward. It will then move into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday night
along with drier air once again settling in across the region
through midweek. Easterly flow will continue through the extended
period so will keep mention of isolated east coast probability of precipitation.


Marine...
current winds northeast in the range of 20 to 25 knots and this
trend will continue through tonight. As low approaches winds will be
on the increase on Sunday. GFS does show 30 knot winds across the
northern portion of our county warning area so will keep the mention of 25 to 30
knots over the Atlantic waters and 20 to 25 knots for the Bay and
Gulf waters. Any gale force gusts should remain just north of the
region and will not mention at this time. One concern will be for
possible heavy surf advisory for Sunday particularly along the Palm
Beach coastline. Current surf cams show the roughest seas north of
Palm Beach but with winds increasing on Sunday may have issue heavy
surf advisory but that would not occur until Sunday so will let
tonight's shift handle this. As low moves into the Gulf winds will
become more southeasterly and decrease along with seas through
midweek.

[Josephine96]

Thank you for that excerpt Dixie.. I wonder if Tampa/Miami/Melbourne will get a tad bit more concerned about this system since it may develop.. even if it's just a little..

[stormchazer]

Thank you for that excerpt Dixie.. I wonder if Tampa/Miami/Melbourne will get a tad bit more concerned about this system since it may develop.. even if it's just a little..

Tampa is oblivious believe me.

[ameriwx2003]

Yep.. the Tampa evening AFD gives this system a great big yawn:):):)

FXUS62 KTBW 020234
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
930 PM EST SAT NOV 1 2003

.CURRENT/SHORT TERM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVER NORTHERN FA. WINDS AROUND 10 KT OVER LAND BUT 15
TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF. TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE AS A
WEAK SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS MOVES SOUTH OF A RIDGE CENTERED
NORTH OF FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE WEST OVER OR NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA
MONDAY. FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK AND WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES.

.MARINE... WINDS CONTINUE IN THE SCEC CATEGORY OVER THE GULF.
WINDS AND WAVES TO PICK UP SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON AS THE LOW EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS NEARS.

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

$$

CP





FXUS62 KTAE 020130

[Josephine96]

Yeah.. they're riding it off.. Until the NHC issues watches or warnings for the Florida Atlantic coast rotflmao j/k