ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Are we going to see a run at Cat 5 tonight?

I think it’s possible but I’d be surprised if it did so overnight. It’s more likely for a mid cat 4 to me

Who knows? Lorenzo peaked after weakening from a Cat 4 due to an EWRC. Everyone thought it had already reached its maximum intensity.

[aspen]

Are we going to see a run at Cat 5 tonight?

I think it’s possible but I’d be surprised if it did so overnight. It’s more likely for a mid cat 4 to me

Who knows? Lorenzo peaked after weakening from a Cat 4 due to an EWRC. Everyone thought it had already reached its maximum intensity.

Well, we won’t know directly. Recon is already leaving after just one pass whose data never came through. This is probably one of the worst recon flights ever.

[ElectricStorm]

I think it’s possible but I’d be surprised if it did so overnight. It’s more likely for a mid cat 4 to me

Who knows? Lorenzo peaked after weakening from a Cat 4 due to an EWRC. Everyone thought it had already reached its maximum intensity.

Well, we won’t know directly. Recon is already leaving after just one pass whose data never came through. This is probably one of the worst recon flights ever.

That's disappointing... Hopefully they get another one on there ASAP

[plasticup]

I think it’s possible but I’d be surprised if it did so overnight. It’s more likely for a mid cat 4 to me

Who knows? Lorenzo peaked after weakening from a Cat 4 due to an EWRC. Everyone thought it had already reached its maximum intensity.

Well, we won’t know directly. Recon is already leaving after just one pass whose data never came through. This is probably one of the worst recon flights ever.

I am glad they are safe. They didn't turn back for no reason.

[ElectricStorm]

Back up it goes
20L TEDDY 200919 0000 23.5N 57.0W ATL 115 950

[ClarCari]

At least we’ll get intermediate advisories and more flights for the next day as it’s definitely gonna deepen.

[ElectricStorm]

Hmm recon looks to be going back in now

[ElectricStorm]

Dropsonde 946 mb. Looks to be deepening still

[ElectricStorm]

Something's still not right. They turned back to get a pass but then decided against it appears.

[aspen]

IR imagery suggests Teddy is nearing its EWRC. This must’ve been one last bit of deepening before the outer eyewall fully closed off.

The expanding yet slightly warming CDO and the shrinking eye, coupled with microwave imagery, screams EWRC.

[Aric Dunn]

ERC is nearly complete.

[ClarCari]

ERC is nearly complete.

https://i.ibb.co/YfnqWvF/Capture.png

Just so I’m sure bc I’m still a noobie, weakening happens during the EWRC process and then restrengthening happens right when it’s done correct?

[ElectricStorm]

ERC is nearly complete.

https://i.ibb.co/YfnqWvF/Capture.png

Just so I’m sure bc I’m still a noobie, weakening happens during the EWRC process and then restrengthening happens right when it’s done correct?

Generally yes. But, it seems like Teddy has been strengthening over the last several hours. So maybe it somehow strengthened during the EWRC?

[aspen]

ERC is nearly complete.

https://i.ibb.co/YfnqWvF/Capture.png

That’s gonna be a massive eye when it opens up in 12-24 hours.

[PavelGaborik10]

I don't think I've ever seen a Hurricane deepen during an EWRC. I've seen some maintain quite well, but deepen? This is rather strange.

[ElectricStorm]

I don't think I've ever seen a Hurricane deepen during an EWRC. I've seen some maintain quite well, but deepen? This is rather strange.

Best track went up to 115kts and pressure was 946 in the dropsonde so it could have strengthened slightly.

One storm that I think strengthened through EWRC was Typhoon Haiyan... but obviously that's on an entirely different level. I wasn't tracking storms back then but looking through the Haiyan thread on here that may have been the case.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't think I've ever seen a Hurricane deepen during an EWRC. I've seen some maintain quite well, but deepen? This is rather strange.

Katrina gradually strengthened during her series of ewrc’s before taking off

[PavelGaborik10]

Teddy is going to have a massive eye in very, very short order.

[ElectricStorm]

Officially back to Cat4

[msbee]

Wow, TEDDY is one amazing hurricane both structurally and sizewise. Those of you in the Virgin Islands/ Leewards must be feeling quite lucky seeing this thing headed NW, as your locales now appear in the picture safely southeast of this major hurricane.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Teddy go back up to a solid Cat 4 once again, and Cat 5 is not out of the question still.

Yes, we are relieved Teddy has gone north of us.
We had quite a downpour here in St Maarten this afternoon as one of those feeder bands passed us.
I had about 2.5 inches of rain in about 45 minutes at my house.
Grateful it was nothing more serious.
Hoping Bermuda will be OK.