This mornings 12Z ETA Run!

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KatDaddy
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This mornings 12Z ETA Run!

#1 Postby KatDaddy » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:08 am

Wow Check this out!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/staff/carbin/mdl12/eta.html
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Josephine96

#2 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Nov 01, 2003 10:10 am

through the straits and South Florida and into the gulf..? Hmm.. doesn't seem too surprising. We shall see what happens..
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#3 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Nov 01, 2003 11:04 am

Well that's pretty darn interesting! We shall see.......
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Nov 01, 2003 11:21 am

The ETA is the worst model to use for tropical.

Gotta wait a little more time (the full run isn't loaded yet ... look at the timeframe jump backwards on the ETA ... BTW, the closed low depiction was from yesterday (and a total model outlier) ... today's 12z depiction is more reasonable -- no closed low depiction (and more in line with the other globals today)

SF
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Josephine96

#5 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Nov 01, 2003 11:37 am

Yes Dixie.. I do agree it is pretty interesting. Lets' wait and see if anything comes out of this.

By the way.. It's a beautiful day here now lol :)
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ColdFront77

#6 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Nov 01, 2003 1:56 pm

Two things after viewing the loop (the link above)...

1.) As we have seen (and has been mentioned) there has been a lot of uniformity with many of the forecast models. Other models have indicated tracks further north.

2.) It looks like in the last image, the low in the Gulf of Mexico is about to get picked up and moved northeastward. This makes sense in terms of the cold front moving toward the southeastern U.S.; but can't tell it is something this loop does, in terms of it "bouncing" on the last frame.
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#7 Postby bfez1 » Sat Nov 01, 2003 2:30 pm

Local mets here are talking Texas at this time.
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#8 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Nov 01, 2003 2:36 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Two things after viewing the loop (the link above)...

1.) As we have seen (and has been mentioned) there has been a lot of uniformity with many of the forecast models. Other models have indicated tracks further north.

2.) It looks like in the last image, the low in the Gulf of Mexico is about to get picked up and moved northeastward. This makes sense in terms of the cold front moving toward the southeastern U.S.; but can't tell it is something this loop does, in terms of it "bouncing" on the last frame.


Tom (and anyone else thinking today's 12z ETA is showing a consolidated closed low), read my post (3rd post in this thread ... the "jump" comes from the last couple of frames (where the low "jumps" NE and mysteriously appears is where the depiction is from yesterday's run) ...

Once again, check the dates on the loop ... slow the loop down and you'll see the time/date backup on the last few frames ...

The 12z ETA of today ... weakens the low after passing Florida and into the GOM ...
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ColdFront77

#9 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Nov 01, 2003 2:42 pm

SF, I did look at the time on the loop. I was responding.
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#10 Postby Stormsfury » Sat Nov 01, 2003 3:12 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:SF, I did look at the time on the loop. I was responding.


And that jump ... I think you see what I'm talking about ... it was overlooked (and not seen by others) ... just wanted to clarify that.

SF
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Rainband

#11 Postby Rainband » Sat Nov 01, 2003 3:37 pm

I think this system will be much to do about nothing :wink:
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