ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Sally probably looks the most like a traditional hurricane it has so far. The strongest winds are in the NE quadrant, after they were in the NW quadrant yesterday. Sally's wind field is much more symmetric as well. It is interesting that NHC is calling for weakening before landfall, despite the global models showing the opposite. At the moment, Sally seems to be steady or on a slight strengthening trend - despite having weaker winds the MSLP is significantly lower than yesterday and much more typical of a storm of this intensity.

Whats also interesting is that the strongest winds in the NE quad are now actually in the eyewall itself, according to radar, and not in that band further removed. Could be a sign that the pressure gradient is tightening.

[Javlin]

She is darn close to it still. With the shape of her eye on radar it can be difficult to tell exact forward motion especially when she is crawling.

If you put it on 1/4 speed when it resets gives you the impression N I see no more encroachment into the boot or on the MGC line the mass looks N

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[LowerAlabamaTider]

What's absolutely crazy is one of our local mets just said she is 57 miles due S of Dauphin Island, and at this pace that is 28 hours before the center would even reach the coast. INSANE

[Stormcenter]

Just curious, when she actually supposed to
start moving?

[bella_may]

Gusts had died down for a few hours but now they’re starting to pick up again here

[Florabamaman]

Santa Rosa County has issued a voluntary evacuation of Zone A and all mobile home residents.

[Fancy1001]

Sally's just taking her sweet time isn't she.

[Extratropical94]

Extrapolated pressure is dropping by 1 mb per pass

[NDG]

It looks like it dropped at least another MB on the latest pass.

URNT15 KWBC 151941
NOAA3 1119A SALLY HDOB 42 20200915
193200 2916N 08819W 6944 03048 9830 +147 +105 313043 044 046 001 00
193230 2917N 08817W 6954 03030 9811 +158 +103 311040 040 045 002 00
193300 2919N 08816W 6943 03032 9806 +151 +109 315035 036 041 002 00
193330 2920N 08814W 6945 03022 9787 +161 +101 318029 030 033 001 00
193400 2922N 08813W 6945 03014 9772 +168 +103 316023 024 027 001 00
193430 2923N 08811W 6945 03010 9765 +171 +088 319016 018 021 001 00
193500 2925N 08809W 6944 03008 9761 +172 +084 317012 013 019 001 00
193530 2926N 08808W 6944 03007 9758 +174 +079 326011 012 018 000 00
193600 2928N 08806W 6945 03003 9756 +174 +084 329009 010 016 000 00
193630 2929N 08804W 6944 03002 9752 +175 +090 022003 007 016 000 00
193700 2930N 08802W 6944 03004 9756 +171 +099 139005 007 018 000 00
193730 2931N 08800W 6944 03005 9751 +174 +106 154011 013 021 000 03
193800 2931N 08758W 6951 02999 9754 +174 +102 170014 015 028 001 00
193830 2930N 08756W 6942 03011 9759 +171 +106 172016 017 031 002 00
193900 2928N 08754W 6945 03006 9763 +169 +101 181017 018 043 004 00
193930 2927N 08753W 6945 03010 9775 +157 +117 189024 025 051 003 00
194000 2925N 08751W 6943 03016 9785 +149 +142 202034 037 055 004 00
194030 2924N 08750W 6942 03021 9794 +146 +137 198041 047 057 005 00
194100 2923N 08748W 6957 03009 9804 +141 //// 199058 060 058 006 01
194130 2921N 08747W 6954 03019 9811 +142 //// 202060 061 057 006 01

[Blow_Hard]

Gusts had died down for a few hours but now they’re starting to pick up again here

The rain bands have been relentless here. Just one after another with a few breaks here and there. Very gusty, not too bad, 20-30mph maybe a 35mph gust here and there...

[Mob1]

Extrapolated pressure is dropping by 1 mb per pass

And the last pass wasn't that long ago as the plane turned right around to make a final pass.

[NDG]

18z sounding from Slidell LA, shows dry air on the NW quadrant of the circulation but notice the stacked circulation all the way up to h20, that dry air is just circulation around it and not being punched into it, unless there is SW shear on the SW quadrant into the circulation.

[Airboy]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 975.2 mb (28.80 inHg)
So arround 978 I would guess, looks like it drops 1 mb for each pass. Center moving a bit north.

[Jag95]

The eye wall is now about 30 miles south of Dauphin Island. Last time I checked this morning it was around 40, so it's creeping. I'm going to say this crosses around Gulf Shores...with P'cola getting the worst of it and possibly getting in the eye as well. Of course, this is not really going out on a very far limb right now.

[Javlin]

193630 2929N 08804W 6944 03002 9752 +175 +090 022003 007 016 000 00

Safe to say that's close to the center being the lowest pressure?

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1305956719881789441

[Steve]

I’ve seen some here mention before that a good guess for landfall point will be where the lowest pressures are along the coast. The lowest pressures at this time are in the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area. That is likely a good guess for landfall in my opinion.

Yes it is. It's old school forecasting that the old guy tv mets used to use when I was a kid. And I'm old. When it is most useful is with a moving storm and you want to narrow down a landfall range.

Besides looking for lowest pressure, another thing to look for is pressure falls. If a buoy or land station shows a rapid fall compared to other stations, you can generally lay your money down that's where it's going.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

The eye wall is now about 30 miles south of Dauphin Island. Last time I checked this morning it was around 40, so it's creeping. I'm going to say this crosses around Gulf Shores...with P'cola getting the worst of it and possibly getting in the eye as well. Of course, this is not really going out on a very far limb right now.

Very possibly, but not set in stone with this one.

[FLpanhandle91]

Man that northern eye wall looks intense right now.

[northjaxpro]

Just curious, when she actually supposed to
start moving?

Who knows? Your guess would be about as good as anyone else at this point.