ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Airboy]

Looks like the winds are picking up again
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 74 kts (85.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 63 kts (72.5 mph)

[Blow_Hard]

Would expect with the ECM and other guidance coming eastward near P'Cola that Hurricane Warnings would come east to Ft Walton Bch or Destin.

Doubt it dean. They are expecting it to be very weak. We'll see though.

Guess last night the feeling I was getting was right . . . East of Mobile. Once we were in center of cone that was all I had to see.

Not to rain on your parade but Mobile is still going to be very near the COC and while surge effects would be diminished, you're still looking at lots of rain, wind and most definitely power outages and I wouldn't necessarily buy in to the models because they really seem to be struggling with this steering (or lack thereof).

[Extratropical94]

981/2 drop from previous center pass (the one with 977.6 mb extrapolated)

[Dean4Storms]

[quote="Jonny"]Just received 2 alerts for volunteer evacuation in Walton county.[/quot
Me too.

[knappwx]

Latest passes of the NOAA3 showing Sally bouncing between 982mb and 981mb. Subtle shift to the NNE also seen on last few radar images, but this could just be a result of wobbling. Continuation of impacts across the GOM will continue to be felt. Even with NHC projected landfall just under 20 hrs, difference on landfall point is still skewed between the global models by about 100 miles.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... -SALLY.png

[cheezyWXguy]

I think that might actually be the eye starting to come out on IR, instead of just a dry slot like it's been in the past.

[FLpanhandle91]

Eye is clearing out on IR now. If she can get some of that convection upshear, she will make a run back up to cat 2 fairly quick in my opinion.

[NotoSans]

Peak intensity (i.e. data point at 18Z yesterday) has been revised down to 80kt in working best track.

[wx98]

Peak intensity (i.e. data point at 18Z yesterday) has been revised down to 80kt in working best track.

I never thought it should’ve been upgraded to Cat 2 in the first place.

[wx98]

I’ve seen some here mention before that a good guess for landfall point will be where the lowest pressures are along the coast. The lowest pressures at this time are in the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area. That is likely a good guess for landfall in my opinion.

[FLpanhandle91]

Best she's ever looked on IR. Convection looks like it will push it's way into the southern half of the storm and aid in bringing the eye back to a circular characteristic and subsequently close it.

[supercane4867]

Models have been pretty consistent on predicting it to strengthen while approaching land despite the shear.

[CyclonicFury]

Sally probably looks the most like a traditional hurricane it has so far. The strongest winds are in the NE quadrant, after they were in the NW quadrant yesterday. Sally's wind field is much more symmetric as well. It is interesting that NHC is calling for weakening before landfall, despite the global models showing the opposite. At the moment, Sally seems to be steady or on a slight strengthening trend - despite having weaker winds the MSLP is significantly lower than yesterday and much more typical of a storm of this intensity.

[Florabamaman]

I have seen a few radar loops posted on here that have a pink line drawn to signify official NHC track forecast...can anyone provide a link?

[Dave C]

Almost seems to be a battle between two convective bands trying to wrap. The outer band seems to be winning currently.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I have seen a few radar loops posted on here that have a pink line drawn to signify official NHC track forecast...can anyone provide a link?

If this is the one, it's only for Florida:
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[Florabamaman]

I have seen a few radar loops posted on here that have a pink line drawn to signify official NHC track forecast...can anyone provide a link?

If this is the one, it's only for Florida:
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

Bingo! Thanks a million.

[edu2703]

Saved loop

[LowerAlabamaTider]

She is darn close to it still. With the shape of her eye on radar it can be difficult to tell exact forward motion especially when she is crawling.

[Javlin]

Last four VDM's:
14:20:18Z 29.13N 88.21W
15:16:32Z 29.14N 88.16W
16:34:10Z 29.18N 88.13W
17:46:37Z 29.29N 88.08W

Got it