ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Javlin]

I wake up this morning at 4:30am and it's 60 still decent presentation go back to bed to wake up again to see a gravity wave that elicited but a single word response with my first cup of coffee it was a beautiful thing though.Well I am thinking the track is going to be be from Biloxi to the MS/AL line.Now with the relocation and hoping it's no more than 100mph if it's moving slow get me in the eye like Georges I'll be in there for a while. I am off shortly to get some fuel for the generator cancel "Cruisin" for October.

[Blown Away]

Still the low level clouds exposed on the W half of circulation, but definitely improving.

[cfisher]

If that dry spot in the IR is the center then we got a big problem.

It looks like subsidence from the deep convection. The center is probably further SE

[Florabamaman]

I'm in Santa Rosa County, Fl. I just got home from a few errands, including the grocery store. I have a feeling if an Eastward shift happens, all heck is gonna break loose here.

[TheStormExpert]

Is the center where that clearing is?

 https://twitter.com/zackfradellawx/status/1305506171546226688

[ScottNAtlanta]

Saw the first orange wind flag...flt level winds over 60kts

[GCANE]

VDM

Just what I was thinking may happen this morning.

Boderline pinhole

F. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)

[cfisher]

Shear is enhancing these updrafts as they try to rotate around the core. Similar situation happened with Michael.

[wxman57]

Center is still near western edge of convection. That is NOT the center in that black circle above. We have landfall near Gulfport as a 75-85 mph hurricane around 8pm tomorrow.

[northjaxpro]

In my best educated alaysis this cyclone has the Mississippi Coast unfortnately marked as a landfall point with possibly the Louisiana/ Mississppi state border near the Pearl River being the farthest west.

No matter what my prayers to all along the path of this potential dangerous cyclone. GODSPEED!

I am so very worried about storm surge and extreme rainfall with a slow moving cyclone all along the path of Sally.

[Javlin]

Center is still near western edge of convection. That is NOT the center in that black circle above. We have landfall near Gulfport as a 75-85 mph hurricane around 8pm tomorrow.

That's livable I hope the forecast on the winds pans out.

[SouthDadeFish]

Center is still near western edge of convection. That is NOT the center in that black circle above. We have landfall near Gulfport as a 75-85 mph hurricane around 8pm tomorrow.

Are you looking at the same recon data I am? Recon has found the center to be now be east of 87W, which is right in the middle of the deep convection.

[Ian2401]

looks like center is still being pulled E, seems like recon missed center to the W

[Ivanhater]

Hurricane warning extended to Florida border

[cfisher]

Radar is showing center near 86.5

[txwatcher91]

Center is still near western edge of convection. That is NOT the center in that black circle above. We have landfall near Gulfport as a 75-85 mph hurricane around 8pm tomorrow.

The last recon pass showed the center right under the convection and the dropsonde confirmed.

[GCANE]

[weeniepatrol]

From NHC:

An intense burst of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80
degrees Celsius has developed over and the to east of the center
this morning. A recent fix from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicates that the center has reformed to the
east of the previous estimated location, beneath the burst of
deep convection. NWS WSR-88D radar imagery shows an increase in
banding around the eastern and southeastern portion of new center
found by the aircraft and it appears that an eye is in its formative
stage. The aircraft has reported believable SFMR winds of 55 kt, and
that is the basis for the initial intensity. The most recent
minimum pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 991 mb, down
several millibars from the first fix on this flight.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Pressure down to 993 in latest Vortex msg and they missed since sfc winds were 20 kts

[GCANE]

Much stronger rain rate now.
Up to 30+ mm/hr