ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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DucaCane
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1501 Postby DucaCane » Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:42 am

1:00am update shows it moving due west at 12mph.
The faster speed and westerly movement, has to have an impact on the track.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1502 Postby Blow_Hard » Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:54 am

DucaCane wrote:1:00am update shows it moving due west at 12mph.
The faster speed and westerly movement, has to have an impact on the track.


The updated forecast advisory said it was moving Northwest at 7kt or about 8mph. That must be from the 10:00pm advisory I guess.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1503 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:58 am

Perhaps Sally's slow motion works against it due to upwelling. It does have some TCHP to work with though by missing Laura's wake to the north.

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1504 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:13 am

Monsoonjr99 wrote:Perhaps Sally's slow motion works against it due to upwelling. It does have some TCHP to work with though by missing Laura's wake to the north.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/dJchht1/2020256go.jpg [/url]

The Caribbean has been barley touched all year and its ripe as can be. Makes me worried be could possibly have a 2020 version of Wilma in October.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1505 Postby cfisher » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:20 am

Watching for this new hot-tower to rotate upshear.

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1506 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:33 am


Unfortunately it is. What a bloosoming of convection.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1507 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:58 am

I'm thinking it's a 65 to 70mph storm right now.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1508 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:58 am

TXNT22 KNES 140544
TCSNTL

A. 19L (SALLY)

B. 14/0531Z

C. 28.0N

D. 86.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LLCC LCOATED GREATER THAN 1/3 DEGREE UNDER DG RESULTS IN
A DT OF 3.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON
MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LLCC LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1509 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:17 am

Solid "radial finger" ventilation

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1510 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:22 am

What was this? Did the machines go haywire for a sec?

063630 2824N 08553W 1773 13230 0685 -555 //// 156074 157 /// /// 05
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1511 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:22 am

Nothing holding her back.

4000 CAPE in the core with strong helicity and rising.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1512 Postby cfisher » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:27 am

GCANE wrote:Nothing holding her back.

4000 CAPE in the core with strong helicity and rising.

https://i.imgur.com/psKLVds.gif

https://i.imgur.com/bPgI623.gif

https://i.imgur.com/6BlWFpm.gif

Possibly some mid-level dry air on the west side.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1513 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:30 am

IR satellite analysis is estimating 55 knot winds.
Buoy nearby is reporting 48 knot gusts.

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1514 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:36 am

cfisher wrote:
GCANE wrote:Nothing holding her back.

4000 CAPE in the core with strong helicity and rising.

https://i.imgur.com/psKLVds.gif

https://i.imgur.com/bPgI623.gif

https://i.imgur.com/6BlWFpm.gif

Possibly some mid-level dry air on the west side.


Looks like it'll get pinched off from the south.

Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1515 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:51 am

At the moment, appears to be light steering due west.

Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1516 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:54 am

Heading into some increasing shear

Image
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cfisher

Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1517 Postby cfisher » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:00 am

GCANE wrote:
cfisher wrote:
GCANE wrote:Nothing holding her back.

4000 CAPE in the core with strong helicity and rising.

https://i.imgur.com/psKLVds.gif

https://i.imgur.com/bPgI623.gif

https://i.imgur.com/6BlWFpm.gif

Possibly some mid-level dry air on the west side.


Looks like it'll get pinched off from the south.

https://i.imgur.com/mLTwpaj.png

Yeah, it seems like go time. Convection should try to wrap any minute now..
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1518 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:00 am

Sally is going to be a nowcasting storm.
Such a timing difference between the Euro and the GFS. They both get it to the MS delta/lower Plaquemines Parish but the Euro much slower almost 10 hours later, and the Euro takes a whole 24 hrs to get it to Gulfport/Biloxi area, the storm surge for north & east of the mouth of the MS river would be devastating if that happens.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1519 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:14 am

Latest ASCAT analysis has it south of forecast track

Image
Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1520 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:15 am

Image

Curved lightning
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