ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

It's a balance. OTOH being *too* bullish can make people take future storms less serious, but OTOH you don't have to go back very far in history to see what happens with storms in this position. This site and NHC were way too bearish on Laura, but thankfully it impacted a sparsely populated zone.

edit: also we KNOW lightning near the core is a harbringer of RI. There's no need to patronize people for making predictions based on historical data.

Maybe compared to NOLA or Houston you could say Laura hit a “sparsely populated area” but I assure you here in Louisiana Laura caused massive damage all the way up the southwestern side of La. and all the way up to Monroe. Hundreds of thousands of people were directly impacted as she rode up the state.

It's certainly not unreasonable to say Laura made landfall in an unpopulated area.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ed/Louisiana_population_map.png

The whole state of Louisiana is just over 4 million people and Houston has that by itself, so you could say the whole state is sparsely populated, still doesn't mean it didn't effect a lot of people and cost 10's of billions of dollars in damage.

[Blinhart]

I mean technically that is correct. Cameron County is very sparsely populated. But 30 miles inland the Lake Charles metro got hammered with the eye and had 200,000+ people. There was a tremendous amount of damage from probably no worse than Cat 2/3 winds.

Maybe compared to NOLA or Houston you could say Laura hit a “sparsely populated area” but I assure you here in Louisiana Laura caused massive damage all the way up the southwestern side of La. and all the way up to Monroe. Hundreds of thousands of people were directly impacted as she rode up the state.

It's certainly not unreasonable to say Laura made landfall in an unpopulated area.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ed/Louisiana_population_map.png

Not to be nit-picky but in Louisiana it is Parishes not Counties. And yes you are correct Lake Charles got hammered.

[Dean4Storms]

Big burst of convection this evening over the core, should see some deepening commence.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1305326062507876353

[northjaxpro]

I guess I wouldn't be shocked if this was at 972mb in 24 hours and therefore meet the technical definition of RI, but I still just see a storm that continues to slowly organize and has improved some in the past 12 hours.

That is exactly what I am seeing slow but steady intensification. I know not to turn my back on any gulf storm but I just don’t see the rapid intensification in the cards at least with the structure she has right now. Maybe later tonight or tomorrow when she gets stacked in the mid and lower levels. Right now I am just not seeing it

[bella_may]

This might be a hurricane by midnight

[slamdaddy]

This may get interesting really fast.

[CrazyC83]

As far as the track forecast at 10 pm, I would think there will be a slight shift eastward once again. Perhaps to a landfall near Gulfport.

[cfisher]

I mean technically that is correct. Cameron County is very sparsely populated. But 30 miles inland the Lake Charles metro got hammered with the eye and had 200,000+ people. There was a tremendous amount of damage from probably no worse than Cat 2/3 winds.

Maybe compared to NOLA or Houston you could say Laura hit a “sparsely populated area” but I assure you here in Louisiana Laura caused massive damage all the way up the southwestern side of La. and all the way up to Monroe. Hundreds of thousands of people were directly impacted as she rode up the state.

It's certainly not unreasonable to say Laura made landfall in an unpopulated area.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ed/Louisiana_population_map.png

Agreed.

[tropicwatch]

HH not reporting any significant pressure drop yet.

[tolakram]

Shortwave loop

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

IR really tells the story though, significant increase in convection.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tropicwatch]

Shortwave loop

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

IR really tells the story though, significant increase in convection.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Serious expansion

[tolakram]

Saved loop

[us89]

Looking quite impressive for a TS tonight...several areas of -80C cloud tops



If I didn't know better I'd even say that's a little eye trying to pop out.

[Blinhart]

Looking quite impressive for a TS tonight...several areas of -80C cloud tops

https://i.imgur.com/8t5vLHI.gif

If I didn't know better I'd even say that's a little eye trying to pop out.

Trying to decipher where the LLC is actually in all those impressive storms.

[cheezyWXguy]

Not RI but the convective burst is impressive. Moisture is finally wrapping around the north and west quads down to the south now on radar. However I am still seeing precip blobs diving SW across the center on radar, as RL3AO pointed out earlier today.

[3090]

Shortwave loop

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

IR really tells the story though, significant increase in convection.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Convection may be on the increase but looks can certainly be deceiving as we all have come to understand. Nothing in pressure indicates any real intensification from what I see, no?

[SconnieCane]

Looking quite impressive for a TS tonight...several areas of -80C cloud tops

https://i.imgur.com/8t5vLHI.gif

If I didn't know better I'd even say that's a little eye trying to pop out.

Trying to decipher where the LLC is actually in all those impressive storms.

If it's that little dark spot SSW of Port St. Joe, that could be trouble.

[DestinHurricane]

Shortwave loop

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

IR really tells the story though, significant increase in convection.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Convection may be on the increase but looks can certainly be deceiving as we all have come to understand. Nothing in pressure indicates any real intensification from what I see, no?

pressure will lag behind. It is definitely organizing significantly and pressure will follow eventually.

[MississippiWx]

Sally is still working out all the inner core kinks. She is certainly in a much better position than earlier to strengthen significantly tomorrow. Strengthening will probably remain gradual through tonight. As someone pointed out earlier, the western semicircle is a good bit stronger than earlier, indicating that Sally is becoming more symmetrical.