ATL: SALLY - Models

[plasticup]

Thanks Patrick. 16 inches of rain in the city with surge raising the lakes. Lol. That’s not good.

Not given the state of the levees: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/opin ... evees.html

[Steve]

Levees keep the water out every day. They can handle a 1 overall but as the surge and tides come up, it’s harder to pump because everything outside the levees fills up. After an inch or inch and a half first hour, the pumps (when they work) can clear between a half inch and an inch an hour depending on where you are and in what Parish. EC floods the city with rainfall.

[Ivanhater]

TVCN took a pretty big east shift to the Mississippi coast now. Look for the new cone to shift east.

I'm afraid this just means flooding and tornado threat will still be greatest points east for Mississippi Alabama and NW Florida if that continues

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[Blown Away]

TVCN took a pretty big east shift to the Mississippi coast now. Look for the new cone to shift east.

I'm afraid this just means flooding and tornado threat will still be greatest points east for Mississippi Alabama and NW Florida if that continueshttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200913/d90725e5b3ab1bee1a8966a1add55439.jpg

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Also intensity guidance going down, this run most barely making Sally into a Cat 1...

[CrazyC83]

The models have been so back and forth. I'd only nudge the track a touch east for now to near the AVNI (red) line. I'd wait another set before moving it farther.

[Nimbus]

The forward speed and shear haven't shown any sign of easing, maybe the 18Z models will all cave and move this inland quickly as a weaker storm?

[BigB0882]

The forward speed and shear haven't shown any sign of easing, maybe the 18Z models will all cave and move this inland quickly as a weaker storm?

The last posts in the discussion thread state this seems to have slowed quite a bit and shear seems to have dropped as well. Whether this changes or not, remains to be seen.

[Ivanhater]

Well Icon is starting off the 18z suite with yet another shift east to Pensacola. While I think this is too far east, it does seem to be stalling Sally much sooner before turning north.

Definetly something we need to see how slow Sally is moving tomorrow.

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[Ivanhater]

Umm, I just checked the high res models and they are doing the same. Stalls Sally tomorrow and turns her much further east. I hope this is not a trend but if Sally does seem to be stalling tomorrow, that is a sign

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[pcolaman]

Well Icon is starting off the 18z suite with yet another shift east to Pensacola. While I think this is too far east, it does seem to be stalling Sally much sooner before turning north.

Definetly something we need to see how slow Sally is moving tomorrow.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200913/68f8185366cacbbc4294bc4638ead6f7.jpg

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Was just looking at that and was like what?!! Thats a HUGH, BIGLIE Shift!!

[pcolaman]

Guess its a wait and see if the other models follow the ICON.

[DestinHurricane]

Well Icon is starting off the 18z suite with yet another shift east to Pensacola. While I think this is too far east, it does seem to be stalling Sally much sooner before turning north.

Definetly something we need to see how slow Sally is moving tomorrow.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200913/68f8185366cacbbc4294bc4638ead6f7.jpg

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Yikes. Hope this is not a trend. 18Z models ingested a lot of G-IV data so this and 00Z will be an important suite.

[Ivanhater]

Well Icon is starting off the 18z suite with yet another shift east to Pensacola. While I think this is too far east, it does seem to be stalling Sally much sooner before turning north.

Definetly something we need to see how slow Sally is moving tomorrow.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200913/68f8185366cacbbc4294bc4638ead6f7.jpg

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Was just looking at that and was like what?!! Thats a HUGH, BIGLIE Shift!!

I highly doubt it will be that far east but if she starts to crawl tomorrow she could be on the east side of the cone

[SunnyThoughts]

Ivanhater, what's the pressure on both those models...can't really see it with my computer...can you tell?


edit: nevermind I thin the icon says 963

[pcolaman]

Ivanhater, what's the pressure on both those models...can't really see it with my computer...can you tell?

I saw 963 right off the coast

[SunnyThoughts]

Ivanhater, what's the pressure on both those models...can't really see it with my computer...can you tell?

I saw 963 right off the coast

Thanks pcolaman...yeah I went to tropical tidbits and could see it better.

[PTPatrick]

Icon was already further east than the others with a Roughly Pascagoula to dauphin island landfall earlier. I would not be surprised to see others shift more into ms as they all seemed to follow it this morning.

I have been suspect of the slowdown near the mouth Of the MS all day. I think once it slows it’s just Russian roulette from Pensacola to New Orleans where it drifts into shore. I do think Pensacola is a tad too Far East but what do I know. Thinking the target area is MS at this point but where is anybody’s guess.

Not that we look too much at it but nam has also been showing the eastern track. We are close enough I would not totally discount nam.

[PTPatrick]

So far thru 18 hrs gfs is tad stronger and slower, not much track change yet

Edit: yeah gfs def slower, now East of last run at 30 hrs. Def has the slow down and turn look to it. Thinking it’ll be a cleaner MS landfall this time.

42 hrs gfs coming into Harrison county at 979 which is lowish for gfs. Can’t wait to see Hwrf. 18z seems to believe in Sally now that sheer is gone. Well that does it for me...mom is evacuating, lol.

[MississippiWx]

18z GFS continues with the slower trend. Also stronger. I definitely wouldn't sleep on this if I lived in Mobile to Pensacola.

[DestinHurricane]

Much stronger and more east.