ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

Dropsonde just a bit west of the center
998mb (29.47 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 27.0°C (81°F) 20° (from the NNE) 21 knots (24 mph)

2mb lower than the extrap.

 https://twitter.com/stormtrackr64/status/1305113962913161216

[DestinHurricane]

Do you think the track is pretty set in stone. I understand a wobble 50 miles either way can be significant but for those of us in extreme NW FL... the threat seems to be rain at this point?

It's under 3 days now, it's pretty much set in stone. Panhandle will not have significant impacts.

[PavelGaborik10]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1305099120353439744

When he talks I am listening!

Smart guy to be certain but in the comments he himself seems to have failed to identify the anticyclone that's about to aid Sally.

We all can't be flawless.

[aspen]

How much Sally is able to organize herself today and how quickly she stacks will determine how strong she gets before landfall. If the LLC and MLC stack quicker by this afternoon or tonight, a Cat 2/3 is on the table. If the centers stack really late, she might never become a hurricane. Timing is critical when a storm like this is mere days from landfall.

[PavelGaborik10]

How much Sally is able to organize herself today and how quickly she stacks will determine how strong she gets before landfall. If the LLC and MLC stack quicker by this afternoon or tonight, a Cat 2/3 is on the table. If the centers stack really late, she might never become a hurricane. Timing is critical when a storm like this is mere days from landfall.

A cat 2 should come to fruition at this stage. I hardly believe that is a "worse case scenario" right now personally. Could it be the most realistic? Yeah, I would think so. I certainly hope we don't see a cat 3/4 monster breaking ashore.

[MidnightRain]

Do you think the track is pretty set in stone. I understand a wobble 50 miles either way can be significant but for those of us in extreme NW FL... the threat seems to be rain at this point?

It's under 3 days now, it's pretty much set in stone. Panhandle will not have significant impacts.

Even with a Louisiana landfall, extreme NW Florida will still be on the northeast side. Minor storm surge, flooding rain and enough wind to cause some power outages is likely. The effects go up if it hits more towards MS.

[GCANE]

Poleward outflow channel becoming apparent as the ULL is being taken out.

[Blow_Hard]

Do you think the track is pretty set in stone. I understand a wobble 50 miles either way can be significant but for those of us in extreme NW FL... the threat seems to be rain at this point?

It's under 3 days now, it's pretty much set in stone. Panhandle will not have significant impacts.

If you can withstand 10-20mph wind and some heavy downpours here and there you should be good to go here in the Panhandle (with the exception of Escambia County). Watching from a distance and really hoping SE LA and MS Gulf Coasters are not facing a MH.

[GCANE]

62 knot FL @ 850 mb

[3090]

How much Sally is able to organize herself today and how quickly she stacks will determine how strong she gets before landfall. If the LLC and MLC stack quicker by this afternoon or tonight, a Cat 2/3 is on the table. If the centers stack really late, she might never become a hurricane. Timing is critical when a storm like this is mere days from landfall.

A cat 2 should come to fruition at this stage. I hardly believe that is a "worse case scenario" right now personally. Could it be the most realistic? Yeah, I would think so. I certainly hope we don't see a cat 3/4 monster breaking ashore.

The issue is, it will be on the upswing in intensity. And that is really a problem for incoming systems cause you do not know how intense of a system you will end up with.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1305124495301246978



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1305119762188505095



 https://twitter.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1305120215114682370



 https://twitter.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1305121870019260420

[ronjon]

How much Sally is able to organize herself today and how quickly she stacks will determine how strong she gets before landfall. If the LLC and MLC stack quicker by this afternoon or tonight, a Cat 2/3 is on the table. If the centers stack really late, she might never become a hurricane. Timing is critical when a storm like this is mere days from landfall.

It's interesting that the latest HWRF 06z run has backed way off on intensity. This might be a sign that the storm might not rapidly deepen per earlier runs. Or its simply a one off run. 12z suite today will be crucial.

[GCANE]

Just looking thru sounder imagery.
Seeing a very significant cold pool at 550 mb, 10 hrs ago.
Once the warm core gels above this, this could be big.

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe the 06z HWRF lends more credence as Sally is still looking like a hot mess this morning.

 https://twitter.com/tarcweather/status/1305121401628774400

[Do_For_Love]

Wow, looks the like the NHC is feeling more bullish about the intensity this morning - I didn't expect to see 100 MPH predicted. This is a pretty bad situation, between that, the predicted storm surge, and the projected stalling out that will cause a lot of flooding. The stalling out effect is something we are seeing more of it seems and it really sucks. These rainfall total projections are ridiculous.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[ronjon]

Not sure the upper level anticyclone is in an ideal position for Sally to rapidly strengthen. The storm has consistently battled NW shear that won't really allow the storm to vertically stack.

[shiny-pebble]

Maybe the 06z HWRF lends more credence as Sally is still looking like a hot mess this morning.

 https://twitter.com/tarcweather/status/1305121401628774400

Didn't you link a tweet an hour ago saying to not discount a significant hurricane even if it doesn't intensify much today??

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[storm4u]

6z HMON looks to be maybe a cat 2 or so. Today will be important

[storm4u]

6z HWRF is at 998mb in 15 hours it's already 998mb.

[MississippiWx]

The HWRF has been so consistent with this becoming a formidable hurricane. Sometimes, it will have one wacky run and go back to what it was originally showing. We will find out in a few hours if it has truly changed its tone to a weaker system.