ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

Storm total rainfall at Key West Int AP is 9.43 inches so far. Wow.

[eastcoastFL]

Here's the chronic high-CAPE pool I always talk about that sits SE of Houston.
When Sally gets to the NE of that, she'll start drinking in all that unstable air.
That's when things should start getting really intense.

https://i.imgur.com/bvnlflX.png

Thanks G. Always value your input!

My pleasure. I hope you are not effected by this.

Not anymore. Suns coming up now after a long night of pouring rain but that’s all we had to deal with. SW Florida is still getting hammered with heavy storms. I’m sure there’s some flooding down that way.

[GCANE]

Recon dropping down

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1305099120353439744

[eastcoastFL]

Storm total rainfall at Key West Int AP is 9.43 inches so far. Wow.

Geez! Ir looked like it was finally tapering off down there and then more storms starting building further SouthEast and back over Key West. The Keys and the SW portion of the peninsula have really been soaked this weekend.

[Javlin]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1305099120353439744

When he talks I am listening!

[GCANE]

Recon now at 850mb. They are running to fix the center.

[N2FSU]

GCANE, are you thinking a more eastern track may materialize as it approaches the coast? Was just reading your last post regarding the ridge.


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[GCANE]

Drop to the NW of the CoC indicating she is tracking into a nearly saturated boundary layer.
That'll probably cause the models to kick her up a notch.

[GCANE]

GCANE, are you thinking a more eastern track may materialize as it approaches the coast? Was just reading your last post regarding the ridge.


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Actually, thinking more west along the coast to the TX/LA border.

[N2FSU]

GCANE, are you thinking a more eastern track may materialize as it approaches the coast? Was just reading your last post regarding the ridge.


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Actually, thinking more west along the coast to the TX/LA border.

Thanks


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[GCANE]

999mb just west of the tower.

[gfsperpendicular]

Pressure down to 999mb

Edit: or 996mb from the last dropsonde lol

[xironman]

999mb just west of the tower.

That dropsode earlier had a much lower pressure than the extrap, I wonder if it is calibrated right.

[Airboy]

Dropsonde just a bit west of the center
998mb (29.47 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 27.0°C (81°F) 20° (from the NNE) 21 knots (24 mph)

[Jr0d]

Storm total rainfall at Key West Int AP is 9.43 inches so far. Wow.

Widespread flooding here in mid-town. The water has gone down at my place and left a good debris line so we know how high it was, it peaked around mid-night. I was inches away from water in my laundry room. Others in lower locations were not so lucky.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/btangyWx/status/1304878446590464006



 https://twitter.com/btangyWx/status/1304878451581747200



 https://twitter.com/btangyWx/status/1304903313209647106



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1305105572287647745

[xironman]

Dropsonde just a bit west of the center
998mb (29.47 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 27.0°C (81°F) 20° (from the NNE) 21 knots (24 mph)

2mb lower than the extrap.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1305099120353439744

[Kristymac03]

Do you think the track is pretty set in stone. I understand a wobble 50 miles either way can be significant but for those of us in extreme NW FL... the threat seems to be rain at this point?