ATL: SALLY - Models

[Steve]

This would be the worst case scenario for Nola from the angle it would be coming from if the 12z HWRF was to be correct, way worst than when Katrina.

https://i.imgur.com/DdUCqe5.png

**** just got real. Cat 3 in St. Bernard? Maybe 12-24 hours of inner-core? I was supposed to head back to New Orleans tomorrow, but we may just turn around and come back here to Pensacola on Monday. ****.

https://i.imgur.com/5vHzaUp.png

Steve, I am very concerned about this. What are the chances of this coming to fruition? If it is higher than 50%, I am getting out of dodge, like tomorrow morning. Ahead of NOLA folks evacuation. What is your gut telling you?

Idk. It was kind of sudden. Gut tells me I’ll be hitting the store here in Pcola this afternoon after I leave the beach. As far as the intensity, I like 57 and NHC’s idea of a 1. Probably 30-40% it could get to a 2. As for the HWRF and 950s/Cat 3, probably the extreme ceiling and maybe 2-3%?

[DestinHurricane]

**** just got real. Cat 3 in St. Bernard? Maybe 12-24 hours of inner-core? I was supposed to head back to New Orleans tomorrow, but we may just turn around and come back here to Pensacola on Monday. ****.

https://i.imgur.com/5vHzaUp.png

Steve, I am very concerned about this. What are the chances of this coming to fruition? If it is higher than 50%, I am getting out of dodge, like tomorrow morning. Ahead of NOLA folks evacuation. What is your gut telling you?

Idk. It was kind of sudden. Gut tells me I’ll be hitting the store here in Pcola this afternoon after I leave the beach. As far as the intensity, I like 57 and NHC’s idea of a 1. Probably 30-40% it could get to a 2. As for the HWRF and 950s/Cat 3, probably the extreme ceiling and maybe 2-3%?

I don't doubt it could get to major in this environment. RI to major is a possibility.

[Steve]

18Z early guidance.

With this slowing down and bending north and east at landfall I am getting quite concerned for flooding and tornado threat from Mississippi to NW Florida. Models showing 8 to 10 inches in NW Floridahttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200912/f6dca677e9d1bfeda6cd0f18e7823ef1.jpg

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Yeah. That was my point to Destinhurricane.

[Steve]

Steve, I am very concerned about this. What are the chances of this coming to fruition? If it is higher than 50%, I am getting out of dodge, like tomorrow morning. Ahead of NOLA folks evacuation. What is your gut telling you?

Idk. It was kind of sudden. Gut tells me I’ll be hitting the store here in Pcola this afternoon after I leave the beach. As far as the intensity, I like 57 and NHC’s idea of a 1. Probably 30-40% it could get to a 2. As for the HWRF and 950s/Cat 3, probably the extreme ceiling and maybe 2-3%?

I don't doubt it could get to major in this environment. RI to major is a possibility.

Yeah it is. But it seems on the remote side to me <— not that we won’t prepare for a 3 regardless.

[AnnularCane]

I think the rule is to prepare for a category higher than what is predicted?

Edited: Oops, sorry, didn't realize this was the models thread. Maybe the mods can move all this over to the Sally thread?

[KimmieLa]

**** just got real. Cat 3 in St. Bernard? Maybe 12-24 hours of inner-core? I was supposed to head back to New Orleans tomorrow, but we may just turn around and come back here to Pensacola on Monday. ****.

https://i.imgur.com/5vHzaUp.png

Steve, I am very concerned about this. What are the chances of this coming to fruition? If it is higher than 50%, I am getting out of dodge, like tomorrow morning. Ahead of NOLA folks evacuation. What is your gut telling you?

Idk. It was kind of sudden. Gut tells me I’ll be hitting the store here in Pcola this afternoon after I leave the beach. As far as the intensity, I like 57 and NHC’s idea of a 1. Probably 30-40% it could get to a 2. As for the HWRF and 950s/Cat 3, probably the extreme ceiling and maybe 2-3%?

Thanks so much Steve! I will be watching closely and will have to bug out by late tomorrow ahead of NOLA evacuation if things turn for the worse. Appreciate your insight.

[Sean in New Orleans]

The HWRF shows an event that NOLA has never seen in the modern era. It's hard to say anything could be worse than Katrina, but NOLA would get hit by much stronger winds then they did in Katrina and the flooding from rain could rival that of Harvey's(due to how NOLA is shaped. I don't think we'll see totals quite as high, but 20-30" on the HWRF run isn't impossible). There are a lot of old buildings in NOLA and the infrastructure isn't like South Florida so being under prolonged Cat-2+ winds would be horrifying. Not to mention that you're hoping the Levees can hold too. Hopefully the HWRF is overdoing it, but I'm definitely concerned about a scenario like this.

Time to watch. I don’t see this as worse than Katrina. We could have stronger winds and rain looks to be a serious concern. But, don’t forget about hurricane protection. The most vulnerable areas on the East side of New Orleans are protected up to 32’ with surge. That’s not going to happen. The Northshore could definitely have surge issues. I’m concerned about rain. We’ll see about winds. It also could hit MS or Alabama..my eyes would certainly be wide open if I lived in Pascagoula or Mobile.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

As was the case with Katrina the poor MS coast will also get a heavy dose of Sally if we have a similar landfall. Anything east of that . . . Ms & Al.

[Blow_Hard]

18Z early guidance.

With this slowing down and bending north and east at landfall I am getting quite concerned for flooding and tornado threat from Mississippi to NW Florida. Models showing 8 to 10 inches in NW Floridahttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200912/f6dca677e9d1bfeda6cd0f18e7823ef1.jpg

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Yeah. That was my point to Destinhurricane.

NWS Tallahassee forecast for my area is possibility of heavy rain and gusts to 25mph. I'll take that all day long...

[CrazyC83]

The HWRF shows an event that NOLA has never seen in the modern era. It's hard to say anything could be worse than Katrina, but NOLA would get hit by much stronger winds then they did in Katrina and the flooding from rain could rival that of Harvey's(due to how NOLA is shaped. I don't think we'll see totals quite as high, but 20-30" on the HWRF run isn't impossible). There are a lot of old buildings in NOLA and the infrastructure isn't like South Florida so being under prolonged Cat-2+ winds would be horrifying. Not to mention that you're hoping the Levees can hold too. Hopefully the HWRF is overdoing it, but I'm definitely concerned about a scenario like this.

Time to watch. I don’t see this as worse than Katrina. We could have stronger winds and rain looks to be a serious concern. But, don’t forget about hurricane protection. The most vulnerable areas on the East side of New Orleans are protected up to 32’ with surge. That’s not going to happen. The Northshore could definitely have surge issues. I’m concerned about rain. We’ll see about winds. It also could hit MS or Alabama..my eyes would certainly be wide open if I lived in Pascagoula or Mobile.

Evacuation would be a challenge too - the only reasonable option is north into central Mississippi, or all the way to Texas.

[Steve]

NAM 3km has 962 at 60 hours hitting SELA. It ramps it up hardcore the last 12-18 hours. Mayb it is or isn’t on to something.

[bella_may]

NAM 3km has 962 at 60 hours hitting SELA. It ramps it up hardcore the last 12-18 hours. Mayb it is or isn’t on to something.

Actually stalls just east of LA then moves into MS. But it is the NAM

Nevermind you’re right lol didn’t see the whole model

[Steve]

ICON hits Jackson Co.

[Steve]

NAM 3km has 962 at 60 hours hitting SELA. It ramps it up hardcore the last 12-18 hours. Mayb it is or isn’t on to something.

Actually stalls just east of LA then moves into MS. But it is the NAM

Nevermind you’re right lol didn’t see the whole model

3km resolution looks to cross the LA Coast. It’s bright outside so maybe I’m missing something?

[PTPatrick]

Not that we pay Attention to Hmon but through 45 hrs it is not impressed. Still only shows 1000 mb storm then.

[PTPatrick]

Hwrf weaker through 30 hrs....994 compared to 984 last run at same time.

Thru 42 substantially weaker Hwrf. Barely cat 1 V’s cat 2

[Keldeo1997]

18Z is actually has the same pressure that the 06Z run had just further West. Major still on the table this run

[Frank P]

18z HWRF lookS NOLA bound, let’s see if it plays out

[MississippiWx]

HWRF pretty much identical to 12z. HMON pretty similar as well. Have to admire their persistence of showing a rapidly intensifying storm up until landfall.

[NDG]

18z HWRF is throwing a monkey wrench to the consensus, further south and west so far with the run.