ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gums]

Salute!

Projections look a lot like Betsy, but not as big a storm.

From experience, surge on MS not as bad as Katrina or Camille due to angle. Secondly, the waterway that made for flooding in NOLA was closed after Miss K.

My uncles suffered greatly from Betsy, but I was north of town at 35,000 feet on a mission. Was listening to WWL when it went off the air, and we had a stiff headwind even 150 miles away from the eye.

Gums sends....

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone heard about the NOAA Jet doing a mission to check the ridge along the Gulf Coast and over FL?

[PTPatrick]

Feeling 1947 cane and Georges vibes More than Betsy and Katrina. Will be interested to see how models come in today.

[NDG]

the Center is moving westerly.. slighly north of west recently on radar..

sitting over water pretty much at this point lol.

https://i.ibb.co/s2t2twV/Capture.png

It looks like it is getting vertically stacked with the MLC getting caught now with the LLC, it stopped its motion westward for at least a couple of hours while they stacked.

[MGC]

More on a track like 1947 and Betsy. Both flooded the city of NO. Lets hope the recent improvements to the levee system hold back the surge. TD19 is looking improved on satellite. Would not be surprised if recon finds a TS.....MGC

[Shawee]

That angle produces a worse surge for areas near NOLA I believe. I think that's close to the worse-case angle so hopefully this doesn't get to strong.

True but it needs to get thru lake ponchatrain or just south at wnw for that to occur. Tbd

A path like Betsy in 65 took, is one of the worst cases scenario’s for Nola, just south and west of the Mississippi River at 45 degree angle

Agreed, particularly for the west bank parishes. Fortunately, we have an actual surge protection system in place now for most of the heavily populated areas. But it still can only handle so much rain before major issues occur. The Betsy-like path would also be worst precipitation as well. As Juan taught us, paths are less of a factor for rain, so lets keep this one moving.

[psyclone]

Sassy, fast moving squalls here. It's a great day to be a weather watcher. You can tell tropical mischief is within shouting distance.

[tailgater]

IMHO recon might find a partial eyewall If current organization continues

[Dean4Storms]

Strange...appears the deep convection near the center has waned for now. Warming cloud tops.

[aspen]

Strange...appears the deep convection near the center has waned for now. Warming cloud tops.

Well, it is near Dmin, and weak TCs like this are far more impacts by Dmin/max.

[3090]

Looks like on radar the MLC is beginning to track more NW. A meeting of minds if you will.

Wobble watching of a MLC, for a movement?

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like on radar the MLC is beginning to track more NW. A meeting of minds if you will.

Wobble watching of a MLC, for a movement?

Not movement but stacking.

[Aric Dunn]

the Center is moving westerly.. slighly north of west recently on radar..

sitting over water pretty much at this point lol.

https://i.ibb.co/s2t2twV/Capture.png

It looks like it is getting vertically stacked with the MLC getting caught now with the LLC, it stopped its motion westward for at least a couple of hours while they stacked.

Yeah SE side of the LLC the last 30 min very deep convection trying to wrap around as it approaches open water.

[Ian2401]

Strange...appears the deep convection near the center has waned for now. Warming cloud tops.

sun is warming cloud tops

[wxman57]

Light winds across Keys. Only significant wind is along SE peninsula.

[KimmieLa]

11am advisory has hurricane very near me Tuesday morning. What a birthday present! NHC has been very consistent with its forecast track of a landfall near LA/MS border Tuesday. Time to batten down the hatches....MGC

Path looks eerily similar to Katrina.

Katrina came in perpendicular to the coast at 90 deg, this looks more like 45-50 degrees to coast line. Huge difference in surge! At least for MS coast line

Frank, you are no nonsense, and I really appreciate that. No one needs these storms. Praying for your area. Wishing hurricane season was coming to an end. When I look at the chart with all the invests and storms, I shiver. 7 of 'em! 2020-thanks, but, no thanks!

[St0rmTh0r]

the Center is moving westerly.. slighly north of west recently on radar..

sitting over water pretty much at this point lol.

https://i.ibb.co/s2t2twV/Capture.png

It looks like it is getting vertically stacked with the MLC getting caught now with the LLC, it stopped its motion westward for at least a couple of hours while they stacked.

Yeah SE side of the LLC the last 30 min very deep convection trying to wrap around as it approaches open water.

Not good what's the shear looking like? This is going to be over water several days and I've got family in Mississippi

[St0rmTh0r]

Path looks eerily similar to Katrina.

Katrina came in perpendicular to the coast at 90 deg, this looks more like 45-50 degrees to coast line. Huge difference in surge! At least for MS coast line

Frank, you are no nonsense, and I really appreciate that. No one needs these storms. Praying for your area. Wishing hurricane season was coming to an end. When I look at the chart with all the invests and storms, I shiver. 7 of 'em! 2020-thanks, but, no thanks!

Well no one can say we haven't been warned this has been in the cards for several months. July was as big a hint as any.

[3090]

Looks like on radar the MLC is beginning to track more NW. A meeting of minds if you will.

Wobble watching of a MLC, for a movement?

Not movement but stacking.

Gotcha

[psyclone]

The keys might not be getting much wind but that developing band south of the center might really firehose them with water..