ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[Storm Battered]

Anyone know why this large area of 200mb vorticity is entraining into the circulation?
https://i.imgur.com/2hV8NSZ.gif

Because it’s 2020.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like crap this morning.

 https://twitter.com/gregpostel/status/1304784984671223809

[aspen]

Anyone know why this large area of 200mb vorticity is entraining into the circulation?
https://i.imgur.com/2hV8NSZ.gif

That must be why Paulette is struggling this morning. At least, that’s the only red flag I can see. Maybe it’s shoving dry air into the core and won’t stop until Paulette finishes cutting off that low.

[gfsperpendicular]

Anyone know why this large area of 200mb vorticity is entraining into the circulation?
https://i.imgur.com/2hV8NSZ.gif

That must be why Paulette is struggling this morning. At least, that’s the only red flag I can see. Maybe it’s shoving dry air into the core and won’t stop until Paulette finishes cutting off that low.

Either way, Paulette is not one to let herself be kept down for long. Deep convection is back near the center.

[us89]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 57.2W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[aspen]

The NHC doesn’t seem to consider the earlier degradation of Paulette’s IR appearance to be a major impediment. They still forecast a hurricane later today and a peak of 95 kt, and also mention the possibility of this being a major.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1304830396648091651

[Emmett_Brown]

Paulette starting to wind up on vis. Looking more symmetrical which hints of an eye forming. Stay safe on Bermuda.

[Buck]

This could end up being a rare direct hit to Bermuda.

[CrazyC83]

It does appear that there seems to be an eye developing. The cloud tops aren't spectacular but that could change.

[aspen]

Recon has just taken off for Paulette. It’ll help pin down the center, because the “eye” trying to form doesn’t look like it’s on top of the CoC as seen on visible imagery.

[ClarCari]

Recon has always been flying just in time to upgrade systems this year. Impeccable timing. They could very well find a hurricane when they get there. Or at least the intensity it’s at now.

[aspen]

Recon has arrived at the outskirts of Paulette and should complete its first full pass within the next half hour.

[aspen]

65-70 kt FL winds and 40-45 kt SFMR on the western part of Paulette.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure was 990 at a spot where there were 78 kt FL winds and 54 kt SFMR. That likely means we have a pressure in the low 980s.

[aspen]

983 mbar extrapolated pressure. It turns out the CoC is within the newest convective burst and not displaced as I originally thought. It also appears to be better stacked, too.

[CrazyC83]

983 mbar extrapolated pressure. It turns out the CoC is within the newest convective burst and not displaced as I originally thought. It also appears to be better stacked, too.

The wind data appear to support the current 60 kt intensity though.

[aspen]

983 mbar extrapolated pressure. It turns out the CoC is within the newest convective burst and not displaced as I originally thought. It also appears to be better stacked, too.

The wind data appear to support the current 60 kt intensity though.

Yeah I don’t see enough to upgrade Paulette to 65 kt just yet. FL and SFMR do average out close to 60 kt. However, it’s possible Paulette could strengthen into a hurricane during the next few hours.

[ClarCari]

Some data suggests the shear may have caused some displacement but they may still find enough to support a hurricane later in this flight.
When the shear lets up completely this thing will really start to bottom.

[us89]

Dropsonde from the last pass measured a surface pressure of 982 mb with a 10 kt wind - suggesting a 981 mb central pressure.