ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#501 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:38 pm

hurricanehunter69 wrote:Katrina was a depression for four advisories before it was upgraded to a storm. She became a hurricane on advisory number nine and still expected to only top out at 80 mph, while spending only 7 hours over land. It only took 3 advisories after Katrina re-emerged in the eastern gulf for the wording to start to become ominous and official forecasting of a major hurricane.


If this one stays on the southern side of the track it will hit that little spot that Katrina blew up in. I know it was pretty hot when Laura came through but she missed it to the west.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#502 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:39 pm

boca wrote:Most of Broward and Palm Beach county will get a few showers while Dade gets deluged.


It probably won’t seem much different than any other afternoon north of Dade.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#503 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:44 pm

radar is looking more fun..
3 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#504 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:49 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:radar is looking more fun..


Are you to explain why every other storm has been very top heavy this year but this one seems to have all of the storms to the south of the center? Is it just because it isn’t organized yet?
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#505 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:52 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:radar is looking more fun..


Are you to explain why every other storm has been very top heavy this year but this one seems to have all of the storms to the south of the center? Is it just because it isn’t organized yet?


there has been a little bit of northerly shear.
2 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#506 Postby wx98 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:57 pm

Little bowling ball showing up on radar heading toward Homestead and the KAMX radar site.
2 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#507 Postby blp » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:11 pm

wx98 wrote:Little bowling ball showing up on radar heading toward Homestead and the KAMX radar site.


Seems to me like a mesocyclone. Maybe this one will dissipate once over land because it seems to be moving too fast per the progged models. Maybe the MLC further east will take over after this comes ashore and try to redevelop another llc.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#508 Postby drezee » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:14 pm

0 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#509 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:17 pm

2 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneAndre2008
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 335
Age: 27
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:51 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#510 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:19 pm

1 likes   
Cindy(2005), Katrina(2005), Rita(2005), Erin(2007), Isaac(2012)

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#511 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:19 pm



Is this guy a pro met? I see lots of his twitter posts, but always wondered if he was a Met or just a weather nut like us? :)
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#512 Postby blp » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:36 pm

This is what I see. The LLC or mesovortex will come ashore quickly and weaken and then the MLC will start to take over and work its way down.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

Image
Last edited by blp on Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9621
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#513 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:37 pm

Quick aside - here's a shot of one of one of the Pensacola storms this evening with the first low. It's a panoramic looking east toward the Airport.

Image
7 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#514 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:39 pm



Glad to see Derek Ortt on board with throwing out global models with their intensity forecast for TD 19.
1 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#515 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:40 pm

pretty good swath of 50+ mph winds at 1500 feet.
3 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#516 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:49 pm

Watch out Key Biscayne! Then Kendall.

Image
3 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9155
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#517 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:51 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:pretty good swath of 50+ mph winds at 1500 feet.



This thing is a tropical storm within my opinion.
Image
1 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#518 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:51 pm

Steve wrote:Quick aside - here's a shot of one of one of the Pensacola storms this evening with the first low. It's a panoramic looking east toward the Airport.

https://i.imgur.com/pYQzdch.jpg




Excellent picture Steve!! The more I see pictures like this, the more I realize I have to get out of California and move to a place that has Thunderstorms... California's weather is soooooo Boring. I like the mountains too, so I'll probably settle on Colorado Springs since i was actually born in Colorado...
2 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#519 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:55 pm

about a 3 miles swath of 60mph at 1000 feet now.. technically this should be a TS right now.
5 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Nuno
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 597
Joined: Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:35 am
Location: Coral Gables, FL

Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#520 Postby Nuno » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:04 am

1007 mb in Miami now.
1 likes   
Andrew (1992), Irene (1999), Frances (2004), Katrina (2005), Wilma (2005), Fay (2008), Irma (2017), Eta (2020), Ian (2022)


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests