ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Is it possible that farther south in the short term could mean more north and east in long term because stronger?

[RL3AO]

The rain threat from this is pretty worrying. Freshwater flooding is one of the hurricane impacts that people like to overlook. But it can be scary so often.

[TheStormExpert]

The rain threat from this is pretty worrying. Freshwater flooding is one of the hurricane impacts that people like to overlook. But it can be scary so often.

It seems slowly moving TC’s are becoming more common these days due to climate change. Take Harvey, Florence, Lane (Hawaii), and Dorian for example. And these all happened within the past few seasons.

[ElectricStorm]

The rain threat from this is pretty worrying. Freshwater flooding is one of the hurricane impacts that people like to overlook. But it can be scary so often.

It seems slowly moving TC’s are becoming more common these days due to climate change. Take Harvey, Florence, Lane (Hawaii), and Dorian for example. And these all happened within the past few seasons.

And Barry too. Luckily the majority of his heavy rains stayed offshore

[ColdMiser123]

The rain threat from this is pretty worrying. Freshwater flooding is one of the hurricane impacts that people like to overlook. But it can be scary so often.

It seems slowly moving TC’s are becoming more common these days due to climate change. Take Harvey, Florence, Lane (Hawaii), and Dorian for example. And these all happened within the past few seasons.

That's part of a longer term trend, according to Kossin 2018.

[gatorcane]

There is a reason why the global models are not really doing much until it gets to the EGOM. Take a look at the small ULL to the north off the coast of SC spinning. It has been inducing just enough shear from the NW to keep this in check:

[shiny-pebble]

The MLC is going pretty far south it seems. Like, it looks like it's almost going SW?! I'm an amateur so correct me if I'm wrong...

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[ElectricStorm]

There is a reason why the global models are not really doing much until it gets to the EGOM. Take a look at the small ULL to the north off the coast of SC spinning. It has been inducing just enough shear from the NW to keep this in check:

https://i.postimg.cc/Hk4N48p5/98-BC8058-B3-EF-475-E-9-E3-A-C3-DF50-F12-E6-B.gif

I'm obviously no expert so I may be way off here but is there perhaps a chance that ULL shears the convection a little south to where the LLC reforms to the South back under the convection, thus giving it more time in the gulf?

[Nimbus]

On radar imagery this evening, I'm noticing that #TD19's mid-level center seems to be diving SW rather than moving due west

I think the LLC is under the new burst of convection further north, surface winds are from ~30 degrees at fwyf1 and pressure down below 1009 mb.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=fwyf1

Edit again: to add there is a ship with a slightly lower surface pressure out in the gulf past Key West but the surface winds from the NNE at Fowey rock and the new burst of convection are a little more compelling.

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1304563596580528129?s=20

mentioned that a couple of hours ago..

[gatorcane]

There is a reason why the global models are not really doing much until it gets to the EGOM. Take a look at the small ULL to the north off the coast of SC spinning. It has been inducing just enough shear from the NW to keep this in check:

https://i.postimg.cc/Hk4N48p5/98-BC8058-B3-EF-475-E-9-E3-A-C3-DF50-F12-E6-B.gif

I'm obviously no expert so I may be way off here but is there perhaps a chance that ULL shears the convection a little south to where the LLC reforms to the South back under the convection, thus giving it more time in the gulf?

It’s possible the center may relocate following the convection. When a system is in its seminal phase, anything is possible.

[ElectricStorm]

There is a reason why the global models are not really doing much until it gets to the EGOM. Take a look at the small ULL to the north off the coast of SC spinning. It has been inducing just enough shear from the NW to keep this in check:

https://i.postimg.cc/Hk4N48p5/98-BC8058-B3-EF-475-E-9-E3-A-C3-DF50-F12-E6-B.gif

I'm obviously no expert so I may be way off here but is there perhaps a chance that ULL shears the convection a little south to where the LLC reforms to the South back under the convection, thus giving it more time in the gulf?

It’s possible the center may relocate following the convection. When a system is in its seminal phase, anything is possible.

Hopefully it doesn't happen but it would be classic 2020 if that ULL contributed to a south center Reformation to allow it more time over water

[ConvergenceZone]

Not sure this will make TS strength by tonight due to it trying to figure out where the established center will be. But I do think it will hit TS by tomorrow afternoon at the latest as it clears Florida

[boca]

I’m thinking that the rain will miss us to the south even in Broward county. This looks like a Florida Keys storm.

[robbielyn]

Levi Cowan’s video is out check out his take on TD#19!

[Kazmit]

The rain threat from this is pretty worrying. Freshwater flooding is one of the hurricane impacts that people like to overlook. But it can be scary so often.

It seems slowly moving TC’s are becoming more common these days due to climate change. Take Harvey, Florence, Lane (Hawaii), and Dorian for example. And these all happened within the past few seasons.

You may be right, I saw this article yesterday.
https://www.popsci.com/story/environment/hurricane-stall-danger/

[DucaCane]

Levi Cowan’s video is out check out his take on TD#19!

Do you have a link to his video?

[Bimms]

I’m thinking that the rain will miss us to the south even in Broward county. This looks like a Florida Keys storm.

Doubt that, I'm thinking it will be a rain event for Broward and Dade. It's raining here in Broward as I type this.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There is a reason why the global models are not really doing much until it gets to the EGOM. Take a look at the small ULL to the north off the coast of SC spinning. It has been inducing just enough shear from the NW to keep this in check:

https://i.postimg.cc/Hk4N48p5/98-BC8058-B3-EF-475-E-9-E3-A-C3-DF50-F12-E6-B.gif

10 knot shear really isn't much.

Global models aren't doing much because they're failing to resolve the system correctly, just like how they completely dropped the ball on Hanna.

[psyclone]

with weak steering this could well be a rain bomb event...like Danny 1997... minimal cane/massive rain induced flooding. heavy rain is also likely to focus on the western side of the florida peninsula with good convergence as the system moves into the gulf.