ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the center is more NNW of the MLC on radar. some northerly shear looks to have slightly separated it.

looks like its also rotating around so could be multiple Vorts.

[SoupBone]

Even Texas isn't out of play. The ridge should be stout over the South for much of the week next week. It probably has until Sunday to make the connection.

Texas just had a big cold front come thru, doesn’t that usually mean chances go way down?

That front didn't even make down to Houston, so shouldn't have that much effect on this system that will be on the Northern Gulf Coast in 4 to 5 days.

That question was related to his post that Texas is in play.

[johngaltfla]

Yeah.

More rain.

Just what we need.

[Nuno]

But guys, this storm won't produce that much ACE! Its not a CV long tracker, season bust... /sarcasm

These hot towers will help this consolidate. I really dont think Florida will slow this down at all, I'm expecting a minimal TS here tonight. I hope the Gulf is keeping a close watch on this

[hurricanehunter69]

For those who do not know....there is a lag time when making mimic-tpw observations. But yep..we can clearly observe the remarkable moist environment this thing has to take advantage of and the spin has definitely begun. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[edu2703]

Hot towers firing up

[Aric Dunn]

at the very least there is a vort east of miami...

might be multiple vorts in there though. the one east of miami will be onshore in a couple of hours. so likely is rotating around. just have to wait and see.

[eastcoastFL]

[GCANE]

Looks like the center is more NNW of the MLC on radar. some northerly shear looks to have slightly separated it.

looks like its also rotating around so could be multiple Vorts.

Still a PV Streamer to its NW.
Getting weaker though.
Convection coming down from N FL may take it out.
Will likely stack everything once it does.

[eastcoastFL]

High CAPE air now being entrained from the north.
Spinning up quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/AD00VZ1.png

Looks like lots of high CAPE over and around Florida as well

[cfisher]

shear will tug the LLC south of track

[eastcoastFL]

[GCANE]

Once the PVS gets taken out, this would setup the deadly PV Ring which creates ideal ventilation conditions.
We could see rapid intensification when the PVS goes poof.

[eastcoastFL]

Hwrf has a TS before landfall also looks like it stays offshore for another 12-15 hours. Loses nothing over Florida and quickly starts to wrap up in the gulf.

[SFLcane]

Might go through the Florida straits.

[Nuno]

Might go through the Florida straits.

Maybe, you could see the rotation already looking like it'll shift southwards. I'm worried about this thing's forward speed looking like its slowing

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I don't see much stopping this one from wrapping up into at least a Cat 1 before final landfall, to be honest.

[NDG]

Bimini's pressure down to 1007 mb, light easterly winds.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://i.postimg.cc/P54h14h2/42820-D43-4-CD7-45-BD-A4-F7-E7418-F22-E61-F.gif

Impressive how much it drops before SFL landfall.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm expecting this to roll through the straits.