ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Really can we get anymore lucky in SFL... Amazing

Hopefully this is our storm for the year

[DestinHurricane]

Just keep in mind.. the stronger this gets the more northerly it will likely turn. deep steering in a couple days should be north..

Stronger sooner yes. But if it holds steady for 48 hours, it would be stuck moving west in the Gulf with a deep layer of ventilation to its north.

Doubt it holds steady. Might be over everglades for 12 hours but that's all that is holding it back.

[TheStormExpert]

Really can we get anymore lucky in SFL... Amazing

Yes just needed another 24 hours over water and wow could have been much more of an issue here. The luck does continue. But this would be the first landfalling TC from the east since 2005 right?

No, Gordon in 2018.

[eastcoastFL]

Pretty breezy and gusty from time to time up this way in palm city. Nice change of weather for now.

[SFLcane]

So it’s roughly 8-10 hrs before it moves into onshore care to share intensity?

I say 50 mph.

[GCANE]

Cold pooling as indicated by rapid drop in CAPE for the tower west of Andros.
Clear indication this is now self sustaining.
Likely will see a rapid warm core develop above the cold pool.

[eastcoastFL]

Just keep in mind.. the stronger this gets the more northerly it will likely turn. deep steering in a couple days should be north..

Stronger sooner yes. But if it holds steady for 48 hours, it would be stuck moving west in the Gulf with a deep layer of ventilation to its north.

Doubt it holds steady. Might be over everglades for 12 hours but that's all that is holding it back.

It May gain Strength over the glades. It’s not unheard of.

[TheStormExpert]

Yep our hurricane luck continues here in SE Florida! Must be all that hurricane repellent Steve Weagle sprays.

[Ian2401]

any chance this heads north sooner towards panhandle area? not familiar with the steering pattern at play here

[chaser1]

I wouldn’t rule out one bit yet another hurricane hit in the U.S. for the northern Gulf Coast next week. Current landfall intensity is just under Cat.1 threshold.

Add this to the list of storms the global models failed miserably at forecasting.

But the NAM nailed it (short range anyway) Go figure.

[NDG]

So.... What are the shear forecasts for the Northern Gulf in the next 3-4 days?

Latest SHIPS showed SW shear near 20 knots at landfall, but like mentioned in the NHC forecast discussion, too early to tell and we have seen that change before.

[chaser1]

Really can we get anymore lucky in SFL... Amazing

Hopefully this is our storm for the year

I wouldn't place a big bet on that

[CrazyC83]

And this storm follows the pattern this season of TC's forming close to the US and of the models once again failing in picking up the genesis. Hopefully this does not pull a Katrina even though the setup is almost identical.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

The difference is the theme this year has been storms RIing up until landfall rather than weaken like Katrina. If that happens with here with the forecasted track, Sally may be a name remembered for many years unfortunately

Not to mention it would likely go left of the cone if it misses the connection, meaning a second hit on places already devastated by Laura as well. However, if it does keep strengthening in the short term, the chances of making the connection increase.

[SFLcane]

So it’s roughly 8-10 hrs before it moves into onshore care to share intensity?

I say 50 mph.

[DestinHurricane]

So it’s roughly 8-10 hrs before it moves into onshore care to share intensity?

I say 50 mph.

45mph

[Jr0d]

I think a WSW track in the next 12-24 hours is possible. This would keep in over water and just South of the tip of Florida. We have ssen that WSW dive a few times in that area with a similar set up. Katrina is one that went WSW unexpectedly before hitting Florida.

Even on radar there appears to be some South to the forward motion, however that maybe misleading given the storm is still trying to form a well defined LLC.

[ElectricStorm]

And this storm follows the pattern this season of TC's forming close to the US and of the models once again failing in picking up the genesis. Hopefully this does not pull a Katrina even though the setup is almost identical.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

The difference is the theme this year has been storms RIing up until landfall rather than weaken like Katrina. If that happens with here with the forecasted track, Sally may be a name remembered for many years unfortunately

Not to mention it would likely go left of the cone if it misses the connection, meaning a second hit on places already devastated by Laura as well. However, if it does keep strengthening in the short term, the chances of making the connection increase.

But of it turns too early and goes into FL panhandle it'll hit the areas still recovering from Michael. Pretty much a lose-lose situation

[SunnyThoughts]

Don't like the vibes from this at all. At least everyone has the weekend to get ready on the northern gulf coast. You guys in south Fla take care..hopefully not enough time for it to ramp up much before landfall there.

[PTrackerLA]

This is almost unreal, but let's be honest it has looked suspicious since last night. With the NHC already throwing out the hurricane term the northern Gulf coast has to watch this very closely.

[EquusStorm]

Well that uh, escalated fast. We're in the running for the September named storm record at this pace; this will be five, the African wave will be six, and the record is eight... and it's just the 11th.