Disturbance over The Bahamas (Is Invest 96L)

[Nimbus]

From I understand though they don't expect this to actually form until it gets into the GoM, what do other models show?

The landmass of Florida is flat but historically waves often start rotating as they cross, its speculation on my part.
Not a good setup without shear in the forecast.

[Blow_Hard]

From I understand though they don't expect this to actually form until it gets into the GoM, what do other models show?

I can imagine you'd be a little antsy seeing how you're still dealing with the effects from Laura and this currently looks to be more of a North Central GOM threat. IMO, it's looking like it could close off before ever reaching FL and then re-generate once it gets back in to the GOM. It probably won't have time to get to MH status unless it can make it to the WGOM. Obviously you don't want to see any type of TC coming to your area so I'd just keep a close eye on it from here on out.

BTW, I hope y'all are doing OK over there in Cajun Country...

[jlauderdal]

Convection increasing a bit.

https://i.imgur.com/rM7ywsM.gif

Looks pretty good on IR and the structure is ok, NHC amping it to 40 should be a real concern for the Upper gulf coast....the genny is staying idle for this one and resting up for the next 6 weeks...don't forget Florida, October is climatologically our month.

[Blinhart]

From I understand though they don't expect this to actually form until it gets into the GoM, what do other models show?

I can imagine you'd be a little antsy seeing how you're still dealing with the effects from Laura and this currently looks to be more of a North Central GOM threat. IMO, it's looking like it could close off before ever reaching FL and then re-generate once it gets back in to the GOM. It probably won't have time to get to MH status unless it can make it to the WGOM. Obviously you don't want to see any type of TC coming to your area so I'd just keep a close eye on it from here on out.

BTW, I hope y'all are doing OK over there in Cajun Country...

Where I live is good, but over by Lake Charles (which is only 50 miles away) there is still a lot of people without water and power.

You are right I don't want to see any system to come to North Central GoM Coast.

[Hammy]

Is this the one the CMC is developing off and on in the GoM in several days?

[NDG]

Is this the one the CMC is developing off and on in the GoM in several days?

No, the CMC has been developing either the current vorticity already in the GOM or from a vorticity coming from the EPAC.
But on last night's CMC's ensembles they liked developing this disturbance with a couple of them into a hurricane.

[Stormcenter]

To be honest it’s all confusing with so many things
going on at once. That being said, this system concerns
me the most at the moment. IMO

[Emmett_Brown]

Looking more circular, but looking at vis, no evidence of W winds yet

[FireRat]

These homegrown thingys can be the most dangerous, gotta definitely watch this system closely justin case.
IF it begins organizing quickly as it approaches the bathwater off FL, this could become big trouble for the GOM imo. Risky time of year, not to mention the low shear.

[blacktopninja]

New Vorticity Maps. Hot off the Press. It's consolidating to the Northeast of the Bahamas.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

To be honest it’s all confusing with so many things
going on at once. That being said, this system concerns
me the most at the moment. IMO

Yeah especially since so many notorious storms have formed right there and the 5 day forecast the nhc has shows it going into the gulf in Katrinas exact path. Eastern bahamas across tip of florida into the gulf and right up to sela/miss. 2020 does not need to be the year of a Katrina sequel.

[La Breeze]

From I understand though they don't expect this to actually form until it gets into the GoM, what do other models show?

I can imagine you'd be a little antsy seeing how you're still dealing with the effects from Laura and this currently looks to be more of a North Central GOM threat. IMO, it's looking like it could close off before ever reaching FL and then re-generate once it gets back in to the GOM. It probably won't have time to get to MH status unless it can make it to the WGOM. Obviously you don't want to see any type of TC coming to your area so I'd just keep a close eye on it from here on out.

BTW, I hope y'all are doing OK over there in Cajun Country...

Yes, antsy is a good adjective for now - watching the GOM closely and doing repairs and cleaning from Laura. We're rebuilding and doing OK here in Cajun Country. Thanks for the concern.

[La Breeze]

These homegrown thingys can be the most dangerous, gotta definitely watch this system closely justin case.
IF it begins organizing quickly as it approaches the bathwater off FL, this could become big trouble for the GOM imo. Risky time of year, not to mention the low shear.

Is low shear expected to continue throughout the northern GOM into next week?

[Blow_Hard]

From I understand though they don't expect this to actually form until it gets into the GoM, what do other models show?

I can imagine you'd be a little antsy seeing how you're still dealing with the effects from Laura and this currently looks to be more of a North Central GOM threat. IMO, it's looking like it could close off before ever reaching FL and then re-generate once it gets back in to the GOM. It probably won't have time to get to MH status unless it can make it to the WGOM. Obviously you don't want to see any type of TC coming to your area so I'd just keep a close eye on it from here on out.

BTW, I hope y'all are doing OK over there in Cajun Country...

Yes, antsy is a good adjective for now - watching the GOM closely and doing repairs and cleaning from Laura. We're rebuilding and doing OK here in Cajun Country. Thanks for the concern.

Yeah...I feel your pain. There is still plenty of cleanup going on over here and we're 2 years removed from Michael...

[Hammy]

Looking more circular, but looking at vis, no evidence of W winds yet

Looking similar to Hanna when it's disturbance was in the Bahamas (if not better)--and if the favorable conditions continue this is quite worrying given how quickly Hanna spun up during July followed by Laura's explosive intensification.

[Jr0d]

Good call OP.

I will be keep the board updates as the wave goes over me in Key West this weekend.

[hurricanehunter69]

These homegrown thingys can be the most dangerous, gotta definitely watch this system closely justin case.
IF it begins organizing quickly as it approaches the bathwater off FL, this could become big trouble for the GOM imo. Risky time of year, not to mention the low shear.

Is low shear expected to continue throughout the northern GOM into next week?

Oh Boy....I'm seeing a (near) ideal environment evolving in the gulf. Especially with regards to expected shear. I fear we have a sleeper storm evolving here ladies and gentlemen. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[jlauderdal]

These homegrown thingys can be the most dangerous, gotta definitely watch this system closely justin case.
IF it begins organizing quickly as it approaches the bathwater off FL, this could become big trouble for the GOM imo. Risky time of year, not to mention the low shear.

Is low shear expected to continue throughout the northern GOM into next week?

Oh Boy....I'm seeing a (near) ideal environment evolving in the gulf. Especially with regards to expected shear. I fear we have a sleeper storm evolving here ladies and gentlemen. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

no such thing as a sleeper storm here...we get 10 pages of posts off a thunderstorm and minimal model support

[toad strangler]

Is low shear expected to continue throughout the northern GOM into next week?

Oh Boy....I'm seeing a (near) ideal environment evolving in the gulf. Especially with regards to expected shear. I fear we have a sleeper storm evolving here ladies and gentlemen. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

no such thing as a sleeper storm here...we get 10 pages of posts off a thunderstorm and minimal model support

I think the correct term to use would be "Home Grown"

[aspen]

18z GFS has a weak TC form this in the eastern/northern Gulf.