Disturbance over The Bahamas (Is Invest 96L)

[NDG]

I don't like how models are showing this stick around for a while in the Gulf. Definitely raises a few eyebrows, since SSTs have just about completely recovered since Laura and we've seen RI twice in the Gulf this year, one of which (Hanna) that was horribly predicted by the globals.

Even if SSTs have fully recovered, the sub-surface waters largely have not. Note especially the large cool wake north of the Yucatan Channel:

https://i.imgur.com/GLgFBNs.gif

If this were to intensify in the GOM, it would upwell substantially cooler water relatively quickly.

Deep warm waters are only good for MHs that stall over the same area. Shallow warm SSTs like in the middle of the EPAC are more than enough to support a moving MH or for a MH to develop on top them.

[boca]

This could develop in the Bahamas before reaching the coast of Florida it has the look.

[TheStormExpert]

You do have to wonder if this could snag the name Sally before the wave that just emerged Africa?

That would mean major hurricane Teddy would be on its way. Imagine a monstrous long tracking Cat 4/5 hurricane named Teddy. You can’t get much more of a juxtaposition than that.

That’s fine with me! I like the name Teddy better than Sally anyways.

[northjaxpro]

I am wondering when NHC will tag this area an invest. I have to believe with how this disturbance is coming together, this will be tagged fairly soon.

[sma10]

I am wondering when NHC will tag this area an invest. I have to believe with how this disturbance is coming together, this will be tagged fairly soon.

Especially considering they tend to pull the trigger on these kind of things quicker when they are closer to land

[LarryWx]

Is there a closed surface circ with this? If there is, I don’t see it on the visible sat loop. At least for 94L, there was a persistent low level swirl for a good number of days that Aric first pointed out.
If there is a definitive LLC, would someone please say exactly where it is? Thank you.

[gfsperpendicular]

Is there a closed surface circ with this? If there is, I don’t see it on the visible sat loop. At least for 94L, there was a persistent low level swirl for a good number of days that Aric first pointed out.
If there is a definitive LLC, would someone please say exactly where it is? Thank you.

The vorticity remains very broad with this system. This image is 6 hours old, but it does show how loose the system is.

[jlauderdal]

Good move jlauderdale but I don’t think this system will develop until after it crosses Florida but it’s good to be cautious since it has that circular look.

There is always a possibility that this system , given decent conditions, which this has right now, could spin up quickly as it drifts toward the Gulf Stream by Friday. There are very warm ssts over the Florida Straits and off the Southeast Florida Coast.

I too think it will be better positioned once in the Eastern Gulf, but hey, this is 2020. Anything goes this season seemingly.

I agree on a side note Denver it snowed today and was 101 two days ago that’s bipolar weather.

I was in colorado last week, left denver sunday it was 97 and smoke in the air...snowed two days later

[HurricaneEnzo]

Just me personally not really seeing a whole lot here. A lot of unorganized convection that hasn't really shown any signs of getting any better organized the last couple of days. Minimal vorticity in the area. Just don't really see a lot happening with this in the short term. Maybe once it gets in the Gulf will have to see how it plays out, but I don't have much confidence in this area doing much of anything other than bringing some rain to FL.

[SFLcane]

Convection increasing a bit.

[NDG]

Is there a closed surface circ with this? If there is, I don’t see it on the visible sat loop. At least for 94L, there was a persistent low level swirl for a good number of days that Aric first pointed out.
If there is a definitive LLC, would someone please say exactly where it is? Thank you.

As you may know, Invests are declared on a disturbance/TW without having a surface circulation all the time. They look for at least tight vorticity to start an approximate fix on the Invest. In this case the vorticity is still greater in the mid levels so I am sure they are waiting for a more pronounced vorticity closer to the surface to declare it an Invest, latest GFS shows it getting one by late tomorrow, but if models continue to trend towards development the mid level vorticity might be good enough.

[blacktopninja]

This could organize into a Tropical Storm over the next 2-3 days before trekking past Florida. It's pretty juiced up, and we might be in store for a light show if this thing tries to develop during the overnight hours as it crosses the East Coast of S. FL.

[Aric Dunn]

The last several hours there is definitely some borad curvature to the low level clouds and surface obs in the bahamas have swithed to the NE... a sign the surface trough is sharpening.

if it can develop a decent low level broad circ before the gulf.. then development chances go way up.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[northjaxpro]

Is there a closed surface circ with this? If there is, I don’t see it on the visible sat loop. At least for 94L, there was a persistent low level swirl for a good number of days that Aric first pointed out.
If there is a definitive LLC, would someone please say exactly where it is? Thank you.

As you may know, Invests are declared on a disturbance/TW without having a surface circulation all the time. They look for at least tight vorticity to start an approximate fix on the Invest. In this case the vorticity is still greater in the mid levels so I am sure they are waiting for a more pronounced vorticity closer to the surface to declare it an Invest, latest GFS shows it getting one by late tomorrow, but if models continue to trend towards development the mid level vorticity might be good enough.

Yes, good analysis NDG. The overall vorticity is broad, but convection is gradually building. The mid-level vort is now moving into the Central Bahamas. The 12Z GFS does close off a surface relection (1010 mb) by Saturday mornng.
I think they will tag this area either lste tonight or into tomorrow morning.

[NDG]

The last several hours there is definitely some borad curvature to the low level clouds and surface obs in the bahamas have swithed to the NE... a sign the surface trough is sharpening.

if it can develop a decent low level broad circ before the gulf.. then development chances go way up.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Is definitely starting to get that look of an organizing tropical disturbance little by little.

[gatorcane]

Saved GFS loop showing surface low developing and tracking over Florida and into the Gulf:

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a
couple of hundred miles east of the Central Bahamas is associated
with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level
winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a
couple of hundred miles east of the Central Bahamas is associated
with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level
winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Up to medium... Moving slow into the gulf. Not good

[Nimbus]

I'm late to the party on this one, wanted to see some buoy reports to see how strong this wave is.
Probably will have a circulation by the time it crosses Florida from the looks of the upper level structure.

[Blinhart]

From I understand though they don't expect this to actually form until it gets into the GoM, what do other models show?