Disturbance over The Bahamas (Is Invest 96L)

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorm is centered a
couple of hundred miles northeast of the Central Bahamas. This
system is forecast to drift westward and will likely be in the
vicinity of the Florida peninsula on Friday. Afterward, upper-level
conditions could become conducive for some development this weekend
while the system drifts west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[AnnularCane]

Wow, you guys are good at this kind of thing. I was really not sure this would actually get a circle.

[toad strangler]

Homegrown Lemon

[gatorcane]

Saved loop:

[HurricaneAndre2008]

This is about the 0/20 Gulf AOI.

[SFLcane]

Saved loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/3rLfwhj1/30-B0-BFA5-ACFB-46-AD-B3-FC-7138066-E7-EEE.gif

I could see a TS before FL. Very low shear

[northjaxpro]

Looking a bit better this evening. It would not take much convection to get this feature to manifest a surface reflection. The Mid-Level spin very evident near 26 N 73 W, Conditions are quite conducive with this feature being in a very moist environment and low wind shear.

This has the makings of a decent homegrown TC in the coming days as it drifts west.

[SFLcane]

[SconnieCane]

That much-discussed AEW better hurry up and organize upon splashdown if it wants to be Sally.

[jlauderdal]

Saved loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/3rLfwhj1/30-B0-BFA5-ACFB-46-AD-B3-FC-7138066-E7-EEE.gif

I could see a TS before FL. Very low shear

Getting gas for the genny tomorrow

[boca]

Good move jlauderdale but I don’t think this system will develop until after it crosses Florida but it’s good to be cautious since it has that circular look.

[northjaxpro]

Good move jlauderdale but I don’t think this system will develop until after it crosses Florida but it’s good to be cautious since it has that circular look.

There is always a possibility that this system , given decent conditions, which this has right now, could spin up quickly as it drifts toward the Gulf Stream by Friday. There are very warm ssts over the Florida Straits and off the Southeast Florida Coast.

I too think it will be better positioned once in the Eastern Gulf, but hey, this is 2020. Anything goes this season seemingly.

[ElectricStorm]

How good are conditions expected to be in the gulf? We don't need another storm RIing in there

[aspen]

I see a semi-decent AOI approaching Florida and set to go into the Gulf, and all I think of is Hanna. I have a bit of a suspicion this could be another significant Gulf storm that the global models miss and have to play catch-up on. Is this expected to turn into the NE Gulf coast, or will it traverse across the Gulf like Hanna, or is it too early to tell?

[boca]

Good move jlauderdale but I don’t think this system will develop until after it crosses Florida but it’s good to be cautious since it has that circular look.

There is always a possibility that this system , given decent conditions, which this has right now, could spin up quickly as it drifts toward the Gulf Stream by Friday. There are very warm ssts over the Florida Straits and off the Southeast Florida Coast.

I too think it will be better positioned once in the Eastern Gulf, but hey, this is 2020. Anything goes this season seemingly.

I agree on a side note Denver it snowed today and was 101 two days ago that’s bipolar weather.

[ClarCari]

How good are conditions expected to be in the gulf? We don't need another storm RIing in there

Besides only moderate/weak shear thru next few days in the Western Gulf by lower Texas,...Pretty Good I’m afraid :/

The shear in the Eastern Mid-Atlantic looks like it’s easing up too some. This next week could be crazy..

[GeneratorPower]

The tracking of this disturbance over the Florida peninsula might bring a lot of rain to FL. Before Irma we had a lot of rain for several weeks beforehand. I’d be curious to know if previous disturbances tracking over an area indicates general steering flow, or otherwise changes the atmosphere to make future storms more likely to follow the same path. A la Francis and Jeanne 2004, Katrina and Rita 2005, etc.

[northjaxpro]

I see a semi-decent AOI approaching Florida and set to go into the Gulf, and all I think of is Hanna. I have a bit of a suspicion this could be another significant Gulf storm that the global models miss and have to play catch-up on. Is this expected to turn into the NE Gulf coast, or will it traverse across the Gulf like Hanna, or is it too early to tell?

The early guidance like EURO anf ICON, slowly drifted the mid-level feature across Florida and into the Eastern GOM this weekend , some others like the GFS Para drifted this up into North Florida.

I am looking forward to the next model run cycles coming up for sure

[northjaxpro]

Good move jlauderdale but I don’t think this system will develop until after it crosses Florida but it’s good to be cautious since it has that circular look.

There is always a possibility that this system , given decent conditions, which this has right now, could spin up quickly as it drifts toward the Gulf Stream by Friday. There are very warm ssts over the Florida Straits and off the Southeast Florida Coast.

I too think it will be better positioned once in the Eastern Gulf, but hey, this is 2020. Anything goes this season seemingly.

I agree on a side note Denver it snowed today and was 101 two days ago that’s bipolar weather.

Exactly my point. 2020 hss been beyond unusual!

[ElectricStorm]

How good are conditions expected to be in the gulf? We don't need another storm RIing in there

Besides only moderate/weak shear thru next few days in the Western Gulf by lower Texas,...Pretty Good I’m afraid :/

The shear in the Eastern Mid-Atlantic looks like it’s easing up too some. This next week could be crazy..

Not good... Welcome to September 2020