SW of Bermuda (Is Invest 94L)

[Aric Dunn]

oddly there is a secondary circ that has developed to the south that is in a low shear environment and is currently gaining more convection. the one to the north has been sheared.

so those southern EPS tracks might be more plausible.

I see that further south spin, but is it at the surface? If that were to take over, I’d probably agree with you. OTOH, the EPS mean has a left bias in this area imo based on memory. That in itself would favor a more N track to perhaps upper SC/NC (if the southern spin doesn’t take over).

always a tough call. but as the old adage goes..

follow the convection and right now it is with the other circ to the south.

[LarryWx]

oddly there is a secondary circ that has developed to the south that is in a low shear environment and is currently gaining more convection. the one to the north has been sheared.

so those southern EPS tracks might be more plausible.

I see that further south spin, but is it at the surface? If that were to take over, I’d probably agree with you. OTOH, the EPS mean has a left bias in this area imo based on memory. That in itself would favor a more N track to perhaps upper SC/NC (if the southern spin doesn’t take over).

always a tough call. but as the old adage goes..

follow the convection and right now it is with the other circ to the south.

I looked again and am having a hard time seeing a circ to the south near that convection. I see only the naked circ that we’ve been following since late yesterday.

Meanwhile, the 12Z ICON says NC based on hour 120 and likely won’t have that stall and move back SW that the 0Z has due to a totally different setup vs the 0Z.

[Aric Dunn]

I see that further south spin, but is it at the surface? If that were to take over, I’d probably agree with you. OTOH, the EPS mean has a left bias in this area imo based on memory. That in itself would favor a more N track to perhaps upper SC/NC (if the southern spin doesn’t take over).

always a tough call. but as the old adage goes..

follow the convection and right now it is with the other circ to the south.

I looked again and am having a hard time seeing a circ to the south near that convection. I see only the naked circ that we’ve been following since late yesterday.

Meanwhile, the 12Z ICON says NC based on hour 120 and likely won’t have that stall and move back SW that the 0Z has due to a totally different setup vs the 0Z.

Here is the growing circ to the south with building convection. .. the naked circ to the north is just out of the loops. you can see the southern half of it.

[hurricanehunter69]

The race is on to see who gets named Paulette first.

[AnnularCane]

The race is on to see who gets named Paulette first.

I'd put my money on a 90/90 invest before a 10/20 non-invest, but with the tropics you never know.

[aspen]

12z ICON develops this and has it become a moderate TS as it rises up the east coast next weekend.

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure located just southeast of Bermuda is
producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[OuterBanker]

This is the first system we should be keeping an eye on. It will be heading toward the seus. Euro hints at it nearing Florida then heading up the coast. Icon has a landfalling hurricane on NC coast Sunday.

[TheStormExpert]

The ICON is a blind squirrel so I wouldn’t pay too much attention to it. Slow development if any is the most likely outcome with this area.

[ClarCari]

This has virtually no dry air and has weak shear in front of it. The big question is how much convection can it spin up before it reaches the east cost. Hopefully it isn’t too much of a surprise.....

[us89]

Might be one to watch for some distant impacts here in Atlanta, though it's looking like a cold front from the NW will probably beat it.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS is less active than the 6Z and 0Z EPS:

[LarryWx]

always a tough call. but as the old adage goes..

follow the convection and right now it is with the other circ to the south.

I looked again and am having a hard time seeing a circ to the south near that convection. I see only the naked circ that we’ve been following since late yesterday.

Meanwhile, the 12Z ICON says NC based on hour 120 and likely won’t have that stall and move back SW that the 0Z has due to a totally different setup vs the 0Z.

Here is the growing circ to the south with building convection. .. the naked circ to the north is just out of the loops. you can see the southern half of it.

https://i.ibb.co/mBzvVr1/9999.gif

Looking at the latest vis loops tells me that that northern naked swirl is likely still the main LLC. I'm not seeing much of anything near that more southern convection. To me, if anything, this system looks no more developed than 24 hours ago and perhaps is weaker being that 24 hours ago had convection surrounding that N LLC. I'm not calling it dead or saying it won't develop later as nobody knows.

[Aric Dunn]

I looked again and am having a hard time seeing a circ to the south near that convection. I see only the naked circ that we’ve been following since late yesterday.

Meanwhile, the 12Z ICON says NC based on hour 120 and likely won’t have that stall and move back SW that the 0Z has due to a totally different setup vs the 0Z.

Here is the growing circ to the south with building convection. .. the naked circ to the north is just out of the loops. you can see the southern half of it.

https://i.ibb.co/mBzvVr1/9999.gif

Looking at the latest vis loops tells me that that northern naked swirl is likely still the main LLC. I'm not seeing much of anything near that more southern convection. To me, if anything, this system looks no more developed than 24 hours ago and perhaps is weaker being that 24 hours ago had convection surrounding that N LLC. I'm not calling it dead or saying it won't develop later as nobody knows.

Yeah shear is keeping it in check for now.

[LarryWx]

This evening this remains sheared with a mainly naked center now almost due S of Bermuda and moving WSW.

Here is the 18Z EPS through the end of the run. Similar to the 12Z, it isn't as active off the SE coast as the 0Z/6Z. The average track off the SE coast is further south, centered on N FL. There is more Gulf activity than previous runs from members moving over FL:

[Aric Dunn]

00z Icon

[CrazyC83]

Still probably worth calling this 94L so we can get better data out of this - it's too close to land for comfort.

[northjaxpro]

ICON sticking strong to development over the past several run cycles now. Keeping a wsry eye on it. NHC still has it atv3p% in 5 days.

NHC probably are awaiting to see if more models are jumping on development as well before giving it a invest tag.

[northjaxpro]

Still probably worth calling this 94L so we can get better data out of this - it's too close to land for comfort.

Yeah it is if it goes on to develop like the ICON keeps showing.

[Aric Dunn]

ICON sticking strong to development over the past several run cycles now. Keeping a wsry eye on it. NHC still has it atv3p% in 5 days.

NHC probably are awaiting to see if more models are jumping on development as well before giving it a invest tag.

probably waiting on some decent convection.. Looks like shear should decrease starting tomorrow afternoon.