SW of Bermuda (Is Invest 94L)

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SW of Bermuda (Is Invest 94L)

#1 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:56 pm

Low has developed SE of Bermuda that the models have been hinting at for a few days.

Appears the models something right for once.

GFS,EURO, ICON all take it W to WSW and then Somewhere near the Carolinas.

COnvection starting to look more tropical this afternoon and definitely needs to be watched.

Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 07, 2020 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#2 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:14 pm

Image
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#3 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:20 pm

Nice convective burst occurring near the naked vort at this time. Shear also looks rather decent currently in that area southeast of Bermuda. This definitely has an window to possibly develop in the next few days. It is definitely something to watch.
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#4 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:23 pm

Hey Aric,

Given the tiny nature of this system and the global models inability to "see" these types of systems, I think you are spot on. It is worth a watch. Good catch.
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#5 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:27 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:Hey Aric,

Given the tiny nature of this system and the global models inability to "see" these types of systems, I think you are spot on. It is worth a watch. Good catch.


Yeppers..

the shear fact the models are showing something at all is interesting.

this convective burst looks to really be tightening up the llc.
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#6 Postby ClarCari » Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:36 pm

Just in time for the 8PM TWO perhaps?..?

The subtropics have been trying to spin up everything they can this season..they won’t even let Omar die lol
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#7 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:54 pm

Good catch. This is related to the JB named ridge over troubled waters homegrown pattern. The Euro and ICON have been all over this although they have mainly had this remain weak other than one Euro run. Currently, this in whatever form appears to be destined for the SE coast, most likely around late Wed to Thu.
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#8 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 05, 2020 4:58 pm

LarryWx wrote:Good catch. This is related to the JB named ridge over troubled waters homegrown pattern. The Euro and ICON have been all over this although they have mainly had this remain weak other than one Euro run. Currently, this in whatever form appears to be destined for the SE coast, most likely around late Wed to Thu.



Yeah,

cant really rely on models and genesis this year.. lol but the fact they are showing a little something is more than what they were showing for Nana lol
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#9 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:49 pm

Coming along.

sustained convection now for 8 hours.

closed circ and winds around 30kts.

couple wind barbs at 35kts. but its scat sat..

Image
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#10 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:05 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Coming along.

sustained convection now for 8 hours.

closed circ and winds around 30kts.

couple wind barbs at 35kts. but its scat sat..

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/scasa_20200905_23_39_flag.png


Aric,
It looks like you posted the wrong scat sat.
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#11 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 05, 2020 9:12 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Coming along.

sustained convection now for 8 hours.

closed circ and winds around 30kts.

couple wind barbs at 35kts. but its scat sat..

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/scasa_20200905_23_39_flag.png


Aric,
It looks like you posted the wrong scat sat.


ooops.

here you go.

Image
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#12 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:27 pm

ASCAT B

also closed and circular with

30kt winds and one 35kt wind barb in there it looks like.

If convection maintains over night we might see a TD/TS tomorrow.

or STS if they think its attached to some invisible trough.

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Re: SE of Bermuda

#13 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 05, 2020 10:55 pm

ICON.

Image
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#14 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 05, 2020 11:19 pm



That’s one of the most active ICON runs, yet, especially at the end when it stalls just offshore ILM due to a new strong NE US blocking high and loops back SW with some strengthening. This run has “ridge over troubled water” written all over it.
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#15 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 06, 2020 12:16 am

Every model takes this to the east coast, may need to watch this from Florida to New England and Atlantic Canada in case the shear relaxes.

As of right now it looks like a sheared tropical cyclone in the same vain as Omar, it’s under 40kts of shear but seems to move into a better environment in the next day or 2 so that’s when we’ll see if this becomes something more or is just a weak sheared tropical cyclone
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#16 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Sep 06, 2020 1:02 am

The track would look eerily similar to Beryl 2012 on that ICON run
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#17 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 06, 2020 3:20 am

northjaxpro wrote:The track would look eerily similar to Beryl 2012 on that ICON run


0Z EPS: most active EPS yet with quite a few that may be a TD and several that look like a TS with the coast of all of the SE states FL-NC directly affected depending on the member.

Also, keep in mind that if this ever becomes a significant system, it could drastically change the path of 92L and the other systems as appeared to have happened on this EPS run.

This map is way out at hour 144...we may be watching this feature all week due to very slow movement:

Image
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 06, 2020 6:36 am

8 AM TWO:

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive
for development during the next several days while this system
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#19 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 06, 2020 9:58 am

oddly there is a secondary circ that has developed to the south that is in a low shear environment and is currently gaining more convection. the one to the north has been sheared.

so those southern EPS tracks might be more plausible.
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Re: SE of Bermuda

#20 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 06, 2020 10:12 am

Aric Dunn wrote:oddly there is a secondary circ that has developed to the south that is in a low shear environment and is currently gaining more convection. the one to the north has been sheared.

so those southern EPS tracks might be more plausible.


I see that further south spin, but is it at the surface? If that were to take over, I’d probably agree with you. OTOH, the EPS mean has a left bias in this area imo based on memory. That in itself would favor a more N track to perhaps upper SC/NC (if the southern spin doesn’t take over).
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