2020 EPAC Season

[TheStormExpert]

Models don’t have much in the EPAC for a while. You would think the models would show a more active Atlantic. Interesting how both the Atlantic and the EPAC were active at the same time just a week or so back. Sometimes that happens.

Both the Atlantic and the East Pacific being active is very common in mid-late August and onwards.

[Yellow Evan]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave. Any development of this system
while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the next several days
is expected to be slow to occur due to marginal upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the season is over. Will not even compare to 2016 or 2017.

[storminabox]

Looks like the season is over. Will not even compare to 2016 or 2017.

What a pathetic season. The basin is completely free of convection at this point. We may have 3-4 more weak systems and maybe one more late season surprise, but it’s been pretty pitiful overall.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the season is over. Will not even compare to 2016 or 2017.

With 14 TD’s/9 NS’s/3 H’s/2 MH’s. Seems a little too seem to be calling quits in my opinion.

[Darvince]

What? This isn't 2010, the niña is much weaker, there's still a month left for storm opportunities. The current convective state is extremely suppressed over EPAC, and that's likely not going to take more than a month to change. There are still opportunities in late September and October, the MJO could return, etc... 20 more ACE this year isn't impossible imo. A third major isn't impossible either.

[ClarCari]

It’s more of a joke that the season’s cancelled here but honestly look around. You got 3 solid and, dare I say, lucky hurricanes and the rest of the storms have been a laughable mess. There’s no in-between in this season. The atlantic is at least producing impressively fighting tropical storms even in it’s weaker systems. The EPAC is just choking on the Atlantic’s blood this year

[Darvince]

Take a look at the amazing 2003 EPAC season

[Kingarabian]

2010 was the worst.

[al78]

2010 was the worst.

Even that year had a cat 5 (Celia), which I remember the models persistently didn't forecast to intensity despite apparently favourable condition.

[shiny-pebble]

What are the quietest EPAC Septembers on record?? I'm wondering if 2020 could get on that list....

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[bob rulz]

What are the quietest EPAC Septembers on record?? I'm wondering if 2020 could get on that list....

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

The record low is 1.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_P ... _per_month

With Karina around the corner, that will make 2 by the middle of the month.

This Pacific season has been slow, but I wouldn't say that it's a historically slow season. Maybe if nothing forms after this, but that seems unlikely.

[CyclonicFury]

Looks like the EPAC is on track for its first hurricane-free September since 2010.

[gatorcane]

Saved image. Looks like the GFS really likes the EPAC:

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of
the southwest coast of Mexico early next week. Some gradual
development will be possible thereafter while the system moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to form south or southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Some gradual
development will be possible through the middle of next week and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261110
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 26 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well south or southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days. Some gradual
development will be possible thereafter and a tropical depression
could form by late next week while the system moves generally
west-northwestward farther from land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 27 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well south or southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a day or two. Some gradual
development is expected thereafter and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the end of the week while the system moves
generally west-northwestward farther from land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Yellow Evan]

A small area of low pressure has formed within an elongated region
of disturbed weather, a few hundred miles south of the southwestern
coast of Mexico. This system is expected to move generally westward
for the next day or two, and it could interact with a
westward-moving tropical wave during that time. Environmental
conditions are expected to support at least gradual development
during the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week. The system is forecast to turn
west-northwestward by mid-week and will likely continue moving in
that general direction through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[aspen]

GFS has a moderate Cat1 from the 20/80 AOI. Based on the EPac’s horrendous performance this year, I’ll put future Marie’s maximum possible intensity of 60 kt.