NE of OMAR

[Aric Dunn]

If Omar is a TC then the area NE of OMAR is as well .. and it has more convection with less shear..

Paulette might not be too far off here.. if that convection builds.

[cjrciadt]

Ballroom Dancing in the N Atlantic

[Ryxn]

I noticed this yesterday. If it can break from Omar and the trough and build some convection, NHC may have no choice but to name it.

[cainjamin]

Definitely pulsing some convection at the moment, but probably won't have enough time to sustain it to become a TC. Models swing it north across the Gulf Stream pretty quickly. Yet another example of how every little swirl seems to want to spin up this year though.

[cycloneye]

Good eye Aric:

Shower activity has increased today in association with a
non-tropical area of low pressure located over the north-central
Atlantic, about 625 miles south of Cape Race Newfoundland. Some
slight subtropical or tropical development of this system is
possible before it reaches cooler waters later on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[ClarCari]

If this takes Paulette I won’t be mad. We don’t need to retire this list’s P name again and Rene is an underrated boy’s name deserving of a fitting Cape Verde system.

[sma10]

If this takes Paulette I won’t be mad. We don’t need to retire this lists’ P name again and Rene is an underrated boy’s name deserving of a fitting Cape Verde system.

Once Rene forms, I'll bet 20 bucks at least half the people refer to it as "she"

[ClarCari]

If this takes Paulette I won’t be mad. We don’t need to retire this lists’ P name again and Rene is an underrated boy’s name deserving of a fitting Cape Verde system.

Once Rene forms, I'll bet 20 bucks at least half the people refer to it as "she"

I already saw on twitter someone say that Paulette, Rene[e], and Sally should be called The Real Housewives of the Atlantic

In other newssss does anyone think they are giving it a 20/20 shot for right now and gonna boost the odds up later so it doesn’t look as out of nowhere or are they being conservative bc they don’t think it will be anything?

Edit: Look at the center of it’s circulation (the right swirl) beginning to spark a liiiittle bit of convection going into the night!

https://twitter.com/anthonyduarte03/sta ... 16610?s=21

[Aric Dunn]

well from the looks of things...

we might have paulette sometime in the morning.

[ClarCari]

Definitely has a well-defined center, just needs to build a little more wind speed around it for a TS, the stronger winds are more on the northern side of the circulation. But it could already pass for TD right now or at least subtropically.

[USTropics]

Some convection has been seen popping up right over the center this morning:


CIMSS charts show this has quite the signal at the low-levels:


Mid and upper-levels are also looking good:




In my personal opinion, this is enough to warrant classification.

[ClarCari]

Some convection has been seen popping up right over the center this morning:
https://i.ibb.co/jfyWgWZ/12295034.gif

CIMSS charts show this has quite the signal at the low-levels:
https://i.imgur.com/BpvZ4si.gif

Mid and upper-levels are also looking good:
https://i.imgur.com/g7THEln.gif

https://i.imgur.com/NvypmFB.gif

In my personal opinion, this is enough to warrant classification.

YUP!

Personally I think the NHC may wait to see if that convection will boost the wind speeds to TS strength before classifying it. They may or may not bother with this system if it stays at just Depression strength. We’ll see!

[FireRat]

If this takes Paulette I won’t be mad. We don’t need to retire this list’s P name again and Rene is an underrated boy’s name deserving of a fitting Cape Verde system.

you know, in Spanish, the name 'Rene' is given to Kermit the frog.
I can see many funny memes popping up in Spanish should Rene become a notable storm.

[plasticup]

Looks pretty great to me!

[EquusStorm]

Convection died off in the last couple hours but that provides a great view of the vigorous surface spin. If this is not an occluded low and goes entirely non frontal an increase in convection could force advisories, just another sign of the ridiculously favorable background state with the slightest opportunity.

[Jr0d]

Convection died off in the last couple hours but that provides a great view of the vigorous surface spin. If this is not an occluded low and goes entirely non frontal an increase in convection could force advisories, just another sign of the ridiculously favorable background state with the slightest opportunity.

It may have been a tropical storm this morning. It will take a day of sustained convection to be classified in my opinion.

Regardless, it is incredible how fast and frequent these sub/tropical lows keep spinning up in the middle latitudes.

[us89]

Probabilities lowered to 0/0:

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the
north-central Atlantic about 500 miles south-southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland. This low is moving north-northeastward toward
cooler waters, and development as a subtropical or tropical cyclone
is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[us89]

And off the TWO. It was fun while it lasted.

[ElectricStorm]

Could this be a candidate for classification in post analysis?

[EquusStorm]

If it had at least tropical storm force winds (as I don't think they add depressions) and analysis confirmed it became entirely nonfrontal and at least somewhat warm core, maybe, though in retrospect I don't know if convection lasted as long as they usually wanna see. I've seen worse classified, but hard to say if they'll take a second look or not. I think it might have been classifiable briefly, but I'm kind of glad it didn't since we just have six names left