Tropical Wave off the African Coast (Is Invest 92L)

[TheStormExpert]

Thank you for posting. Seeing some interesting trends here. The 12Z runs are consistently north and the 00Z runs are consistently south. Hmmm. This latest run shows that one disturbance pretty far to the southwest. The GFS op the past several runs has also been trending more to the southwest with time. Keep posting these. This will be interesting to follow in the days ahead.

ok.
Here's the last 2 EMCF Track Density runs...
9/03 00z still 6 potential cyclones, the 3 likely candidates are tagged al91(NHC disturbance #1), al59 (NHC disturbance #2), and al61 (disturbance 3#).
https://i.ibb.co/3rhdY7b/ecmf-gen-atl-2020090300.png
09/03 12z - More agreement amongst the members for a short term west movement of al91,al59, and minor spinoffs al62, al63, which do not get flung as far west as the 00z...
https://i.ibb.co/KyPFmLQ/ecmf-gen-atl-2020090312.png

Last 2 Wind tracks I count 5, maybe 6 tracks
09/03 00z
https://i.ibb.co/yQqZBg7/basin-wind-ecmf-gen-atl-2020090300.png
09/03 12z
https://i.ibb.co/CK6rRpq/basin-wind-ecmf-gen-atl-2020090312.png

Where do you keep getting six potential TC's? I only count three.

[Spacecoast]

Thank you for posting. Seeing some interesting trends here. The 12Z runs are consistently north and the 00Z runs are consistently south. Hmmm. This latest run shows that one disturbance pretty far to the southwest. The GFS op the past several runs has also been trending more to the southwest with time. Keep posting these. This will be interesting to follow in the days ahead.

ok.
Here's the last 2 EMCF Track Density runs...
9/03 00z still 6 potential cyclones, the 3 likely candidates are tagged al91(NHC disturbance #1), al59 (NHC disturbance #2), and al61 (disturbance 3#).
https://i.ibb.co/3rhdY7b/ecmf-gen-atl-2020090300.png
09/03 12z - More agreement amongst the members for a short term west movement of al91,al59, and minor spinoffs al62, al63, which do not get flung as far west as the 00z...
https://i.ibb.co/KyPFmLQ/ecmf-gen-atl-2020090312.png

Last 2 Wind tracks I count 5, maybe 6 tracks
09/03 00z
https://i.ibb.co/yQqZBg7/basin-wind-ecmf-gen-atl-2020090300.png
09/03 12z
https://i.ibb.co/CK6rRpq/basin-wind-ecmf-gen-atl-2020090312.png

Where do you keep getting six potential TC's? I only count three.

There are six lines on the trend density graphics (median of ensemble tracks for each potential cyclone).
If you look closely, you can see tracks for al91(disturbance #2),al59(disturbance #3),and al61(disturbance#4).
In addition, al62, and al63, and al60 appear in beween these three likely candidates for genesis. al62 is the one that eventually goes west of 60W past 216 hour.(These 3 aren't likely to survive long)



On the 12z trend density, six tracks again, but al60 gets dropped, and al64 gets added. It's difficult to read in the middle of the mess.


as Aric mentioned, only 1 or 2 are likely the survive. al59(subject of this thread aka 'disturbance #3') is favored, along with al61(subject of 'Tropical wave to exit Africa this weekend' thread). GFS-Para takes these two into mid Atlantic

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located off the coast of west Africa is merging with
another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the
Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is expected
to be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west-
northwestward at about 15 mph. After that, a tropical depression is
more likely to form early next week over the central tropical
Atlantic where environmental conditions are forecast to be more
favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

91L is nearly completely strung out.. waves near Africa have pretty much merged and central convection taking over..


6z and 12z models will be changing .. likely showing only 1 system and without the hard right turn

[Fancy1001]

91L is nearly completely strung out.. waves near Africa have pretty much merged and central convection taking over..


6z and 12z models will be changing .. likely showing only 1 system and without the hard right turn

https://i.ibb.co/nwpCKpQ/Capture.png

Would that mean that there's more of a chance of it heading more westward, since it won't be doing the fujiwara dance and gaining more latitude.

[Aric Dunn]

91L is nearly completely strung out.. waves near Africa have pretty much merged and central convection taking over..


6z and 12z models will be changing .. likely showing only 1 system and without the hard right turn

https://i.ibb.co/nwpCKpQ/Capture.png

Would that mean that there's more of a chance of it heading more westward, since it won't be doing the fujiwara dance and gaining more latitude.

yeppers.

most of the northward progression in the models is due to the fujiwara type interactions.

[Shell Mound]

91L is nearly completely strung out.. waves near Africa have pretty much merged and central convection taking over..


6z and 12z models will be changing .. likely showing only 1 system and without the hard right turn

https://i.ibb.co/nwpCKpQ/Capture.png

Would that mean that there's more of a chance of it heading more westward, since it won't be doing the fujiwara dance and gaining more latitude.

yeppers.

most of the northward progression in the models is due to the fujiwara type interactions.

OT: if I recall correctly, didn’t Aric correctly guess that Laura would head farther southwest than models initially indicated? Maybe he will be right again.

[SFLcane]

91L is nearly completely strung out.. waves near Africa have pretty much merged and central convection taking over..


6z and 12z models will be changing .. likely showing only 1 system and without the hard right turn

https://i.ibb.co/nwpCKpQ/Capture.png

Would that mean that there's more of a chance of it heading more westward, since it won't be doing the fujiwara dance and gaining more latitude.

yeppers.

most of the northward progression in the models is due to the fujiwara type interactions.

Gfs this morning not as enthusiastic with development still shoots these waves through that break in the ridge in the central Atlantic. Has a major hurricane up near 30n not bothering no one.

[Spacecoast]

09/04 0z ECMF forecast track density:


09/04 0z ECMF forecast wind field: - 'new' al60 pops up s of bermuda?

[cycloneye]

Invest 92L is up