Tropical Wave off the African Coast (Is Invest 92L)

[us89]

Saved 12Z GFS loop with a recurve out into the Central Atlantic and even with it weak. The storm to the east also heads towards the North Atlantic graveyard:

https://i.postimg.cc/fyXDWhd2/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh78-240.gif

Aren't those recurving storms 91L and the wave currently still over Africa? Looks like this wave is the one that sort of falls apart as it approaches the Caribbean.

[ConvergenceZone]

Saved 12Z GFS loop with a recurve out into the Central Atlantic and even with it weak. The storm to the east also heads towards the North Atlantic graveyard:

https://i.postimg.cc/fyXDWhd2/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh78-240.gif

Yep, Going forward, any storms that will effect the USA will have to form in the Gulf, Carrib, or maybe just east of the islands, and that one is a big maybe

[TheProfessor]

Saved 12Z GFS loop with a recurve out into the Central Atlantic and even with it weak. The storm to the east also heads towards the North Atlantic graveyard:

https://i.postimg.cc/fyXDWhd2/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh78-240.gif

Yep, Going forward, any storms that will effect the USA will have to form in the Gulf, Carrib, or maybe just east of the islands, and that one is a big maybe

That's absolutely not true and is a dangerous thing to say.

[DestinHurricane]

Saved 12Z GFS loop with a recurve out into the Central Atlantic and even with it weak. The storm to the east also heads towards the North Atlantic graveyard:

https://i.postimg.cc/fyXDWhd2/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh78-240.gif

Yep, Going forward, any storms that will effect the USA will have to form in the Gulf, Carrib, or maybe just east of the islands, and that one is a big maybe

What? We aren't even to peak day yet and you're calling off any conus threats from the east. Conus could very well be hit from the east if the setup is right.

[LarryWx]

Saved 12Z GFS loop with a recurve out into the Central Atlantic and even with it weak. The storm to the east also heads towards the North Atlantic graveyard:

https://i.postimg.cc/fyXDWhd2/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh78-240.gif

Thanks, Gator. This excellent animation shows quite well that even strong H5 ridges are normally transitory. They strengthen and then weaken and/or move out. If this TC had been much further west with a similar H5 setup, then that would be dangerous for the CONUS.

[Hurricaneman]

Saved 12Z GFS loop with a recurve out into the Central Atlantic and even with it weak. The storm to the east also heads towards the North Atlantic graveyard:

https://i.postimg.cc/fyXDWhd2/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh78-240.gif

Yep, Going forward, any storms that will effect the USA will have to form in the Gulf, Carrib, or maybe just east of the islands, and that one is a big maybe

Some of the Euro and some of the GFS ensembles say no such creature

[ConvergenceZone]

Saved 12Z GFS loop with a recurve out into the Central Atlantic and even with it weak. The storm to the east also heads towards the North Atlantic graveyard:

https://i.postimg.cc/fyXDWhd2/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh78-240.gif

Yep, Going forward, any storms that will effect the USA will have to form in the Gulf, Carrib, or maybe just east of the islands, and that one is a big maybe

That's absolutely not true and is a dangerous thing to say.

You are right, I should have said “highly unlikely” that any storms in the far Atlantic will make it to the USA, based on watching storms over the last 4 decades that have formed out in the far Atlantic this time of year

Too many troughs and escape route options being the main reason, unless the timing is absolutely perfect

[gatorcane]

20/70:

A tropical wave located off the coast of west Africa is merging with
another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the
Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is likely to
be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west-
northwestward at about 15 mph. After that, a tropical depression
is more likely to form early next week over the central tropical
Atlantic where environmental conditions are forecast to be more
favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[blp]

I don't buy any of the runs. For the following reasons:

1. The evolution is complicated coming from a borad monsoon area that could produce multiple systems. We know how hard it is to model this evolution especially with the GFS and Euro struggling this year with cyclogenesis. We could end up with one or three systems.

2. These systems in close proximity tend to be weaker and usually don't spin up as quickly. Weaker system will move more west.

3. Models have significant differences modeling High Pressure/trough 5 days out. Things will constantly swing.

4. Most important it is 2020 expect the worst case scenario.

I would say this is as uncertain as forecasts get.

[TheStormExpert]

20/70:

A tropical wave located off the coast of west Africa is merging with
another disturbance located a couple of hundred miles south of the
Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in an extensive area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is likely to
be slow during the next couple of days while it moves west-
northwestward at about 15 mph. After that, a tropical depression
is more likely to form early next week over the central tropical
Atlantic where environmental conditions are forecast to be more
favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

No Invest tag yet?

[ouragans]

No Invest tag yet?

That's the 3rd straight time in the TWO this system has 20% at 48 hrs while it's over sea. That's very unusual not to have an invest at that point. They may have issues with finding a center

[SFLcane]

Big weakness “ trap door “ for these waves to recurve northward. You can see the ULL diving. Let’s hope trend keeps up

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro is the most probable evolution of this triple wave mess. for now anyway.

91L should get eaten. and the two other waves are already merging pretty quickly.

[TheStormExpert]

Big weakness “ trap door “ for these waves to recurve northward. Let’s hope trend keeps up

https://i.postimg.cc/50dFwfTn/EC56-D9-D4-FE2-F-4-B29-8-D96-F91-EDB42-C826.gif

I have a very hard time seeing this make it across with that kind of weakness between the two ridges. Smelling fishy right now!

[gatorcane]

Looks like pretty good consensus with the GFS on track recurving this into the Central Atlantic, ECMWF animation below:

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like pretty good consensus with the GFS on track recurving this into the Central Atlantic, ECMWF animation below:

https://i.postimg.cc/GthFNN3H/ecmwf-uv850-vort-atl-fh0-240.gif

Looks like the wave train is FINALLY commencing. Should be some good ACE producers that hopefully only threaten the fish.

[Aric Dunn]

I just hope the word Consensus is not used for at least 3 to 5 days lol..

[toad strangler]

I just hope the word Consensus is not used for at least 3 to 5 days lol..

"consensus" LOL oy vey, if this season has taught us anything it is that this word is NOT in the dictionary.

[emeraldislenc]

I know all seasons are different but Hugo formed off Africa and I think it was Sept.9 when it formed and I know some storms that hit or threatened NC formed in mid September off the Cape Verde islands. I will check the dates of other storms but when people say it is too late for a Cape Verde storm to hit the CONUS I just disagree.

[Spacecoast]

Thank you for posting. Seeing some interesting trends here. The 12Z runs are consistently north and the 00Z runs are consistently south. Hmmm. This latest run shows that one disturbance pretty far to the southwest. The GFS op the past several runs has also been trending more to the southwest with time. Keep posting these. This will be interesting to follow in the days ahead.

ok.
Here's the last 2 EMCF Track Density runs...
9/03 00z still 6 potential cyclones, the 3 likely candidates are tagged al91(NHC disturbance #1), al59 (NHC disturbance #2), and al61 (disturbance 3#).

09/03 12z - More agreement amongst the members for a short term west movement of al91,al59, and minor spinoffs al62, al63, which do not get flung as far west as the 00z...


Last 2 Wind tracks I count 5, maybe 6 tracks
09/03 00z

09/03 12z