Tropical Wave off the African Coast (Is Invest 92L)

[TheStormExpert]

Saved 12Z Euro animation from 96 through 240 hours. Ends up just NE of the Lesser Antilles:

https://i.postimg.cc/yNnSRnsj/ecmwf-uv850-vort-atl-fh96-240.gif

Dips SW near the islands. Worth keeping an eye on upper level conditions don’t like the best.

It’s hard to believe that UL conditions won’t be conducive on peak day.

[toad strangler]

Saved 12Z Euro animation from 96 through 240 hours. Ends up just NE of the Lesser Antilles:

https://i.postimg.cc/yNnSRnsj/ecmwf-uv850-vort-atl-fh96-240.gif

Dips SW near the islands. Worth keeping an eye on upper level conditions don’t like the best.

It’s hard to believe that UL conditions won’t be conducive on peak day.

It's just a day. Peak is a good 8 weeks long. Not one.

[gatorcane]

8pm TWO:

2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a
day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible
through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the
far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[AJC3]

"Interesting" run of the 00Z ECM, to say the least.

It brings the strong AEW off of Africa tomorrow, and moves the vort center westward along 18-19N for 3-4 days. All the while it keeps an embedded disurbance in the ITCZ quasi-stationary at around 10N between 35-40W. Around the time the AEW reaches 40W, it begins to interact with the ITCZ disturbance, initially turning WNW and getting near or just above 20N by SUN, then it slows down and bends back to the WSW, stalling around 17N, 50W by MON-TUE. The ITCZ disturbance then fujiwharas northward around the east side of the AEW, while A SEPARATE trough comes down into the subtropics from the ENE, to the north of the AEW. The AEW then fujjiwharas NNW around the east side of this new disturbance up to about 30N 55W by next THU, as both of these disturbances become embedded in a strong mid-upper level low.

Looks legit, huh... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a
day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible
through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the
far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[SFLcane]

"Interesting" run of the 00Z ECM, to say the least.

It brings the strong AEW off of Africa tomorrow, and moves the vort center westward along 18-19N for 3-4 days. All the while it keeps an embedded disurbance in the ITCZ quasi-stationary at around 10N between 35-40W. Around the time the AEW reaches 40W, it begins to interact with the ITCZ disturbance, initially turning WNW and getting near or just above 20N by SUN, then it slows down and bends back to the WSW, stalling around 17N, 50W by MON-TUE. The ITCZ disturbance then fujiwharas northward around the east side of the AEW, while A SEPARATE trough comes down into the subtropics from the ENE, to the north of the AEW. The AEW then fujjiwharas NNW around the east side of this new disturbance up to about 30N 55W by next THU, as both of these disturbances become embedded in a strong mid-upper level low.

Looks legit, huh... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

https://i.imgur.com/8rPl2JA.gif

Actually it’s coming around the idea of turning out to sea near 60W. EPS has been showing just that for many runs now. UKMET turns it north also pretty quickly. Harmless ace we shall see.

[gatorcane]

Up to 40%:

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a
day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible
through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the
far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[AJC3]

Actually it’s coming around the idea of turning out to sea near 60W. EPS has been showing just that for many runs now. UKMET turns it north also pretty quickly. Harmless ace we shall see.

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/9/1/ddae255bd29243aa9605fa93c61e88bb-full.png

The OTS near 60W part isn't as much of an issue with me as is the double-fujiwhara with two different disturbances that it does in the process.

[SFLcane]

Actually it’s coming around the idea of turning out to sea near 60W. EPS has been showing just that for many runs now. UKMET turns it north also pretty quickly. Harmless ace we shall see.

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/9/1/ddae255bd29243aa9605fa93c61e88bb-full.png

The OTS near 60W part isn't as much of an issue with me as is the double-fujiwhara with two different disturbances that it does in the process.

That’s if you trust the not worthy king ECMWF this season.

[gatorcane]

Up to 50%:

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in
about a day and merge with a disturbance centered about 200
miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of days.
Gradual development of this system is then possible, and this
system could become a tropical depression by this weekend while it
moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro track through 168 hours:

[TallahasseeMan]

12Z Euro track through 168 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/25wx6bwW/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-168.gif

Curious to see how this run ends...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12Z Euro track through 168 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/25wx6bwW/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-168.gif

Curious to see how this run ends...

Knowing the Euro? Probably an open wave.

[gatorcane]

Actually it’s coming around the idea of turning out to sea near 60W. EPS has been showing just that for many runs now. UKMET turns it north also pretty quickly. Harmless ace we shall see.

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/9/1/ddae255bd29243aa9605fa93c61e88bb-full.png

The OTS near 60W part isn't as much of an issue with me as is the double-fujiwhara with two different disturbances that it does in the process.

No more fujiwhara on the Euro as it has come to its senses. Setup looking at 500MB pattern looks a bit ominous to me.

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro track through 168 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/25wx6bwW/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-168.gif

Curious to see how this run ends...

Very very Irma-like - at least for the track. WSW dip and all.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 48 to 240 hour loop. Does look a bit like Irma as far as the SW dip:

[TallahasseeMan]

12Z Euro track through 168 hours:

https://i.postimg.cc/25wx6bwW/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-168.gif

Curious to see how this run ends...

Knowing the Euro? Probably an open wave.

Very interesting the Euro shows a conveyor belt coming off of Africa, even if the first wave turns OTS, many more threats right behind it.

[SconnieCane]

For people wondering where the "modelstorms" are as we approach peak...

9/1. Right on cue.

[EquusStorm]

Euro definitely seems to be sounding the alarm bells on the wave train, could be a bit of a delayed start with Sep 10-30 being active instead of 1-20 or so. Been some late September beasts in the mid-Atlantic, even; Isaac 2000 and Lorenzo come to mind immediately

[SFLcane]

Knowing euro this season that could easily be a hurricane.