ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[Highteeld]

[Aric Dunn]

annndd drum roll please..

here is ASCAT.

very likely would not be upgraded from this mess..

[SconnieCane]

If I recall correctly, the last Atlantic TC to have advisories initiated as a 45kt TS was Irma...

[GCANE]

A couple small cells with high helicity popping up in that high theta-e / CAPE air to the west of the CoC.
This air is dynamite. Watch when the core gets there.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Earliest 'N' storm I assume?

[Blinhart]

Didn't take long to go from PTC-16 to TS Nana.

[aspen]

Earliest 'N' storm I assume?

Correct. It beat Nate ‘05 by 4 days.

[GCANE]

Hmmm, a ML vort in the Yucatan channel.
Is that supposed to be there?

[HurricaneEnzo]

annndd drum roll please..

here is ASCAT.

very likely would not be upgraded from this mess..

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/asc_b_20200901_14_47_flag.png

Yeah you could look at this yesterday and see it was more than just a 'wave axis' despite what ASCAT was showing. ASCAT is awesome a majority of the time but we have seen it can be thrown for loops in situations like this.

[Airboy]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 16:15Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 12

A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 15:36:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.48N 77.60W
B. Center Fix Location: 118 statute miles (191 km) to the SSW (206°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 720m (2,362ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Open in the northeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 45kts (51.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the NNW (335°) of center fix at 15:35:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 64° at 53kts (From the ENE at 61.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the NNW (335°) of center fix at 15:35:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 53kts (61.0mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the ENE (74°) of center fix at 15:40:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 171° at 60kts (From the S at 69.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the ENE (78°) of center fix at 15:39:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 762m (2,500ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 759m (2,490ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.25 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the ENE (78°) from the flight level center at 15:39:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

[weeniepatrol]

F. Eye Character: Open in the northeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles

[Hypercane_Kyle]

annndd drum roll please..

here is ASCAT.

very likely would not be upgraded from this mess..

http://projects.knmi.nl/scatterometer/tile_prod/products/asc_b_20200901_14_47_flag.png

Yeah you could look at this yesterday and see it was more than just a 'wave axis' despite what ASCAT was showing. ASCAT is awesome a majority of the time but we have seen it can be thrown for loops in situations like this.

ASCAT doesn't have the resolution capability needed to be able to resolve small, weak LLCs. I miss QuikSCAT.

[wxman57]

VERY small radius of max winds found by recon. ASCAT would have a hard time resolving peak winds with such a small circulation. Micro storm.

[tiger_deF]

This might have been a TS a while ago

[aspen]

Nana’s extremely compact core is impressive. Once hot towers start firing around it, she is going to go nuts.

[Laminar]

Hmmm, a ML vort in the Yucatan channel.
Is that supposed to be there?

https://i.imgur.com/CPUsWFZ.png

I also saw they dropped the first radiosonde right around that point this morning.

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing this will back up to 06Z as a TC in the ultimate best track.

Anyway, the pinhole eye might be a hint of rapid deepening coming?

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1300833314413084674

[Aric Dunn]

54kts unflagged SFMR in the SE/S quad

[supercane4867]

Iris 2001 redux? Similar in track, size, and probably intensity if it gets to RI.