Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 91L)

[RL3AO]

Of course it also wouldn't be the first time the models show a TS at 30W heading out to sea and then six days later a solid wave is approaching the islands.

[plasticup]

Looks like 06z GFS blew this up, but 12z and 18z don't make much of it. I don't see much support from the other models either - am I wrong?

[AtlanticWind]

What is that convection between 35 and 40 degrees, I dont see a wave on the TWD.

[storminabox]

The Atlantic is puzzling me a bit currently

[catskillfire51]

The GFS Para on September 12th... hopefully that doesn't come fruition!

[sma10]

The GFS Para on September 12th... hopefully that doesn't come fruition!

Hopefully not! But it takes the oddest track I've ever seen in the Gulf. Approaches New Orleans, stalls just offshore for a day, then tracks due West to Southwest, perfectly tracing the shape of the coastline

[catskillfire51]

The GFS Para on September 12th... hopefully that doesn't come fruition!

Hopefully not! But it takes the oddest track I've ever seen in the Gulf. Approaches New Orleans, stalls just offshore for a day, then tracks due West to Southwest, perfectly tracing the shape of the coastline

Watching the afternoon news today, they were explaining that the cold front was coming through this week and then was going to be pushed out by a strong high pressure ridge coming in from the west and going from south Texas to Tennessee with a positive tilt. Seeing that and this it could make sense.

[Hurricaneman]

I figured out what the GFS is developing in the Bahamas and sending into Long Island, it’s this wave, while the euro does almost nothing with it.

What we thought the last few days developing strong is actually the wave currently over West Africa right behind it

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS animation from 78 to 168 hours. Looks like the setup for genesis is a little complicated:

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC animation. The model looks quite bullish, weak steering flow as well:

[SoupBone]

12Z CMC animation. The model looks quite bullish, weak steering flow as well:

https://i.postimg.cc/63TvC8ZJ/gem-z850-vort-atl-fh72-240.gif

How do you get these really large model run images?

[eastcoastFL]

That’s a weird discussion above. The top part of the wave will be moving rapidly, and the bottom half will be stationary? lol

I think the bottom half is glued to the ITCZ you can see it some model runs. It just can’t move

[AnnularCane]

That’s a weird discussion above. The top part of the wave will be moving rapidly, and the bottom half will be stationary? lol

I think the bottom half is glued to the ITCZ you can see it some model runs. It just can’t move

Yes, I remember the TWOs mentioning that earlier. So how is this going to get unstuck?

[eastcoastFL]

That’s a weird discussion above. The top part of the wave will be moving rapidly, and the bottom half will be stationary? lol

I think the bottom half is glued to the ITCZ you can see it some model runs. It just can’t move

Yes, I remember the TWOs mentioning that earlier. So how is this going to get unstuck?

I guess the northern half of the wave axis will beak away.

[curtadams]

120 to 240 hours ECMWF and GFS animations:

ECMWF:
https://i.postimg.cc/jSKJBKdw/ecmwf-uv850-vort-atl-fh120-240.gif

Speaking of the globals being out to sea, as it were, the ECMWF having a tropical storm move off the coast of Mauritania like that is crazy. I don't think anything like that has happened so far north.

[AnnularCane]

But what about the southern half? Is that the part we're going to have to watch? Sorry, I guess this wave is confusing me.

[Visioen]

12Z CMC animation. The model looks quite bullish, weak steering flow as well:

https://i.postimg.cc/63TvC8ZJ/gem-z850-vort-atl-fh72-240.gif

How do you get these really large model run images?

Regions -> North Atlantic

[Hurrilurker]

Maybe this is just a Gulf storm year...waves just need to traverse the Atlantic and survive weakly, stay south, then blow up south of Cuba.

[AnnularCane]

Maybe this is just a Gulf storm year...waves just need to traverse the Atlantic and survive weakly, stay south, then blow up south of Cuba.

These two waves certainly do seem to be in a holding pattern right now. The TWOs almost seem to be copied and pasted.

[eastcoastFL]

Maybe this is just a Gulf storm year...waves just need to traverse the Atlantic and survive weakly, stay south, then blow up south of Cuba.

These two waves certainly do seem to be in a holding pattern right now. The TWOs almost seem to be copied and pasted.

Looks like it breaks free around 9/5 or 9/6 on gfs. It’s crazy because it just swirls in a loop for a few days before breaking loose. But the tail end of it stays semi attached to the ITCZ for like a week plus until it gets to the islands.


Here’s where it starts it’s escape





Still not 100% free