Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 91L)

[St0rmTh0r]

That's a powerful storm GFS has. One of the strongest runs of the year. This should have everyones attention too. Laura may have just been the appetizer.

[ConvergenceZone]

That's a powerful storm GFS has. One of the strongest runs of the year. This should have everyones attention too. Laura may have just been the appetizer.

I think it’s positioning and lack of a strong Extensive Bermuda high above it will mean that it will probably be largely ignored, due to the high out to sea probability. I do hope it doesn’t hit our friends in Bermuda though

[SFLcane]

Pretty solid signal for a long-track recurver on GEFS-P

[GCANE]

It looked to me like the storm was heading Northwest in the last few frames. I couldn't imagine if a storm of that size and strength hit New York City.

Yup, I was thinking the same.

Do you think the high pressure system above it would prevent it from going out to sea and force it inland, or do you think it would be strong enough to ignore the high pressure system and be forced Eastward by the trough, or at least I think it's at trough lol.

I believe it is trending more west.
Of course its to early to say for sure.
A lot can happen, many dynamic factors in play.
Just need to keep an eye on it and try to figure its next move.

[Extratropical94]

Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean
just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The northern part of this
wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central
Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it
is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions.
However, the southern part of the wave is expected to be nearly
stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several
days, and some development of this system is possible early next
week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[ConvergenceZone]

That’s a weird discussion above. The top part of the wave will be moving rapidly, and the bottom half will be stationary? lol

[WxEp]

UKMET appears to keep it nearly stationary for the next several days since as far as I can tell it's referring to this wave.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.6N 27.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2020 120 13.6N 27.7W 1008 27
0000UTC 03.09.2020 132 15.0N 28.7W 1007 27
1200UTC 03.09.2020 144 15.3N 31.4W 1004 34

[CyclonicFury]

This may be a slow, complex genesis that the models will likely struggle with. They may flip flop between development and no development until (if) a well-defined center forms.

[tiger_deF]

This may be a slow, complex genesis that the models will likely struggle with. They may flip flop between development and no development until (if) a well-defined center forms.

Reminds me of another system

[cycloneye]

This may be a slow, complex genesis that the models will likely struggle with. They may flip flop between development and no development until (if) a well-defined center forms.

Reminds me of another system

Which one?

[wx98]

This may be a slow, complex genesis that the models will likely struggle with. They may flip flop between development and no development until (if) a well-defined center forms.

Reminds me of another system

Which one?

Laura?

[TheStormExpert]

This may be a slow, complex genesis that the models will likely struggle with. They may flip flop between development and no development until (if) a well-defined center forms.

That’s the theme this season. Waves struggling to develop in the Tropical Atlantic until they reach 50-60°W, meaning land impact becomes increasingly likely. Assuming a trough doesn’t setup shop along the U.S. East coast.

[TheStormExpert]

This may be a slow, complex genesis that the models will likely struggle with. They may flip flop between development and no development until (if) a well-defined center forms.

Reminds me of another system

Reminds me of two other systems at least!

[sma10]

This may be a slow, complex genesis that the models will likely struggle with. They may flip flop between development and no development until (if) a well-defined center forms.

Yes, I think it's fair to say this will be similar to Laura's genesis in that you're going to have numerous areas of low pressure along the ITCZ for the next few days before breaking free. I predict lots of different model solutions, and we can basically ignore them somewhat because, like Laura, we will not know much until (if) it actually forms

[gatorcane]

120 to 240 hours ECMWF and GFS animations:

ECMWF:


GFS:

[SFLcane]

120 to 240 hours ECMWF and GFS animations:

ECMWF:
https://i.postimg.cc/jSKJBKdw/ecmwf-uv850-vort-atl-fh120-240.gif

GFS:
https://i.postimg.cc/XqdpD1Rk/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh120-240.gif

Lol, does not even make past 60w. Nice ace while we

[Nimbus]

The forecast sounded like another ITCZ Suckling.
Early model runs favor out to sea solutions, but if there is real hope of the Summer Atlantic ridge breaking down I suppose it was worth looking at the long range model runs.

[Visioen]

That's a powerful storm GFS has. One of the strongest runs of the year. This should have everyones attention too. Laura may have just been the appetizer.

If true, then I forecast severe indigestion.

[ConvergenceZone]

I still think there will be a couple more hurricanes this season effecting land(in addition to several not affecting land) but I think the remainder of the storms will come from the Carib or Gulf

[TheStormExpert]

At this point since the global models are completely useless, it’s nowcasting. While the 12z GFS showed development in a week the 18z doesn’t show anything significant (not sure if it’s from this wave or not) until beyond 300hrs.