Global model tracks

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cycloneye
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Global model tracks

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 31, 2003 3:27 pm

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/19LGLB.html

In this run they have a consensus go into the GOM by the florida straits but the intensity forecast from them differ greatly one from another.
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#2 Postby gboudx » Fri Oct 31, 2003 3:33 pm

Pardon the ignorance, but what is the end date on those model runs? Meaning if I lived in Louisiana(and I do), when could I expect a bit more rain and wind? :)

George
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 31, 2003 3:46 pm

This is only one run 00z but other runs ahead may be more slow or more fast in movement so it is too early from this run to say for sure first if Louisiana will see this and second how many days it will take to get to that area if it goes to your area so stay tuned for more runs ahead.
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Oct 31, 2003 4:10 pm

Actually there's been a pretty tight consensus between these globals with that kind of track ... however, also at the same time, the appreciable weather may not even be anything most people on the GOM may even notice (with the overall fizzling depiction, the globals depict).

SF
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#5 Postby GulfBreezer » Fri Oct 31, 2003 4:14 pm

The track is one thing, but what about intensity? Are the models in agreement with that?
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 31, 2003 4:23 pm

No agreement on intensity some fizzle it as it enters the GOM,others go a little more strong but in terms of intensity no consensus like in the tracks.
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#7 Postby stormchazer » Fri Oct 31, 2003 4:28 pm

GulfBreezer wrote:The track is one thing, but what about intensity? Are the models in agreement with that?


TPC forecaster will tell you that intensity is the hardest of all to forecast. None of the models fair very well especially this early in a systems evolution.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

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ColdFront77

#8 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Oct 31, 2003 7:02 pm

What we are seeing in from previous runs and the current run may not be the same in future runs.

The overall track can easily change... so the location at the end of each models time frame, obviously may not be the same.
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