ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEdouard]

There’s no evidence of sustained Cat 5 level winds. It’s close, but neither the SFMR or the flight level winds justify the upgrade. Without at least one of those showing Cat 5 winds, I doubt Laura will be upgraded in post season analysis. The dropsonde alone is not adequate as winds gusting above 170 mph is expected in a 150 mph Cat 4.

Agreed. 135 knots is the highest I'd go; it's a borderline Category 4/5 hurricane, but there just isn't the recon data to indicate 140.

[cfisher]

I'm concerned about Lake Charles. If Laura brings enough water on shore with her, there'll be less friction to slow down winds deeper inland.

[wx98]

Edge of the eyewall is 15-20 miles from Cameron. Inner edge is 25 miles. Center of the eye is 35 miles.

[tolakram]

[mrbagyo]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1298832735885295616

[Kazmit]

Wow, they're really about to do one more pass.

[wx98]

Gonna get another recon pass from the NNE

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/MelindaDeslatte/status/1298802131466674178

[FLpanhandle91]

Does NHC bite on the dropsonde data and bump to cat 5? I'm thinking 936mb and 155mph for 11PM.

I think 155mph is still technically a cat 4 and I doubt they bump it all the way to 160mph.

It is according to this at Weather.gov (https://www.weather.gov/mfl/saffirsimpson ):

Category Five Hurricane

Category 5 Hurricane - Winds 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher or 252 km/hr or higher).

I know. I was suggesting that NHC would not upgrade.

[GeneratorPower]

Jim Cantore sounded a little pevved at those who are riding this out in cameron

Honestly they’re nuts to be riding a storm of this intensity out. The storm surge will be unsurvivable and wind damage will be catastrophic.

Anyone in Cameron has very low probability of surviving this based on surge.

[Beef Stew]

This is probably it then. Category 5, now or never. Would need to see flight level winds >150 kts I would think for a chance in post-analysis.

[St0rmTh0r]

Does it really matter at this point if its classified a cat 5? To the American people who are about to experience this are not going to be arguing about a 5 or 10 mph difference

[Blinhart]

https://twitter.com/MelindaDeslatte/status/1298802131466674178

I'm sorry to say it, but when I read this, all I can think of is that is at least 150 dead for this storm.

[Blinhart]

Does it really matter at this point if its classified a cat 5? To the American people who are about to experience this are not going to be arguing about a 5 or 10 mph difference

It actually does matter for FEMA and Insurance purposes

[Highteeld]

https://twitter.com/MelindaDeslatte/status/1298802131466674178

I'm sorry to say it, but when I read this, all I can think of is that is at least 150 dead for this storm.

That town is an RV park with a bank and a post office. not good.

[sponger]

People here have asked why would anyone stay? Ignorance. Survivors often say, "I thought it would not be that bad....." Famous last words. You chose not to educate yourself of the risks.

[FLpanhandle91]

Does it really matter at this point if its classified a cat 5? To the American people who are about to experience this are not going to be arguing about a 5 or 10 mph difference

I love weather and historically it is significant to have an operationally classified cat 5 at landfall. So yes, it matters.

[us89]

Wow, they're really about to do one more pass.

Welp, now I have to stay up another 20 minutes...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Interestingly, the long forecasted weakening as a result of shear right before landfall by the models did not materialize. It's there, but it did nothing to impede the progress of Laura this evening. Consistently remained 150 mph.

[cfisher]

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stati ... 94#sensors
Wonder if this station will survive a NE eyewall hit