ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

145kt FL winds...

[ConvergenceZone]

Jim Cantore sounded a little pevved at those who are riding this out in cameron

Good for him! Because those people are obviously on a suicide mission

[cfisher]

What a crazy storm. After all it's been through and putting in some final strengthening right before landfall, just insane.

[Highteeld]

147 knot FL winds with a ton of missing SFMR. We will never know.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

NHC agrees the dropsonde reading was false.


11:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26
Location: 29.2°N 93.2°W
Moving: NNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 938 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

[eastcoastFL]

Does NHC bite on the dropsonde data and bump to cat 5? I'm thinking 936mb and 155mph for 11PM.

I think 155mph is still technically a cat 4 and I doubt they bump it all the way to 160mph.

[TheStormExpert]

If this is a Cat.5 it’ll most likely get upgraded in post-analysis like Michael did. Though if this was a Cat.5 at landfall that would make a record for the shortest span between two given U.S. Cat.5 strikes which would be less than two years apart.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

There are issues with that sonde:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... -960e-163-


Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 235 gpm - 85 gpm (771 geo. feet - 279 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 149 knots (171 mph)


Might have reached 279 geo. feet possibly. There are other issues.

[eastcoastFL]

What a crazy storm. After all it's been through and putting in some final strengthening right before landfall, just insane.

One for the record books. I'm nervous to see what the aftermath looks like when the sun comes up.

[StPeteMike]

Sending my best wishes to everyone in the path of Laura. The area there has seen enough, unfortunately they’re a few hours away from another big one.

[Highteeld]

Could make an argument for a 936 mb pressure

[wx98]

Extreme wind warning issued

[Texas Snowman]

Does NHC bite on the dropsonde data and bump to cat 5? I'm thinking 936mb and 155mph for 11PM.

I think 155mph is still technically a cat 4 and I doubt they bump it all the way to 160mph.

It is according to this at Weather.gov (https://www.weather.gov/mfl/saffirsimpson ):

Category Five Hurricane

Category 5 Hurricane - Winds 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher or 252 km/hr or higher).

[HurricaneEdouard]

143 knot FL winds in the northeastern eyewall (would reduce down to 130 knots at the surface), SFMR 117 knots (but lots of missing data), 932.6mb extrapolated (before pressure data stopped transmitting), 936mb measured by dropsonde (939mb with 26 knots of wind).

I tend to favour 135 knots for intensity, personally, taking into account the radar data. Seems to be holding steady, possibly slightly intensifying again.

[Fancy1001]

Have them turn around and do one last pass through the northern eyewall.

[NDG]

Looks like is strengthening again. 932mb extrap pressure.

[TheStormExpert]

Jim Cantore sounded a little pevved at those who are riding this out in cameron

Honestly they’re nuts to be riding a storm of this intensity out. The storm surge will be unsurvivable and wind damage will be catastrophic.

[cfisher]

932.6 extrapolated. maybe some frictional stuff going on

[TallyTracker]

There’s no evidence of sustained Cat 5 level winds. It’s close, but neither the SFMR or the flight level winds justify the upgrade. Without at least one of those showing Cat 5 winds, I doubt Laura will be upgraded in post season analysis. The dropsonde alone is not adequate as winds gusting above 170 mph is expected in a 150 mph Cat 4.

[Hurricane Mike]

Those cold cloudtops around the eye are PERFECT